Anna Vignoles

The incidence and effects of overeducation in the U.K. graduate labour market

Abstract Research indicates that a significant proportion of the U.S. work force (between 11% and 40% of white males) have more education than is actually required for their jobs, i.e. are overeducated. We consider overeducation in the context of the U.K. graduate labour market, using a one in six sample of 1980 U.K. graduates surveyed in 1986. We find that 38% of graduates were overeducated for their first job and, even six years later (1986), 30% of the sample were overeducated. Most of the literature in this field has estimated the effect of overeducation on earnings and we confirm that the overeducated earn less than their peers in graduate jobs, indicating that the return on surplus education is less than the return on required education. We also frame two additional hypotheses based on human capital theory, related to the effects of degree class and sector, on the earnings of the overeducated. We do not find support for a strict human capital interpretation of the role of education in the U.K. graduate labour market and support an assignment model in which the characteristics of the job, as well as the individual, determine earnings. [JEL I21, J24]

The Returns to Academic and Vocational Qualifications in Britain

This paper uses data from the 1991 sweep of the National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 1998 Labour Force Survey (LFS) to provide a comprehensive analysis of the labour market returns to academic and vocational qualifications. The results show that the wage premia from academic qualifications are typically higher than from vocational qualifications. However, this gap is reduced somewhat, when we control for the amount of time taken to acquire different qualifications. This is particularly important for vocational courses, which generally take shorter time periods to complete. In the paper we also investigate how returns vary by gender, subsequent qualifications, and the natural ability of individuals. Finally, by comparing the NCDS results with those from the LFS, we estimate the bias that can result from not controlling for factors such as ability, family background and measurement error. The results reveal that the estimated returns in the NCDS equations controlling for ability, family background and measurement error are similar to the simple OLS estimates obtained with the LFS, which do not control for these factors. This suggests that the biases generally offset one another.

The determinants and labour market effects of lifelong learning

Despite the policy importance of lifelong learning, there is very little hard evidence from the UK on (a) who undertakes lifelong learning and why, and (b) the economic benefits of lifelong learning. This paper uses a rich longitudinal panel data set to look at key factors that determine whether someone undertakes lifelong learning and then models the effect of the different qualifications acquired via lifelong learning on individuals’ economic outcomes, namely wages and the likelihood of being employed. Those who left school with O-level qualifications or above were much more likely to undertake lifelong learning. Undertaking one episode of lifelong learning also increased the probability of undertaking more lifelong learning. We found little evidence of positive wage effects from lifelong learning. However, males who left school with only low-level qualifications do earn substantially more if they undertake a degree via lifelong learning. We also found important positive employment effects from lifelong learning.

Is children’s free school meal ‘eligibility’ a good proxy for family income?

Family income is an important factor associated with children’s educational achievement. However, key areas of UK research (for example, on socially segregated schooling) and policy (for example, the allocation of funding to schools) rely on children’s free school meal (FSM) ‘eligibility’ to proxy family income. This article examines the relationship between children’s FSM ‘eligibility’ and equivalent net household income in a nationally representative survey of England (the Family Resources Survey). It finds that children ‘eligible’ for FSM are much more likely than other children to be in the lowest income households. However, only around one‐quarter to one‐half of them were in the lowest income households in 2004/5. This is principally because the receipt of means‐tested benefits (and tax credits) pushes children eligible for FSM up the household income distribution. The implications for key areas of research and policy are discussed.

What Parents Want: School Preferences and School Choice

Parental demand for academic performance is a key element in the view that strengthening school choice will drive up school performance. In this paper we analyse what parents look for in choosing schools. We assemble a unique dataset combining survey information on parents’ choices plus a rich set of socio-economic characteristics; administrative data on school characteristics, admissions criteria and allocation rules; and spatial data attached to a pupil census to define the de facto set of schools available to each family in the survey. To achieve identification, we focus on cities where the school place allocation system is truth-revealing (“equal preferences”). We take great care in trying to capture the set of schools that each family could realistically choose from. We also look at a large subset of parents who continued living in the same house as before the child was born, to avoid endogenous house/school moves. We then model the choices made in terms of the characteristics of schools and families and the distances involved. School characteristics include measures of academic performance, school socio-economic and ethnic composition, and its faith school status. Initial results showed strong differences in the set of choices available to parents in different socio-economic positions. Our central analysis uses multinomial logistic regression to show that families do indeed value academic performance in schools. They also value school composition – preferring schools with low fractions of children from poor families. We compute trade-offs between these characteristics as well as between these and distance travelled. We are able to compare these trade-offs for different families. Our results suggest that preferences do not vary greatly between different socio-economic groups once constraints are fully accounted for.

