Annette L. Schloss

Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term (1920-1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr(-1), which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O-2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated tin accordance with O-2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.

Potential evaporation functions compared on US watersheds: Possible implications for global-scale water balance and terrestrial ecosystem modeling

Estimates of potential evaporation Ep are commonly employed in terrestrial water balance and net primary productivity models. This study compared a set of 11 Ep methods in a global-scale water balance model (WBM) applied to 3265 0.5° (lat. × long.) grid cells representing the conterminous US. The Ep methods ranged from simple temperature-driven equations to physically-based combination approaches and include reference surface Epr and surface cover-dependent Eps algorithms. Cover-dependent parameters were assigned a priori based on grid cell vegetation. The WBM applies mean monthly climatic drivers and other biophysical inputs to compute water budgets on individual grid cells using a quasi-daily time step. For each Ep method water budgets were computed and compared against mean monthly and annual streamflow from 679 gauged watersheds, assumed to be representative of the grid cells in which they reside. Procedures were developed for excluding watersheds for which this assumption was questionable, and 330 of the original 1009 watersheds were removed from further analysis. Among Epr methods, the range of mean bias relative to observed runoff, and thus simulated actual evapotranspiration Es, varied from approximately −100 to +100 mm yr−1; Eps methods had a substantially smaller range, from about −50 to +50 mm yr−1. These results agree well with previous Ep intercomparison studies at the point scale. Some individual methods from both the Epr and Eps groups yielded relatively small overall bias when compared with observed discharge data, suggesting the utility of simple as well as physically-based evaporation functions in continental- and global-scale applications. For any individual method, the spatial distribution of Es across the US was significantly altered relative to that of Ep due to moisture-induced limits on soil drying. These limitations were most pronounced in hot, dry areas, where differences among Ep methods in excess of 700 mm yr−1 were reduced to differences of less than 200 mm yr−1 in Es and runoff. There was a correspondingly higher sensitivity of Es to the choice of Ep in more humid regions. These findings suggest that predictions made by macro-scale hydrology models like the WBM can be sensitive to the specific Ep method applied and that this sensitivity results in bias relative to measured components of the terrestrial water cycle. The adoption of particular Ep functions within such models should be conditioned upon the comparison of water budget calculations to suitable records of observed discharge.

Equilibrium responses of global net primary production and carbon storage to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide: Sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration

We ran the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) for the globe at 0.5° resolution for atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 340 and 680 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to evaluate global and regional responses of net primary production (NPP) and carbon storage to elevated CO2 for their sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration. At 340 ppmv, TEM estimated global NPP of 49.0 1015 g (Pg) C yr−1 and global total carbon storage of 1701.8 Pg C; the estimate of total carbon storage does not include the carbon content of inert soil organic matter. For the reference simulation in which doubled atmospheric CO2 was accompanied with no change in vegetation nitrogen concentration, global NPP increased 4.1 Pg C yr−1 (8.3%), and global total carbon storage increased 114.2 Pg C. To examine sensitivity in the global responses of NPP and carbon storage to decreases in the nitrogen concentration of vegetation, we compared doubled CO2 responses of the reference TEM to simulations in which the vegetation nitrogen concentration was reduced without influencing decomposition dynamics (“lower N” simulations) and to simulations in which reductions in vegetation nitrogen concentration influence decomposition dynamics (“lower N+D” simulations). We conducted three lower N simulations and three lower N+D simulations in which we reduced the nitrogen concentration of vegetation by 7.5, 15.0, and 22.5%. In the lower N simulations, the response of global NPP to doubled atmospheric CO2 increased approximately 2 Pg C yr−1 for each incremental 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, and vegetation carbon increased approximately an additional 40 Pg C, and soil carbon increased an additional 30 Pg C, for a total carbon storage increase of approximately 70 Pg C. In the lower N+D simulations, the responses of NPP and vegetation carbon storage were relatively insensitive to differences in the reduction of nitrogen concentration, but soil carbon storage showed a large change. The insensitivity of NPP in the N+D simulations occurred because potential enhancements in NPP associated with reduced vegetation nitrogen concentration were approximately offset by lower nitrogen availability associated with the decomposition dynamics of reduced litter nitrogen concentration. For each 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, soil carbon increased approximately an additional 60 Pg C, while vegetation carbon storage increased by only approximately 5 Pg C. As the reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration gets greater in the lower N+D simulations, more of the additional carbon storage tends to become concentrated in the north temperate-boreal region in comparison to the tropics. Other studies with TEM show that elevated CO2 more than offsets the effects of climate change to cause increased carbon storage. The results of this study indicate that carbon storage would be enhanced by the influence of changes in plant nitrogen concentration on carbon assimilation and decomposition rates. Thus changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration may have important implications for the ability of the terrestrial biosphere to mitigate increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and climate changes associated with the increases.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models through simulations of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2: First results of a model intercomparison study

