Anne M Johnson

Managing the health effects of climate change

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Effects of climate change on health will affect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, earthﾒs average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2ﾰC above preindustrial average temperature. Rises will be greater at higher latitudes, with medium-risk scenarios predicting 2ﾖ3ﾰC rises by 2090 and 4ﾖ5ﾰC rises in northern Canada, Greenland, and Siberia. In this report, we have outlined the major threatsﾗboth direct and indirectﾗto global health from climate change through changing patterns of disease, water and food insecurity, vulnerable shelter and human settlements, extreme climatic events, and population growth and migration. Although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global health.

Sexual behaviour in Britain: partnerships, practices, and HIV risk behaviours

BACKGROUND Sexual behaviour is a major determinant of sexual and reproductive health. We did a National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal 2000) in 1999-2001 to provide population estimates of behaviour patterns and to compare them with estimates from 1990-91 (Natsal 1990). METHODS We did a probability sample survey of men and women aged 16-44 years who were resident in Britain, using computer-assisted interviews. Results were compared with data from respondents in Natsal 1990. FINDINGS We interviewed 11161 respondents (4762 men, 6399 women). Patterns of heterosexual and homosexual partnership varied substantially by age, residence in Greater London, and marital status. In the past 5 years, mean numbers of heterosexual partners were 3.8 (SD 8.2) for men, and 2.4 (SD 4.6) for women; 2.6% (95% CI 2.2-3.1) of both men and women reported homosexual partnerships; and 4.3% (95% CI 3.7-5.0) of men reported paying for sex. In the past year, mean number of new partners varied from 2.04 (SD 8.4) for single men aged 25-34 years to 0.05 (SD 0.3) for married women aged 35-44 years. Prevalence of many reported behaviours had risen compared with data from Natsal 1990. Benefits of greater condom use were offset by increases in reported partners. Changes between surveys were generally greater for women than men and for respondents outside London. INTERPRETATION Our study provides updated estimates of sexual behaviour patterns. The increased reporting of risky sexual behaviours is consistent with changing cohabitation patterns and rising incidence of sexually transmitted infections. Observed differences between Natsal 1990 and Natsal 2000 are likely to result from a combination of true change and greater willingness to report sensitive behaviours in Natsal 2000 due to improved survey methodology and more tolerant social attitudes.

Sexual behaviour in Britain: early heterosexual experience.

BACKGROUND Relatively high rates of teenage conception and sexually transmitted infection among young people in Britain have focused attention on early sexual behaviour and its determinants. We report the results of the second National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal 2000). METHODS We did a probability sample survey between 1999 and 2001, of men and women aged 16-44 years in Britain. Participants were interviewed using a combination of computer-assisted face-to-face and self-completion questionnaires, and asked questions regarding first heterosexual intercourse, communication about sex, pregnancy, and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). FINDINGS We recruited 11161 men and women to the survey (4762 men, 6399 women). The proportion of those aged 16-19 years at interview reporting first heterosexual intercourse at younger than 16 years was 30% for men and 26% for women; median age was 16 years. The proportion of women reporting first intercourse before 16 years increased up to, but not after, the mid-1990s. There has been a sustained increase in condom use and a decline in the proportion of men and women reporting no contraceptive use at first intercourse with decreasing age at interview. Among 16-24 year olds, non-use of contraception increased with declining age at first intercourse; reported by 18% of men and 22% of women aged 13-14 years at occurrence. Early age at first intercourse was significantly associated with pregnancy under 18 years, but not with occurrence of STIs. Low educational attainment was associated with motherhood before 18 years, but not abortion. INTERPRETATION The increase in the proportion of women reporting first intercourse before age 16 years does not appear to have continued throughout the past decade. Only a small minority of teenagers have unprotected first intercourse, and early motherhood is more strongly associated with educational level than with family background. Factors most strongly associated with risk behaviour and adverse outcomes have considerable potential for preventive intervention.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent the acquisition of HIV-1 infection (PROUD): effectiveness results from the pilot phase of a pragmatic open-label randomised trial

