Anne Roiko

Bayesian belief modeling of climate change impacts for informing regional adaptation options

A sequential approach to combining two established modeling techniques (systems thinking and Bayesian Belief Networks; BBNs) was developed and applied to climate change adaptation research within the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQ-CARI). Six participatory workshops involving 66 stakeholders based within SEQ produced six system conceptualizations and 22 alpha-level BBNs. The outcomes of the initial systems modeling exercise successfully allowed the selection of critical determinants of key response variables for in depth analysis within more homogeneous, sector-based groups of participants. Using two cases, this article focuses on the processes and methodological issues relating to the use of the BBN modeling technique when the data are based on expert opinion. The study expected to find both generic and specific determinants of adaptive capacity based on the perceptions of the stakeholders involved. While generic determinants were found (e.g. funding and awareness levels), sensitivity analysis identified the importance of pragmatic, context-based determinants, which also had methodological implications. The article raises questions about the most appropriate scale at which the methodology applied can be used to identify useful generic determinants of adaptive capacity when, at the scale used, the most useful determinants were sector-specific. Comparisons between individual BBN conditional probabilities identified diverging and converging beliefs, and that the sensitivity of response variables to direct descendant nodes was not always perceived consistently. It was often the accompanying narrative that provided important contextual information that explained observed differences, highlighting the benefits of using critical narrative with modeling tools.

Technical aspects of using human adenovirus as a viral water quality indicator

Despite dramatic improvements in water treatment technologies in developed countries, waterborne viruses are still associated with many of cases of illness each year. These illnesses include gastroenteritis, meningitis, encephalitis, and respiratory infections. Importantly, outbreaks of viral disease from waters deemed compliant from bacterial indicator testing still occur, which highlights the need to monitor the virological quality of water. Human adenoviruses are often used as a viral indicator of water quality (faecal contamination), as this pathogen has high UV-resistance and is prevalent in untreated domestic wastewater all year round, unlike enteroviruses and noroviruses that are often only detected in certain seasons. Standard methods for recovering and measuring adenovirus numbers in water are lacking, and there are many variations in published methods. Since viral numbers are likely under-estimated when optimal methods are not used, a comprehensive review of these methods is both timely and important. This review critically evaluates how estimates of adenovirus numbers in water are impacted by technical manipulations, such as during adenovirus concentration and detection (including culturing and polymerase-chain reaction). An understanding of the implications of these issues is fundamental to obtaining reliable estimation of adenovirus numbers in water. Reliable estimation of HAdV numbers is critical to enable improved monitoring of the efficacy of water treatment processes, accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, and to ensure microbiological safety of water.

Providing information promotes greater public support for potable recycled water

In spite of the clear need to address water security through sourcing new and alternative water supplies, there has been marked resistance from some communities to the introduction of recycled water for potable use. The present studies tested the effectiveness of providing relatively brief information about the recycled water process and the safety of recycled water on cognitive, emotional and behavioral responses. Three information conditions (basic information or basic information plus information about pollutants in the water, or information that puts the risk of chemicals in the water in perspective) were compared to a no information control condition. Across three experiments there was general support for the hypothesis that providing information would result in more positive cognitive, emotional, and behavioral responses to recycled water. Information increased comfort with potable recycled water and, in general, participants in the information conditions expressed more positive emotions (Experiment 1 & 3), less negative emotions (Experiment 3), more support (Experiment 1 & 3), and lower risk perceptions (Experiment 1 & 3) than those in the no information control condition. Participants who received information also drank more recycled water than control participants (Experiment 1 & 2, although the differences between conditions was not statistically significant) and were significantly more likely to vote in favor of the introduction of a recycled water scheme (Experiment 3). There was evidence, however, that providing information about the level of pollutants in recycled water may lead to ambivalent responses.

