Anne C. de la Vega-Leinert

Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, “surplus land” for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Potential implications of sea-level rise for Great Britain

Abstract Large parts of the coasts of Great Britain (including England, Wales, and Scotland) already experience a number of problems, including sediment starvation and erosion, loss/degradation of coastal ecosystems, and significant exposure to coastal flooding. Sea-level rise and other potential climate change will exacerbate all of these issues. Coastal management is embracing sea-level rise and climate change as one of the long-term issues that must be addressed, while recent nonstatutory guidelines are encouraging decision makers and actors alike to promote integrated coastal-zone management. Hence, preparations for adaptation to sea-level rise are more advanced than in most European coastal countries. In England and Wales, it is recommended that new coastal defences consider an allowance for accelerated sea-level rise. Strategic shoreline management plans have also been prepared, which include proposals for managed retreat (termed managed realignment) in flood-prone areas with low levels of development, and allowing continued erosion of retreating cliffs. More strategic tools for coastal management are also being developed. Future needs include a better response to the uncertainties of climate change, better guidance on managing the interaction between river flooding and sea-level rise in coastal lowlands, regional analyses of changes in coastal ecosystem stocks, and flood management for London and the Thames River. Scotland requires more basic assessment to define the key issues and needs.

Implications of sea-level rise for Europe's coasts: An introduction

Abstract This paper introduces the collection of papers on impacts of sea-level rise on a number of European countries, and presents some overarching conclusions.