Annika Rosengren

Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Events

BACKGROUNDnThe optimal range of sodium intake for cardiovascular health is controversial.nnnMETHODSnWe obtained morning fasting urine samples from 101,945 persons in 17 countries and estimated 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion (used as a surrogate for intake). We examined the association between estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular events.nnnRESULTSnThe mean estimated sodium and potassium excretion was 4.93 g per day and 2.12 g per day, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, the composite outcome occurred in 3317 participants (3.3%). As compared with an estimated sodium excretion of 4.00 to 5.99 g per day (reference range), a higher estimated sodium excretion (≥ 7.00 g per day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.30), as well as increased risks of death and major cardiovascular events considered separately. The association between a high estimated sodium excretion and the composite outcome was strongest among participants with hypertension (P=0.02 for interaction), with an increased risk at an estimated sodium excretion of 6.00 g or more per day. As compared with the reference range, an estimated sodium excretion that was below 3.00 g per day was also associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.44). As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a reduced risk of the composite outcome.nnnCONCLUSIONSnIn this study in which sodium intake was estimated on the basis of measured urinary excretion, an estimated sodium intake between 3 g per day and 6 g per day was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events than was either a higher or lower estimated level of intake. As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

Association of Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion with Blood Pressure

BACKGROUNDnHigher levels of sodium intake are reported to be associated with higher blood pressure. Whether this relationship varies according to levels of sodium or potassium intake and in different populations is unknown.nnnMETHODSnWe studied 102,216 adults from 18 countries. Estimates of 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion were made from a single fasting morning urine specimen and were used as surrogates for intake. We assessed the relationship between electrolyte excretion and blood pressure, as measured with an automated device.nnnRESULTSnRegression analyses showed increments of 2.11 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure and 0.78 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure for each 1-g increment in estimated sodium excretion. The slope of this association was steeper with higher sodium intake (an increment of 2.58 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure per gram for sodium excretion >5 g per day, 1.74 mm Hg per gram for 3 to 5 g per day, and 0.74 mm Hg per gram for <3 g per day; P<0.001 for interaction). The slope of association was steeper for persons with hypertension (2.49 mm Hg per gram) than for those without hypertension (1.30 mm Hg per gram, P<0.001 for interaction) and was steeper with increased age (2.97 mm Hg per gram at >55 years of age, 2.43 mm Hg per gram at 45 to 55 years of age, and 1.96 mm Hg per gram at <45 years of age; P<0.001 for interaction). Potassium excretion was inversely associated with systolic blood pressure, with a steeper slope of association for persons with hypertension than for those without it (P<0.001) and a steeper slope with increased age (P<0.001).nnnCONCLUSIONSnIn this study, the association of estimated intake of sodium and potassium, as determined from measurements of excretion of these cations, with blood pressure was nonlinear and was most pronounced in persons consuming high-sodium diets, persons with hypertension, and older persons. (Funded by the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario and others.).

Glycemic Control and Excess Mortality in Type 1 Diabetes

BACKGROUNDnThe excess risk of death from any cause and of death from cardiovascular causes is unknown among patients with type 1 diabetes and various levels of glycemic control. We conducted a registry-based observational study to determine the excess risk of death according to the level of glycemic control in a Swedish population of patients with diabetes.nnnMETHODSnWe included in our study patients with type 1 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register after January 1, 1998. For each patient, five controls were randomly selected from the general population and matched according to age, sex, and county. Patients and controls were followed until December 31, 2011, through the Swedish Register for Cause-Specific Mortality.nnnRESULTSnThe mean age of the patients with diabetes and the controls at baseline was 35.8 and 35.7 years, respectively, and 45.1% of the participants in each group were women. The mean follow-up in the diabetes and control groups was 8.0 and 8.3 years, respectively. Overall, 2701 of 33,915 patients with diabetes (8.0%) died, as compared with 4835 of 169,249 controls (2.9%) (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.06 to 4.04); the corresponding rates of death from cardiovascular causes were 2.7% and 0.9% (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.60; 95% CI, 3.47 to 6.10). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for death from any cause according to the glycated hemoglobin level for patients with diabetes as compared with controls were 2.36 (95% CI, 1.97 to 2.83) for a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or lower (≤52 mmol per mole), 2.38 (95% CI, 2.02 to 2.80) for a level of 7.0 to 7.8% (53 to 62 mmol per mole), 3.11 (95% CI, 2.66 to 3.62) for a level of 7.9 to 8.7% (63 to 72 mmol per mole), 3.65 (95% CI, 3.11 to 4.30) for a level of 8.8 to 9.6% (73 to 82 mmol per mole), and 8.51 (95% CI, 7.24 to 10.01) for a level of 9.7% or higher (≥83 mmol per mole). Corresponding hazard ratios for death from cardiovascular causes were 2.92 (95% CI, 2.07 to 4.13), 3.39 (95% CI, 2.49 to 4.61), 4.44 (95% CI, 3.32 to 5.96), 5.35 (95% CI, 3.94 to 7.26), and 10.46 (95% CI, 7.62 to 14.37).nnnCONCLUSIONSnIn our registry-based observational study, patients with type 1 diabetes and a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or lower had a risk of death from any cause or from cardiovascular causes that was twice as high as the risk for matched controls. (Funded by the Swedish Society of Medicine and others.).