Socio-economic trends and climate change adaptation: the case of South East Queensland

The effectiveness of climate change responses is influenced by the adaptive capacity of communities within regions over spatial and temporal scales. While climate change projections are commonly used to set policy and management responses, they are not always coupled with socio-economic projections over the same time periods. This article explores the interplay between socio-economic characteristics and their potential implications for regional vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Population growth presents one of the biggest challenges for the South East Queensland region (SEQ) of Australia. Indigenous people, the aged, lone person households and single parent families show marked increases relative to other population segments. The literature suggests that these groups are more vulnerable to the risks associated with climate change. Population growth will not only increase the number of vulnerable groups, but also the demand for land, goods and services, including energy, infrastructure and ecosystem services. However, such data need to be integrated with context-specific data to account for spatial and temporal variations (or differences) in the adaptive capacity of communities.

Beyond QMRA: Modelling microbial health risk as a complex system using Bayesian networks

BACKGROUND Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is the current method of choice for determining the risk to human health from exposure to microorganisms of concern. However, current approaches are often constrained by the availability of required data, and may not be able to incorporate the many varied factors that influence this risk. Systems models, based on Bayesian networks (BNs), are emerging as an effective complementary approach that overcomes these limitations. OBJECTIVES This article aims to provide a comparative evaluation of the capabilities and challenges of current QMRA methods and BN models, and a scoping review of recent published articles that adopt the latter for microbial risk assessment. Pros and cons of systems approaches in this context are distilled and discussed. METHODS A search of the peer-reviewed literature revealed 15 articles describing BNs used in the context of QMRAs for foodborne and waterborne pathogens. These studies were analysed in terms of their application, uses and benefits in QMRA. DISCUSSION The applications were notable in their diversity. BNs were used to make predictions, for scenario assessment, risk minimisation, to reduce uncertainty and to separate uncertainty and variability. Most studies focused on a segment of the exposure pathway, indicating the broad potential for the method in other QMRA steps. BNs offer a number of useful features to enhance QMRA, including transparency, and the ability to deal with poor quality data and support causal reasoning. CONCLUSION The method has significant untapped potential to describe the complex relationships between microbial environmental exposures and health.

Evaluation of Pathogen Removal in a Solar Sludge Drying Facility Using Microbial Indicators

South East Queensland is one of the fastest growing regions in Australia with a correspondingly rapid increase in sewage production. In response, local councils are investing in more effective and sustainable options for the treatment and reuse of domestic and industrial effluents. A novel, evaporative solar dryer system has been installed on the Sunshine Coast to convert sewage sludge into a drier, usable form of biosolids through solar radiation exposure resulting in decreased moisture concentration and pathogen reduction. Solar-dried biosolids were analyzed for selected pathogenic microbial, metal and organic contaminants at the end of different drying cycles in a collaborative study conducted with the Regional Council. Although fecal coliforms were found to be present, enteroviruses, parasites, E. coli, and Salmonella sp. were not detected in the final product. However, elevated levels of zinc and copper were still present which restricted public use of the biosolids. Dilution of the dried biosolids with green waste as well as composting of the biosolids is likely to lead to the production of an environmentally safe, Class A end-product.

Modelling microbial health risk of wastewater reuse: A systems perspective.

There is a widespread need for the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine reclaimed water quality for specific uses, however neither faecal indicator levels nor pathogen concentrations alone are adequate for assessing exposure health risk. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model representing factors contributing to the microbiological health risks of reusing water treated in maturation ponds. This paper describes the development of an unparameterised model that provides a visual representation of theoretical constructs and variables of interest. Information was collected from the peer-reviewed literature and through consultation with experts from regulatory authorities and academic disciplines. In this paper we explore how, considering microbial risk as a modular system, following the QMRA framework enables incorporation of the many factors influencing human exposure and dose response, to better characterise likely human health impacts. By using and expanding upon the QMRA framework we deliver new insights into this important field of environmental exposures. We present a conceptual model of health risk of microbial exposure which can be used for maturation ponds and, more importantly, as a generic tool to assess health risk in diverse wastewater reuse scenarios.