Summary Background Randomised placebo-controlled trials have shown that daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir–emtricitabine reduces the risk of HIV infection. However, this benefit could be counteracted by risk compensation in users of PrEP. We did the PROUD study to assess this effect. Methods PROUD is an open-label randomised trial done at 13 sexual health clinics in England. We enrolled HIV-negative gay and other men who have sex with men who had had anal intercourse without a condom in the previous 90 days. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive daily combined tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (245 mg) and emtricitabine (200 mg) either immediately or after a deferral period of 1 year. Randomisation was done via web-based access to a central computer-generated list with variable block sizes (stratified by clinical site). Follow-up was quarterly. The primary outcomes for the pilot phase were time to accrue 500 participants and retention; secondary outcomes included incident HIV infection during the deferral period, safety, adherence, and risk compensation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN94465371) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02065986). Findings We enrolled 544 participants (275 in the immediate group, 269 in the deferred group) between Nov 29, 2012, and April 30, 2014. Based on early evidence of effectiveness, the trial steering committee recommended on Oct 13, 2014, that all deferred participants be offered PrEP. Follow-up for HIV incidence was complete for 243 (94%) of 259 patient-years in the immediate group versus 222 (90%) of 245 patient-years in the deferred group. Three HIV infections occurred in the immediate group (1·2/100 person-years) versus 20 in the deferred group (9·0/100 person-years) despite 174 prescriptions of post-exposure prophylaxis in the deferred group (relative reduction 86%, 90% CI 64–96, p=0·0001; absolute difference 7·8/100 person-years, 90% CI 4·3–11·3). 13 men (90% CI 9–23) in a similar population would need access to 1 year of PrEP to avert one HIV infection. We recorded no serious adverse drug reactions; 28 adverse events, most commonly nausea, headache, and arthralgia, resulted in interruption of PrEp. We detected no difference in the occurrence of sexually transmitted infections, including rectal gonorrhoea and chlamydia, between groups, despite a suggestion of risk compensation among some PrEP recipients. Interpretation In this high incidence population, daily tenofovir–emtricitabine conferred even higher protection against HIV than in placebo-controlled trials, refuting concerns that effectiveness would be less in a real-world setting. There was no evidence of an increase in other sexually transmitted infections. Our findings strongly support the addition of PrEP to the standard of prevention for men who have sex with men at risk of HIV infection. Funding MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, Public Health England, and Gilead Sciences.

Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population

CONTEXT Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

AIDS across Europe, 1994–98: the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND The clinical presentation of HIV-1 related diseases could have changed after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We aimed to assess changes over time in the incidence of ADIs overall and within CD4 lymphocyte count strata, the relationship with treatment and degree of immunodeficiency at diagnosis of ADIs. METHODS We did a prospective observational multicentre study of over 7300 patients in 52 European HIV-1 outpatient clinics. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years of observation were calculated. FINDINGS In total, we recorded 1667 new ADIs; the incidence of ADIs declined from 30.7 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1994 (95% CI 28.0-33.4) to 2.5 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1998 (95% CI 2.0-3.0, p<0.0001, test for trend). Median CD4 lymphocyte count at diagnosis of a new ADI increased from 28 cells/microL to 125 cells/microL between 1994 and 1998 (p<0.0001), yet a steep decline in the rate of ADIs was seen after stratification by latest CD4 lymphocyte count within each year (< or = 50, 51-200, and > 200 cells/microL). Patients on HAART had a lower rate of ADIs than patients not on this treatment within each CD4 lymphocyte count strata. The proportion of ADIs attributable to cytomegalovirus retinitis and Mycobacterium avium complex declined over time (p=0.0058 and 0.0022, respectively), whereas the proportion of diagnoses attributable to non-Hodgkin lymphoma has increased (p<0.0001). In 1994, less than 4% of ADIs were non-Hodgkin lymphoma, in 1998 the proportion was almost 16%. This condition has become one of the most common ADIs in patients on HAART. INTERPRETATION Our findings lend support to the idea that treatment regimens can lower the incidence of ADIs. The immediate risk of an ADI for a given CD4 lymphocyte count has declined over time and is lower among patients on HAART. Long-term follow-up of patients on combination treatment is essential to monitor the incidence of new and emerging diagnoses.