Cardiovascular Risk and Events in 17 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries

BACKGROUNDnMore than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur in low-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown.nnnMETHODSnWe enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural communities in 17 countries (3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessed their cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score for quantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higher scores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incident cardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years.nnnRESULTSnThe mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediate in middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001). However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-income countries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 person-years vs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Case fatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3% in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P=0.01). Urban communities had a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower rates of cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) and case fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medications and revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-income countries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001).nnnCONCLUSIONSnAlthough the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates of major cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in high-income countries may have been mitigated by better control of risk factors and more frequent use of proven pharmacologic therapies and revascularization. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

Excess Mortality among Persons with Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUNDnThe excess risks of death from any cause and death from cardiovascular causes among persons with type 2 diabetes and various levels of glycemic control and renal complications are unknown. In this registry-based study, we assessed these risks according to glycemic control and renal complications among persons with type 2 diabetes.nnnMETHODSnWe included patients with type 2 diabetes who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register on or after January 1, 1998. For each patient, five controls were randomly selected from the general population and matched according to age, sex, and county. All the participants were followed until December 31, 2011, in the Swedish Registry for Cause-Specific Mortality.nnnRESULTSnThe mean follow-up was 4.6 years in the diabetes group and 4.8 years in the control group. Overall, 77,117 of 435,369 patients with diabetes (17.7%) died, as compared with 306,097 of 2,117,483 controls (14.5%) (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 1.16). The rate of cardiovascular death was 7.9% among patients versus 6.1% among controls (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.15). The excess risks of death from any cause and cardiovascular death increased with younger age, worse glycemic control, and greater severity of renal complications. As compared with controls, the hazard ratio for death from any cause among patients younger than 55 years of age who had a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or less (≤52 mmol per mole of nonglycated hemoglobin) was 1.92 (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.11); the corresponding hazard ratio among patients older than 75 years of age or older was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.96). Among patients with normoalbuminuria, the hazard ratio for death among those younger than 55 years of age with a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or less, as compared with controls, was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.40 to 1.82); the corresponding hazard ratio among patients older than 75 years of age or older was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78), and patients 65 to 75 years of age also had a significantly lower risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.91).nnnCONCLUSIONSnMortality among persons with type 2 diabetes, as compared with that in the general population, varied greatly, from substantial excess risks in large patient groups to lower risks of death depending on age, glycemic control, and renal complications. (Funded by the Swedish government and others.).

Availability and affordability of cardiovascular disease medicines and their effect on use in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: an analysis of the PURE study data

BACKGROUNDnWHO has targeted that medicines to prevent recurrent cardiovascular disease be available in 80% of communities and used by 50% of eligible individuals by 2025. We have previously reported that use of these medicines is very low, but now aim to assess how such low use relates to their lack of availability or poor affordability.nnnMETHODSnWe analysed information about availability and costs of cardiovascular disease medicines (aspirin, β blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and statins) in pharmacies gathered from 596 communities in 18 countries participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Medicines were considered available if present at the pharmacy when surveyed, and affordable if their combined cost was less than 20% of household capacity-to-pay. We compared results from high-income, upper middle-income, lower middle-income, and low-income countries. Data from India were presented separately given its large, generic pharmaceutical industry.nnnFINDINGSnCommunities were recruited between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2013. All four cardiovascular disease medicines were available in 61 (95%) of 64 urban and 27 (90%) of 30 rural communities in high-income countries, 53 (80%) of 66 urban and 43 (73%) of 59 rural communities in upper middle-income countries, 69 (62%) of 111 urban and 42 (37%) of 114 rural communities in lower middle-income countries, eight (25%) of 32 urban and one (3%) of 30 rural communities in low-income countries (excluding India), and 34 (89%) of 38 urban and 42 (81%) of 52 rural communities in India. The four cardiovascular disease medicines were potentially unaffordable for 0·14% of households in high-income countries (14 of 9934 households), 25% of upper middle-income countries (6299 of 24,776), 33% of lower middle-income countries (13,253 of 40,023), 60% of low-income countries (excluding India; 1976 of 3312), and 59% households in India (9939 of 16,874). In low-income and middle-income countries, patients with previous cardiovascular disease were less likely to use all four medicines if fewer than four were available (odds ratio [OR] 0·16, 95% CI 0·04-0·57). In communities in which all four medicines were available, patients were less likely to use medicines if the household potentially could not afford them (0·16, 0·04-0·55).nnnINTERPRETATIONnSecondary prevention medicines are unavailable and unaffordable for a large proportion of communities and households in upper middle-income, lower middle-income, and low-income countries, which have very low use of these medicines. Improvements to the availability and affordability of key medicines is likely to enhance their use and help towards achieving WHOs targets of 50% use of key medicines by 2025.nnnFUNDINGnPopulation Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, AstraZeneca (Canada), Sanofi-Aventis (France and Canada), Boehringer Ingelheim (Germany and Canada), Servier, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, King Pharma, and national or local organisations in participating countries.

