Annett Wolf

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches.

Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar Arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling

This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere. Analyses based on remote sensing approaches that use a 20-year data record of satellite data indicate that tundra is greening in the Arctic, suggesting an increase in photosynthetic activity and net primary production. Modeling studies generally simulate a small net carbon sink for the distribution of Arctic tundra, a result that is within the uncertainty range of field-based estimates of net carbon exchange. Applications of process-based approaches for scenarios of future climate change generally indicate net carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra as enhanced vegetation production exceeds simulated increases in decomposition. However, methane emissions are likely to increase dramatically, in response to rising soil temperatures, over the next century. Key uncertainties in the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change include uncertainties in future fire regimes and uncertainties relating to changes in the soil environment. These include the response of soil decomposition and respiration to warming and deepening of the soil active layer, uncertainties in precipitation and potential soil drying, and distribution of wetlands. While there are numerous uncertainties in the projections of process-based models, they generally indicate that Arctic tundra will be a small sink for carbon over the next century and that methane emissions will increase considerably, which implies that exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and Arctic tundra ecosystems is likely to contribute to climate warming.

Variations in net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide in a boreal mire: Modeling mechanisms linked to water table position

[1] In mires, which occupy large areas of the boreal region, net ecosystem CO2 exchange ( NEE) rates vary significantly over various timescales. In order to examine the effect of one of the most influencing variables, the water table depth, on NEE the general ecosystem model GUESS-ROMUL was modified to predict mire daily CO2 exchange rates. A simulation was conducted for a lawn, the most common microtopographical feature of boreal oligotrophic minerotrophic mires. The results were validated against eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements from Degero Stormyr, northern Sweden, obtained during the period 2001 - 2003. Both measurements and model simulations revealed that CO2 uptake was clearly controlled by interactions between water table depth and temperature. Maximum uptake occurred when the water table level was between 10 and 20 cm and the air temperature was above 15 degrees C. When the water table was higher, the CO2 uptake rate was lower, owing to reduced rates of photosynthetic carbon fixation. When the water table was lower, NEE decreased owing to the increased rate of decomposition of organic matter. When the water table level was between 10 and 20 cm, the NEE was quite stable and relatively insensitive to both changes within this range and any air temperature changes above + 15 degrees C. The optimal water table level range for NEE corresponds to that characteristic of mire lawn plant communities, indicating that the annual NEE will not change dramatically if climatic conditions remain within the optimal range for the current plant community.

Poor methodology for predicting large-scale tree die-off

In a recent issue of PNAS, Adams et al. (1) project a 5-fold increase in the frequency of tree die-off in pinon (Pinus edulis) under drought in the southwestern United States due to elevated temperature alone. Their study is based on 10 excavated individuals grown in containers and exposed to complete drought under either ambient or elevated temperature (+4.3 °C, 5 replicates). Trees experiencing higher temperatures died 7 weeks earlier than control trees. The authors explain this by a trend to increased respiration under warmer conditions resulting in earlier carbon starvation. In addition to the recent letter by Sala (2) pointing out that there is no direct evidence for carbon starvation as a cause of tree death to date, we are concerned with (i) the methods used to arrive at Adams et al.s (1) interpretation and (ii) the way tree die-off is extrapolated to large spatio-temporal scales from their small sample size.

Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. in: BACC Author Group, Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin

The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.