What should an index of school segregation measure

The article aims to make a methodological contribution to the education segregation literature, providing a critique of previous measures of segregation used in the literature, as well as suggesting an alternative approach to measuring segregation. Specifically, the paper examines Gorard, Fitz and Taylor’s finding that social segregation between schools, as measured by free school meals (FSM) entitlement, fell significantly in the years following the 1988 Education Reform Act. Using Annual Schools Census data from 1989 to 2004, the paper challenges the magnitude of their findings, suggesting that the method used by Gorard et al. seriously overstates the size of the fall in segregation. We make the case for a segregation curve approach to measuring segregation, where comparisons of the level of segregation are possible regardless of the percentage FSM eligibility. Using this approach, we develop a new method for describing both the level and the location of school segregation.

The Widening Socio-Economic Gap in UK Higher Education

This paper provides up-to-date empirical evidence on the socio-economic gap in higher education (HE) participation, for the period spanning the introduction of tuition fees. We assess whether the gap has widened and ask whether the socio-economic gap emerges on entry into university or much earlier in the education system. We do this in two ways. Firstly we consider the likelihood of going to university for school leavers in poor neighbourhoods and analyse changes in this likelihood over time. Secondly, we use more detailed individual level data to model the determinants of HE participation, focusing on changes in the relationship between family background and HE participation over time. We find that the growth in HE participation amongst poorer students has been remarkably high, mainly because it was starting from such a low base. However, the gap between rich and poor, in terms of HE participation, has widened during the 1990s. Children from poor neighbourhoods have become relatively less likely to participate in HE since 1994/5, as compared to children from richer neighbourhoods. This trend started before the introduction of tuition fees. Much of the class difference in HE participation seems to reflect inequalities at earlier stages of the education system.

The Declining Relative Importance of Ability in Predicting Educational Attainment

Most countries seek to reduce inequality by encouraging educational attainment, particularly by striving for better outcomes for able individuals from poor backgrounds. We analyse whether this has been a feature of Britain’s substantial expansion of education during the past several decades. We use two unique longitudinal studies to test whether these improvements have been associated with changes in the role of cognitive ability and parental background in determining educational achievement. We find a decline in the importance of ability in explaining educational performance, in part because low ability children with high economic status experienced the largest increases in educational attainment.

Certifying the workforce: economic imperative or failed social policy?

The education policies of governments have become increasingly directed towards economic ends, including the development of workforce skills. UK governments have been particularly committed to such policies and have adopted some quite distinctive tools, relying heavily on targets and emphasizing certificated rather than uncertificated learning. The underlying assumptions of such policies have been subject to sustained critique, but there has been relatively little empirical evidence available regarding their impact on individual adult learners. This paper uses a large national longitudinal data set to examine whether governments in the UK have met their objectives and how far these are consistent with the learners’ own. It provides, in particular, detailed information on the factors affecting acquisition of additional formal qualifications in adult life and whether there has been any shift in favour of the less skilled in recent years. It also examines the extent to which qualifications, and especially those prioritized by government, lead to increased earnings for their holders. The results strongly suggest that current policies are failing even on their own terms. In conclusion the paper provides some possible explanations for the findings and sets them in an international context.

Researching the links between school resources and student outcomes in the UK: a review of issues and evidence

Knowledge of the effect of school resources on student outcomes is important for policy decisions concerning expenditure on schools. However, empirical research has so far produced equivocal findings. This paper examines the methodological and data requirements for good quality estimation of the education production function and reviews four UK studies that use pupil-level longitudinal data with a range of resource and control variables. These have produced some evidence of small resource effects on student outcomes and indicate the importance of model specification in affecting reported findings. If research in this area is to progress, high quality datasets are essential.