Annelise Tran

Environmental predictors of West Nile fever risk in Europe.

BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen of global public health importance. Transmission of WNV is determined by abiotic and biotic factors. The objective of this study was to examine environmental variables as predictors of WNV risk in Europe and neighboring countries, considering the anomalies of remotely sensed water and vegetation indices and of temperature at the locations of West Nile fever (WNF) outbreaks reported in humans between 2002 and 2013.MethodsThe status of infection by WNV in relationship to environmental and climatic risk factors was analyzed at the district level using logistic regression models. Temperature, remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) anomalies, as well as population, birds’ migratory routes, and presence of wetlands were considered as explanatory variables.ResultsThe anomalies of temperature in July, of MNDWI in early June, the presence of wetlands, the location under migratory routes, and the occurrence of a WNF outbreak the previous year were identified as risk factors. The best statistical model according to the Akaike Information Criterion was used to map WNF risk areas in 2012 and 2013. Model validations showed a good level of prediction: area under Receiver Operator Characteristic curveu2009=u20090.854 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.856) for internal validation and 0.819 (95% Confidence Interval 0.814-0.823) (2012) and 0.853 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.855) (2013) for external validations, respectively.ConclusionsWNF incidence is increasing in Europe and WNV is expanding into new areas where it had never been observed before. Our model can be used to direct surveillance activities and public health interventions for the upcoming WNF season.

The diversity of microparasites of rodents: a comparative analysis that helps in identifying rodent-borne rich habitats in Southeast Asia

Background Predicting habitats prone to favor disease transmission is challenging due to confounding information on habitats, reservoirs, and diseases. Comparative analysis, which aims at investigating ecological and evolutionary patterns among species, is a tool that may help. The emergence of zoonotic pathogens is a major health concern and is closely linked to habitat modifications by human activities. Risk assessment requires a better knowledge of the interactions between hosts, parasites, and the landscape. Methods We used information from a field spatial study that investigated the distribution of murid rodents, in various habitats of three countries in Southeast Asia, in combination with their status of infection by 10 taxa of microparasites obtained from the literature. Microparasite species richness was calculated by rodent species on 20,272 rodents of 13 species. Regression tree models and generalized linear models were used to explain microparasite diversity by the average distance between the trapping site and five categories of land cover: forest, steep agriculture land, flat agriculture land, water, and built-up surfaces. Another variable taken into account was the slope. Results We found that microparasite diversity was positively associated with flat agriculture land, in this context mainly rice fields, and negatively associated with slope. Microparasite diversity decreased sharply a 100 m or less from flat agriculture land. Conclusion We conclude that there is high microparasite circulation in rodents of flooded farmlands, meaning possibly a higher risk of disease for human inhabitants.

Habitat fragmentation alters the properties of a host-parasite network: rodents and their helminths in South-East Asia

1. While the effects of deforestation and habitat fragmentation on parasite prevalence or richness are well investigated, host-parasite networks are still understudied despite their importance in understanding the mechanisms of these major disturbances. Because fragmentation may negatively impact species occupancy, abundance and co-occurrence, we predict a link between spatiotemporal changes in habitat and the architecture of host-parasite networks. 2. For this, we used an extensive data set on 16 rodent species and 29 helminth species from seven localities of South-East Asia. We analysed the effects of rapid deforestation on connectance and modularity of helminth-parasite networks. We estimated both the degree of fragmentation and the rate of deforestation through the development of land uses and their changes through the last 20 to 30 years in order to take into account the dynamics of habitat fragmentation in our statistical analyses. 3. We found that rapid fragmentation does not affect helminth species richness per se but impacts host-parasite interactions as the rodent-helminth network becomes less connected and more modular. 4. Our results suggest that parasite sharing among host species may become more difficult to maintain with the increase of habitat disturbance.

Assessing the distribution of disease‐bearing rodents in human‐modified tropical landscapes