Body weight in adolescence and long-term risk of early heart failure in adulthood among men in Sweden

Abstract Aims To study the relation between body mass index (BMI) in young men and risk of early hospitalization with heart failure. Methods and results In a prospective cohort study, men from the Swedish Conscript Registry investigated 1968–2005 (n = 1 610 437; mean age, 18.6 years were followed 5–42 years (median, 23.0 years; interquartile range, 15.0–32.0), 5492 first hospitalizations for heart failure occurred (mean age at diagnosis, 46.6 (SD 8.0) years). Compared with men with a body mass index (BMI) of 18.5–20.0 kg/m2, men with a BMI 20.0–22.5 kg/m2 had an hazard ratio (HR) of 1.22 (95% CI, 1.10–1.35), after adjustment for age, year of conscription, comorbidities at baseline, parental education, blood pressure, IQ, muscle strength, and fitness. The risk rose incrementally with increasing BMI such that men with a BMI of 30–35 kg/m2 had an adjusted HR of 6.47 (95% CI, 5.39–7.77) and those with a BMI of ≥35 kg/m2 had an HR of 9.21 (95% CI, 6.57–12.92). The multiple-adjusted risk of heart failure per 1 unit increase in BMI ranged from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.11) in heart failure associated with valvular disease to 1.20 (95% CI, 1.18–1.22) for cases associated with coronary heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension. Conclusion We found a steeply rising risk of early heart failure detectable already at a normal body weight, increasing nearly 10-fold in the highest weight category. Given the current obesity epidemic, heart failure in the young may increase substantially in the future and physicians need to be aware of this.

Long-term excess risk of heart failure in people with type 1 diabetes: a prospective case-control study

BACKGROUNDnDiabetes is an established risk factor for heart failure, but because nearly all heart failure occurs in older individuals, the excess risk and risk factors for heart failure in individuals with type 1 diabetes are not known. We aimed to determine the excess risk of heart failure in individuals with type 1 diabetes overall and by different levels of glycaemic control and albuminuria.nnnMETHODSnIn this prospective case-control study, we identified all individuals with type 1 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2011, and five controls randomly selected from the general population for each patient, matched according to age, sex, and county, and compared them with respect to subsequent hospital admissions for heart failure, with hazard ratios calculated with Cox regression.nnnFINDINGSnIn a cohort of 33u2008402 patients (mean age at baseline 35 years [SD 14], 15u2008058 [45%] women, and mean duration of diabetes 20·1 years [SD 14·5]), over a mean follow-up of 7·9 years, 1062 (3%) patients were admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of heart failure, compared with 1325 (1%) of 166u2008228 matched controls over 8·3 years, giving a HR 4·69 (95% CI 3·64-6·04), after adjustment for time-updated age, sex, time-updated diabetes duration, birth in Sweden, educational level, and baseline comorbidities. Worse glycaemic control was associated with increased risk of heart failure in a graded fashion, and so was the presence of albuminuria. Risk of heart failure was also increased among those with well controlled diabetes (adjusted HR 2·16 [95% CI 1·55-3·01]) and in those with no albuminuria (3·38 [2·51-4·57]), but not in the subgroup both well-controlled and with normoalbuminuria (1·59 [0·70-3·58]).nnnINTERPRETATIONnIndividuals with type 1 diabetes had a four-times increase in the risk of being admitted to hospital with heart failure compared with population-based controls. Poor glycaemic control and impaired renal function substantially increased the risk of heart failure.nnnFUNDINGnThe Swedish state, Swedish Society for Physicians, the Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board (Region Vastra Gotaland, Sweden), the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, Diabetes Wellness, Novo Nordisk Foundation (PI M Lind), the Swedish Research Council, and the Swedish Council for working life and social research (Epilife).