Anne-France Viet

Review and critical discussion of assumptions and modelling options to study the spread of the bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) within a cattle herd

Relevance of epidemiological models depends on assumptions on the population structure and dynamics, on the biology of the host-parasite interaction, and on mathematical modelling. In this paper we reviewed published models of the bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) spread within a herd. Modelling options and assumptions on herd dynamics and BVDV transmission were discussed. A cattle herd is a population with a controlled size. Animals are separated into subgroups according to their age or their physiological status inducing heterogeneity of horizontal transmission. Complexity of models results from: (1) horizontal and vertical virus transmission, (2) birth of persistently infected animals, (3) excretion by transiently and persistently infected animals. Areas where there was a lack of knowledge were identified. Assumptions on the force of infection used to model the horizontal virus transmission were presented and discussed. We proposed possible ways of improving models (e.g. force of infection, validation) and essential model features for further BVDV models.

Influence of the transmission function on a simulated pathogen spread within a population

The mathematical function for the horizontal transmission of a pathogen is a driving force of epidemiological models. This paper aims at studying the influence of different transmission functions on a simulated pathogen spread. These functions were chosen in the literature and their biological relevance is discussed. A theoretical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model was used to study the effect of the function used on simulated results. With a constant total population size, different equilibrium values for the number of infectious (NI) were reached, depending on the transmission function used. With an increasing population size, the transmission functions could be assimilated to either density-dependent (DD), where an equilibrium was obtained, or frequency-dependent (FD), with an exponential increase in NI. An analytical study corroborated the simulated results. As a conclusion, the choice between the different transmission functions, particularly between DD and FD, must be carefully considered for a varying population size.

Resilience of a beef cow-calf farming system to variations in demographic parameters.

Beef cow-calf farming systems are assumed to be resilient to biological disturbances that induce variations in herd demography; however, this hypothesis has not been fully investigated to date. Modeling is an interesting approach to study farming system resilience and to evaluate the impact of biological disturbances, taking into account interactions between system components, including biological variability and management practices. Our objective was to evaluate the resilience of beef cow-calf farming systems to variations in fertility and mortality using a modeling approach. We studied the direct effect of variations in demographic parameters on production objectives without explicitly representing the causes of the variations. We developed a stochastic model to represent the population dynamics of a beef cow-calf herd with breeding by natural service and biological processes occurring at the animal level. The model was validated by comparing observed and simulated distributions of the calving-to-calving interval, which were found to be consistent. Resistance was evaluated by the proportion of simulations where the objective in terms of number of weaned calves is reached even when there is a disturbance that persists for 10 yr. Reversibility was evaluated by the time needed to return to the predisturbance production level. Beef cow-calf farming systems did not appear to be resistant to variations in mortality and infertility rates except when increases in the infertility rates were low (0.02 for cows and 0.03 for heifers). Critical situations, consequently, may emerge with regard to farm production if management practices are not adapted. Reversibility was observed for disturbances that persist for up to 5 yr. However, the system needed 2 to 3 yr to recover its predisturbance production level and up to 4 yr after an increase in cow infertility of 0.12.