* We tested how habitat structure and fragmentation affect the spatial distribution of common murine rodents inhabiting human-dominated landscapes in South-East Asia. The spatial distribution patterns observed for each rodent species were then used to assess how changes in habitat structure may potentially affect the risk of several major rodent-borne diseases. * For this analysis, we used an extensive geo-referenced data base containing details of rodents trapped from seven sites in Thailand, Cambodia and Lao PDR. We also developed land-cover layers for each site. Results from published studies that screened for five major rodent-borne pathogens in rodents were used to estimate how these pathogens would likely be impacted by these alterations in habitat structure and composition. * Our results confirmed the specialist and/or synanthropic status of several rodent species, although the majority of species studied demonstrated some degree of low level of habitat specialization. * Habitat diversity and its alteration (decreasing forest cover, increasing fragmentation, increasing urbanization) were found to favour the presence of synanthropic rodent species such as Rattus tanezumi, known to damage crops and host important rodent-borne diseases. * Synthesis and applications. The five major rodent-borne pathogens were linked to ongoing changes in habitat structure. In particular, the presence of Bartonella spp. and hantaviruses seemed to be favoured in wooded landscapes affected by ongoing fragmentation and human encroachments. Rodents also pose significant problems for crop production in South-East Asia. Our results showed that the structure of the landscape affects the likely presence of rodent species considered as agricultural pests. The patchy structure of a landscape can either enhance, such as B.xa0indica, or decrease, such as B.xa0savilei, the presence of rodents that may cause serious damage to crops.

Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices

BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus.MethodsWith a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population.ResultsExternal validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SDu2009=u20090.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future.ConclusionsPredictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.

#Trypanosoma# from rodents as potential source of infection in human-shaped landscapes of South-East Asia

Reports of atypical human cases of Trypanosoma lewisi or T. lewisi-like and Trypanosoma evansi infections have increased in South-East Asia, urging to investigate the possible links between humans, animal reservoirs and habitats. We tested how habitat structure affects the infection by Trypanosoma species of common murine rodents, inhabiting human-dominated landscapes in South East Asia. For this, we used geo-referenced data of rodents investigated for Trypanosoma infection and land cover maps produced for seven study sites in Thailand, Cambodia and Lao PDR. High prevalence of infection by T. lewisi was observed in rodents living near human settlement and in areas with high cover of built-up habitat, while the infection of rodents by T. evansi was explained by increased landscape patchiness and high cover of rain-fed agriculture lands. These results suggest a likely role of wild rodents as reservoir and possible source of atypical human infection by animal trypanosomes.

Progress on research on rodents and rodent-borne zoonoses in South-east Asia

Abstract. This review aims to synthesise knowledge regarding the taxonomy of South-east Asian murine rodents and the challenges associated with the identification of habitat preferences and associated rodent-borne diseases. Recent studies concerning the Rattini tribe have identified unclear species boundaries that would benefit from further investigation. The development of barcoding may allow more accurate identification of rodents, specifically for complex species. However, knowledge on the distribution and habitat specialisations of many common murine rodents is still scarce, particularly regarding the specific habitat preferences of most synanthropic rodent species (Rattus tanezumi or Rattus exulans). Several studies have analysed the prevalence of major rodent-borne diseases in South-east Asia and it appears that the greatest risk of rodent zoonoses are in the lowland rain-fed and irrigated landscapes, generally in and around rice fields.

Development and assessment of a geographic knowledge-based model for mapping suitable areas for Rift Valley fever transmission in Eastern Africa

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730–0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.

One Health and EcoHealth: the same wine in different bottles?

-- (Published: 17 February 2016) Citation: Infection Ecology and Epidemiology 2016, 6: 30978 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/iee.v6.30978

Environmental factors and public health policy associated with human and rodent infection by leptospirosis: a land cover-based study in Nan province, Thailand

Leptospirosis incidence has increased markedly since 1995 in Thailand, with the eastern and northern parts being the most affected regions, particularly during flooding events. Here, we attempt to overview the evolution of human prevalence during the past decade and identify the environmental factors that correlate with the incidence of leptospirosis and the clinical incidence in humans. We used an extensive survey of Leptospira infection in rodents conducted in 2008 and 2009 and the human incidence of the disease from 2003 to 2012 in 168 villages of two districts of Nan province in Northern Thailand. Using an ad-hoc developed land-use cover implemented in a geographical information system we showed that humans and rodents were not infected in the same environment/habitat in the land-use cover. High village prevalence was observed in open habitat near rivers for the whole decade, or in 2008-2009 mostly in rice fields prone to flooding, whereas infected rodents (2008-2009) were observed in patchy habitat with high forest cover, mostly situated on sloping ground areas. We also investigated the potential effects of public health campaigns conducted after the dramatic flood event of 2006. We showed that, before 2006, human incidence in villages was explained by the population size of the village according to the environmental source of infection of this disease, while as a result of the campaigns, human incidence in villages after 2006 appeared independent of their population size. This study confirms the role of the environment and particularly land use, in the transmission of bacteria, emphasized by the effects of the provincial public health campaigns on the epidemiological pattern of incidence, and questions the role of rodents as reservoirs.