Anne Molcard

Modelling the transport and accumulation of floating marine debris in the Mediterranean basin.

In the era of plastic and global environmental issues, when large garbage patches have been observed in the main oceanic basins, this work is the first attempt to explore the possibility that similar permanent accumulation structures may exist in the Mediterranean Sea. The questions addressed in this work are: can the general circulation, with its sub-basins scale gyres and mesoscale instabilities, foster the concentration of floating items in some regions? Where are the more likely coastal zones impacted from open ocean sources? Multi-annual simulations of advected surface passive debris depict the Tyrrhenian Sea, the north-western Mediterranean sub-basin and the Gulf of Sirte as possible retention areas. The western Mediterranean coasts present very low coastal impact, while the coastal strip from Tunisia to Syria appears as the favourite destination. No permanent structure able to retain floating items in the long-term were found, as the basin circulation variability brings sufficient anomalies.

A Lagrangian model for tracking surface spills and SaR operations in the ocean

An operational model for tracking surface objects in the ocean is presented. Contrary to most of traditional Lagrangian Particle Tracking Algorithms, the presented approach computes the probability density function from the final position of a set of neutrally buoyant particles deployed in the flow providing the area of accumulated probability. The model departs from daily predictions of ocean surface currents, winds and waves provided by an Operational Forecasting System, and integrates the Eulerian velocities to obtain the trajectory of each particle forward in time. A random walk term is added to simulate numerical diffusivity. Several tests are performed in order to determine the optimal numerical scheme as well as the computational time step. To show the performance of the model we simulate the trajectories of a set of SVP-drifters deployed in the Balearic Sea. For these experiments, the final position of the drifters laid within the modeled contour of 50% of accumulated probability for the first 24?h forecast. An operational model for oil spill and SaR Operations is presented.The model includes advection from currents, waves and wind.Numerical diffusivity is computed from model simulations.The system provides areas of accumulated probability.The model is tested against the trajectory of three SVP-drifters.

A case study of the mesoscale dynamics in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea: a combined data–model approach

The Northern current is the main circulation feature of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea. While the large-scale to mesoscale variability of the northern current (NC) is well known and widely documented for the Ligurian region, off Nice or along the Gulf of Lions shelf, few is known about the current instabilities and its associated mesoscale dynamics in the intermediate area, off Toulon. Here, we took advantage of an oceanographic cruise of opportunity, the start of a HF radar monitoring programme in the Toulon area and the availability of regular satellite sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a data, to evaluate the realism of a NEMO-based regional high-resolution model and the added value brought by HF radar. The combined analysis of a 1/64° configuration, named GLAZUR64, and of all data sets revealed the occurrence of an anticyclonic coastal trapped eddy, generated inside a NC meander and passing the Toulon area during the field campaign. We show that this anticyclonic eddy is advected downstream along the French Riviera up to the study region and disturbs the Northern current flow. This study aims to show the importance of combining observations and modelling when dealing with mesoscale processes, as well as the importance of high-resolution modelling.

Empirical Forecasting of HF-Radar Velocity Using Genetic Algorithms

We present a coastal ocean current forecasting system using exclusively past observations of a high-frequency radar (HF-Radar). The forecast is made by developing a new approach based on physical and mathematical results of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory that allows to obtain a predictive equation for the currents. Using radial velocities from two HF-Radar stations, the spatiotemporal variability of the fields is first decomposed using the empirical orthogonal functions. The amplitudes of the most relevant modes representing their temporal evolution are then approximated with functions obtained through a genetic algorithm. These functions will be then combined to obtain the hourly currents at the area for the next 36 h. The results indicate that after 4 h and for a horizon of 24 h, the computed predictions provide more accurate current fields than the latest available field (i.e., persistent field).