Sexual behaviour in Britain: reported sexually transmitted infections and prevalent genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection

BACKGROUND Studies of the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STI) are largely based on surveillance data. As part of a national survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles (Natsal 2000) in Britain, we estimated the frequency of self-reported STIs, and the prevalence of urinary Chlamydia trachomatis infection. METHODS We did a stratified probability sample survey of 11161 men and women aged 16-44 years in Britain. Computer assisted self-interviews contained items on the nature and timing of previously diagnosed STIs. Half of all sexually experienced respondents aged 18-44 years were invited to provide a urine sample for ligase chain reaction testing for C trachomatis infection. FINDINGS 10.8% of men and 12.6% of women reported ever having an STI, 3.6% of men and 4.1% of women reported ever being diagnosed with genital warts, and 1.4% of men and 3.1% of women reported previous infection with C trachomatis. 76% of men and 57% of women ever diagnosed with an STI had been to a GUM clinic. C trachomatis was found in 2.2% (95% CI 1.5-3.2) of men and 1.5% (95% CI 1.11-2.14) of women with age-specific prevalence being highest among men aged 25-34 (3.1%) and women aged 16-24 years (3.0%). Non-married status, age, and reporting partner concurrency or two or more sexual partners in the past year were independently associated with infection with C trachomatis. INTERPRETATION We show substantial heterogeneity in distribution of reported STIs, and the demographic and behavioural determinants of prevalent genital chlamydial infection. The results have potentially wide application for proposed chlamydia screening programmes which, given the demonstrated prevalence, must now proactively seek to involve men.

Recent epidemic of acute hepatitis C Virus in HIV-positive men who have sex with men linked to high-risk sexual behaviours.

Objective:To characterize the mode of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in a recent epidemic of acute HCV in HIV-infected individuals using linked molecular and clinical epidemiological studies. Design:Individuals diagnosed with acute HCV between 1999 and 2005 at three urban HIV units in the UK were enrolled into a phylogenetic and case–control study. Phylogenetic trees were constructed from the amplified sequences of the E1/E2 region of the HCV genome and were used to compare cases with unrelated sequences. A questionnaire-based, case–control study using matched controls recruited from each HIV unit identified putative transmission factors. Results:One hundred and eleven HIV-positive men who have sex with men with acute HCV (genotype 1: 84%) were enrolled. Phylogenetic analysis of 93 E1/E2 sequences revealed seven monophyletic clusters signifying multiple independent HCV lineages co-circulating in the HIV-positive population. Permucosal rather than percutaneous transmission factors were associated with case/control status. Cases (n = 60) had more sexual partners, increased levels of high-risk sexual behaviour and were more likely to have shared drugs via a nasal or anal route in the preceding year in comparison with controls (n = 130). Sex in a group of more than two people was the strongest predictor of case/control status; odds ratios associated with participation in two or at least three types of high-risk sexual behaviour in a group were 9.16 (95% confidence interval, 3.51–23.90) and 23.50 (95% confidence interval, 9.47–58.33), respectively. Conclusion:The identified co-circulating HCV lineages belong to different subtypes and genotypes, implying that rather than viral change, the epidemic is due to permucosal transmission factors that should be the focus of public health interventions.