Results of an intercomparison among terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs) are reported, in which one diagnostic and five prognostic models have been run with the same long-term climate forcing. Monthly fields of net ecosystem production (NEP), which is the difference between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration RH, at 0.5° resolution have been generated for the terrestrial biosphere. The monthly estimates of NEP in conjunction with seasonal CO2 flux fields generated by the seasonal Hamburg Model of the Oceanic Carbon Cycle (HAMOCC3) and fossil fuel source fields were subsequently coupled to the three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model TM2 forced by observed winds. The resulting simulated seasonal signal of the atmospheric CO2 concentration extracted at the grid cells corresponding to the locations of 27 background monitoring stations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory network is compared with measurements from these sites. The Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model (SDBM1), which is tuned to the atmospheric CO2 concentration at five monitoring stations in the northern hemisphere, successfully reproduced the seasonal signal of CO2 at the other monitoring stations. The SDBM1 simulations confirm that the north-south gradient in the amplitude of the atmospheric CO2 signal results from the greater northern hemisphere land area and the more pronounced seasonality of radiation and temperature in higher latitudes. In southern latitudes, ocean-atmosphere gas exchange plays an important role in determining the seasonal signal of CO2. Most of the five prognostic models (i.e., models driven by climatic inputs) included in the intercomparison predict in the northern hemisphere a reasonably accurate seasonal cycle in terms of amplitude and, to some extent, also with respect to phase. In the tropics, however, the prognostic models generally tend to overpredict the net seasonal exchanges and stronger seasonal cycles than indicated by the diagnostic model and by observations. The differences from the observed seasonal signal of CO2 may be caused by shortcomings in the phenology algorithms of the prognostic models or by not properly considering the effects of land use and vegetation fires on CO2 fluxes between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere.

Analyzing the discharge regime of a large tropical river through remote sensing, ground‐based climatic data, and modeling

This study demonstrates the potential for applying passive microwave satellite sensor data to infer the discharge dynamics of large river systems using the main stem Amazon as a test case. The methodology combines (1) interpolated ground-based meteorological station data, (2) horizontally and vertically polarized temperature differences (HVPTD) from the 37-GHz scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite, and (3) a calibrated water balance/water transport model (WBM/WTM). Monthly HVPTD values at 0.25° (latitude by longitude) resolution were resampled spatially and temporally to produce an enhanced HVPTD time series at 0.5° resolution for the period May 1979 through February 1985. Enhanced HVPTD values were regressed against monthly discharge derived from the WBM/WTM for each of 40 grid cells along the main stem over a calibration period from May 1979 to February 1983 to provide a spatially contiguous estimate of time-varying discharge. HVPTD-estimated flows generated for a validation period from March 1983 to February 1985 were found to be in good agreement with both observed arid modeled discharges over a 1400-km section of the main stem Amazon. This span of river is bounded downstream by a region of tidal influence and upstream by low sensor response associated with dense forest canopy. Both the WBM/WTM and HVPTD-derived flow rates reflect the significant impact of the 1982–1983 El Nino-;Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on water balances within the drainage basin.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate and land-use effects

An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.

A laboratory system for examining the influence of light on diel activity of stream macro-invertebrates

I describe a laboratory system for investigating the role of light as a proximate cue for diel changes in locomotor activity and vertical location on the substrate of stream macro-invertebrates. The system consisted of computer-controlled halogen lamps positioned over a laboratory stream in which video-recordings were made of Stenonema modestum mayfly nymphs located on the undersides of unglazed tile substrates. Locomotor activity of study organisms in response to light changes were quantified during computer-programmed and reproducible light/dark (LD) cycles. The system provided the flexibility to simulate a variety of light environments so that the separate influences of light intensity and light change on diel activities of individuals and populations could be examined, which is difficult under natural light conditions. As a group, nymphs responded similarly to simulated twilight (light decrease from 7.9 × 102 to 6.9 × 10−2 μW cm−2 at a constant –1.9 × 10−3 s−1 rate of relative light change) and to natural twilight, suggesting that proposed mechanisms of light control of diel activities in nature can be adequately tested in the simulated environment. However, locomotor activity and vertical movements among individual mayflies were highly variable under controlled conditions, suggesting that physiological differences influence their responses to environmental conditions.

Using Icebox to View and Explore Satellite Images of the Gulf of Maine

A Web-based system using satellite imagery for studying changes in chlorophyll and sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Maine is described. The system was created by combining the image composite editor (ICE), a simple web-based visualization and analysis tool developed for the NASA Earth Observatory, with a data processing stream used by the Coastal Ocean Observing Center at the University of New Hampshire. The system, called ICEbox, provides easy access to a suite of historical and near-real time images from the MODIS sensor aboard NASAs TERRA and AQUA satellites. This paper demonstrates a method for getting timely and important research-quality data into the classroom that is easily reproducible by projects that use remotely-sensed data.