Little evidence of human infection with equine influenza during the 2007 epizootic, Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Equine influenza virus (EIV) is considered enzootic in Europe (except Iceland), Asia, North Africa, and North and South America. When EIV outbreaks occur they may severely impact the equine and tourist industries. Australia faced its first EIV outbreak beginning in August of 2007. The outbreak was concentrated in New South Wales and Queensland, with more than 1400 confirmed EIV infections in horses during the first month. Rapid response from the equine industry and the federal government was successful and Australia was declared free from EIV by the end of 2007. OBJECTIVES This cross-sectional study was designed to examine associations between exposure to EIV-infected horses and evidence of EIV infection in humans. STUDY DESIGN Employing informed consent, between October 2007 and April 2008, 100 subjects (89 with horse exposures and 11 non-exposed) were enrolled during equine events and at the University of the Sunshine Coast. All subjects provided a blood sample and were asked to complete an online questionnaire including health history, animal exposure and demographic information. Sera samples were tested for the presence of antibodies against two H3N8 EIV strains using microneutralization, hemagglutination inhibition, and enzyme-linked lectin assays. RESULTS Evidence for H3N8 infection was sparse, with only 9 study participants having any indication of H3N8 infection and the seroreactivity seen was low and easily explained by cross-reactions against human influenza strains or vaccines. CONCLUSIONS These data provide little evidence to support the premise that EIV infections occurred among humans exposed to EIV-infected horses during the 2007 Australian epizootic.

The research-policy nexus in climate change adaptation: experience from the urban water sector in South East Queensland, Australia

Abstract Despite an exponential growth in the volume of adaptation research over the last decade, there is still a research gap in regard to the provision of suitable information to adequately inform climate change adaptation policy makers. Contributing to this gap is a paucity of research reporting on the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies. This paper reports on the success, failures and future risks of the responses taken by the South East Queensland (SEQ) water sector during the Millennium Drought. The adaptation strategy employed a portfolio approach mixing ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ adaptations. Strategies included the following: large-scale water manufacturing facilities and distribution networks; the exploitation of local water resources; regulatory instruments; institutional reforms; support for research and training and a range of demand management programmes. The strategies employed were innovative and in many cases required rigorous scientific evidence for their development, implementation and follow-up assessments. However, we show that there has been considerable disparity between anticipated and actual policy outcomes, which points to maladaptive consequences. By revisiting the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies in the SEQ water sector, our paper provides evidence for the need for integrative studies with genuine policy integration.

A systematic approach for modelling quantitative lake ecosystem data to facilitate proactive urban lake management

BackgroundThe management of the health of urban lake systems is often reactive and is instigated in response to poor aesthetic quality or physicochemical measurements, rather than from an overall assessment of ecosystem health. Interpreting physicochemical monitoring data in isolation is problematic for two main reasons: the suite of parameters that are monitored may be limited; and the contribution that any single parameter has towards water quality or health varies considerably depending on the nature of the system of interest. Extending monitoring programs to include flora and fauna results in a better dataset of ecosystem status, but also increases the complexity in interpreting whether the status is good or poor.ResultsThis paper details a process by which a large set of quantitative biological, physical, chemical and social indicators may be transformed into a simple, but informative, numerical index that represents the overall ecosystem health, while also identifying the likely source and scale of pressure for remedial management action. The flexibility of the proposed approach means that it can be readily adapted to other lake systems and environments, or even to include or exclude different indicators. A case study is presented in which the model is used to assess a comprehensive longitudinal dataset that resulted from monitoring a constructed urban lake in Southeast Queensland, Australia.ConclusionsThe sensitivity analysis and case study indicate that the model identifies how changes in individual monitoring parameters result in changes in overall ecosystem health, and thus illustrates its potential as a lake management tool.