Effectiveness of an influenza vaccine programme for care home staff to prevent death, morbidity, and health service use among residents: cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective To determine whether vaccination of care home staff against influenza indirectly protects residents. Design Pair matched cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting Large private chain of UK care homes during the winters of 2003-4 and 2004-5. Participants Nursing home staff (n=1703) and residents (n=2604) in 44 care homes (22 intervention homes and 22 matched control homes). Interventions Vaccination offered to staff in intervention homes but not in control homes. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was all cause mortality of residents. Secondary outcomes were influenza-like illness and health service use in residents. Results In 2003-4 vaccine coverage in full time staff was 48.2% (407/884) in intervention homes and 5.9% (51/859) in control homes. In 2004-5 uptake rates were 43.2% (365/844) and 3.5% (28/800). National influenza rates were substantially below average in 2004-5. In the 2003-4 period of influenza activity significant decreases were found in mortality of residents in intervention homes compared with control homes (rate difference −5.0 per 100 residents, 95% confidence interval −7.0 to −2.0) and in influenza-like illness (P=0.004), consultations with general practitioners for influenza-like illness (P=0.008), and admissions to hospital with influenza-like illness (P=0.009). No significant differences were found in 2004-5 or during periods of no influenza activity in 2003-4. Conclusions Vaccinating care home staff against influenza can prevent deaths, health service use, and influenza-like illness in residents during periods of moderate influenza activity. Trial registration National Research Register N0530147256.

Changes in sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain through the life course and over time: findings from the National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal)

Summary Background Sexual behaviour and relationships are key components of wellbeing and are affected by social norms, attitudes, and health. We present data on sexual behaviours and attitudes in Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales) from the three National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal). Methods We used a multistage, clustered, and stratified probability sample design. Within each of the 1727 sampled postcode sectors for Natsal-3, 30 or 36 addresses were randomly selected and then assigned to interviewers. To oversample individuals aged 16–34 years, we randomly allocated addresses to either the core sample (in which individuals aged 16–74 years were eligible) or the boost sample (in which only individuals aged 16–34 years were eligible). Interviewers visited all sampled addresses between Sept 6, 2010, and Aug 31, 2012, and randomly selected one eligible individual from each household to be invited to participate. Participants completed the survey in their own homes through computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and self-interview. We analysed data from this survey, weighted to account for unequal selection probabilities and non-response to correct for differences in sex, age group, and region according to 2011 Census figures. We then compared data from participants aged 16–44 years from Natsal-1 (1990–91), Natsal-2 (1999–2001), and Natsal-3. Findings Interviews were completed with 15 162 participants (6293 men, 8869 women) from 26 274 eligible addresses (57·7%). 82·1% (95% CI 81·0–83·1%) of men and 77·7% (76·7–78·7%) of women reported at least one sexual partner of the opposite sex in the past year. The proportion generally decreased with age, as did the range of sexual practices with partners of the opposite sex, especially in women. The increased sexual activity and diversity reported in Natsal-2 in individuals aged 16–44 years when compared with Natsal-1 has generally been sustained in Natsal-3, but in men has generally not risen further. However, in women, the number of male sexual partners over the lifetime (age-adjusted odds ratio 1·18, 95% CI 1·08–1·28), proportion reporting ever having had a sexual experience with genital contact with another woman (1·69, 1·43–2·00), and proportion reporting at least one female sexual partner in the past 5 years (2·00, 1·59–2·51) increased in Natsal-3 compared with Natsal-2. While reported number of occasions of heterosexual intercourse in the past 4 weeks had reduced since Natsal-2, we recorded an expansion of heterosexual repertoires—particularly in oral and anal sex—over time. Acceptance of same-sex partnerships and intolerance of non-exclusivity in marriage increased in men and women in Natsal-3. Interpretation Sexual lifestyles in Britain have changed substantially in the past 60 years, with changes in behaviour seeming greater in women than men. The continuation of sexual activity into later life—albeit reduced in range and frequency—emphasises that attention to sexual health and wellbeing is needed throughout the life course. Funding Grants from the UK Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust, with support from the Economic and Social Research Council and the Department of Health.