Anoop Shankar

Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts: a collaborative meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Substantial controversy surrounds the use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria to define chronic kidney disease and assign its stages. We undertook a meta-analysis to assess the independent and combined associations of eGFR and albuminuria with mortality. METHODS In this collaborative meta-analysis of general population cohorts, we pooled standardised data for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality from studies containing at least 1000 participants and baseline information about eGFR and urine albumin concentrations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with eGFR and albuminuria, adjusted for potential confounders. FINDINGS The analysis included 105,872 participants (730,577 person-years) from 14 studies with urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) measurements and 1,128,310 participants (4,732,110 person-years) from seven studies with urine protein dipstick measurements. In studies with ACR measurements, risk of mortality was unrelated to eGFR between 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 105 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and increased at lower eGFRs. Compared with eGFR 95 mL/min/1.73 m(2), adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.18 (95% CI 1.05-1.32) for eGFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), 1.57 (1.39-1.78) for 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and 3.14 (2.39-4.13) for 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2). ACR was associated with risk of mortality linearly on the log-log scale without threshold effects. Compared with ACR 0.6 mg/mmol, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.20 (1.15-1.26) for ACR 1.1 mg/mmol, 1.63 (1.50-1.77) for 3.4 mg/mmol, and 2.22 (1.97-2.51) for 33.9 mg/mmol. eGFR and ACR were multiplicatively associated with risk of mortality without evidence of interaction. Similar findings were recorded for cardiovascular mortality and in studies with dipstick measurements. INTERPRETATION eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and ACR 1.1 mg/mmol (10 mg/g) or more are independent predictors of mortality risk in the general population. This study provides quantitative data for use of both kidney measures for risk assessment and definition and staging of chronic kidney disease. FUNDING Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), US National Kidney Foundation, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.Background A comprehensive evaluation of the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with mortality is required for assessment of the impact of kidney function on risk in the general population, with implications for improving the definition and staging of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD Study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate

CONTEXT The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation more accurately estimates glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation using the same variables, especially at higher GFR, but definitive evidence of its risk implications in diverse settings is lacking. OBJECTIVE To evaluate risk implications of estimated GFR using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation in populations with a broad range of demographic and clinical characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A meta-analysis of data from 1.1 million adults (aged ≥ 18 years) from 25 general population cohorts, 7 high-risk cohorts (of vascular disease), and 13 CKD cohorts. Data transfer and analyses were conducted between March 2011 and March 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause mortality (84,482 deaths from 40 cohorts), cardiovascular mortality (22,176 events from 28 cohorts), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (7644 events from 21 cohorts) during 9.4 million person-years of follow-up; the median of mean follow-up time across cohorts was 7.4 years (interquartile range, 4.2-10.5 years). RESULTS Estimated GFR was classified into 6 categories (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) by both equations. Compared with the MDRD Study equation, 24.4% and 0.6% of participants from general population cohorts were reclassified to a higher and lower estimated GFR category, respectively, by the CKD-EPI equation, and the prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) was reduced from 8.7% to 6.3%. In estimated GFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the MDRD Study equation, 34.7% of participants were reclassified to estimated GFR of 60 to 89 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the CKD-EPI equation and had lower incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) for the outcomes of interest (9.9 vs 34.5 for all-cause mortality, 2.7 vs 13.0 for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.5 vs 0.8 for ESRD) compared with those not reclassified. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86) for all-cause mortality, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.82) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.27-0.88) for ESRD. Similar findings were observed in other estimated GFR categories by the MDRD Study equation. Net reclassification improvement based on estimated GFR categories was significantly positive for all outcomes (range, 0.06-0.13; all P < .001). Net reclassification improvement was similarly positive in most subgroups defined by age (<65 years and ≥65 years), sex, race/ethnicity (white, Asian, and black), and presence or absence of diabetes and hypertension. The results in the high-risk and CKD cohorts were largely consistent with the general population cohorts. CONCLUSION The CKD-EPI equation classified fewer individuals as having CKD and more accurately categorized the risk for mortality and ESRD than did the MDRD Study equation across a broad range of populations.

Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality

IMPORTANCE The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. OBJECTIVE To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

Prospective cohort study of retinal vessel diameters and risk of hypertension

Abstract Objective To examine the relation between diameters of the retinal arterioles and 10 year incidence of hypertension. Design Population based prospective cohort study. Setting Beaver Dam eye study. Participants 2451 normotensive people aged 43 to 84 years. Main outcome measures Diameters of retinal arterioles and venules measured from digitised photographs of the retina taken at baseline. Measurements summarised as the arteriole:venule ratio, with a lower ratio indicating smaller arteriolar diameters. Incident hypertension, defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or use of antihypertensive drugs during follow up. Results 721 participants developed hypertension over a 10 year period. Those with lower arteriole:venule ratio had a higher cumulative incidence of hypertension (incidences of 17.4%, 24.1%, 31.0%, and 45.1%, respectively, for decreasing quarters of distribution of arteriole:venule ratio). After adjustment for age and sex, participants with arteriole:venule ratios in the lowest quarter had a threefold higher risk of hypertension (odds ratio 2.95, 95% confidence interval 2.77 to 3.88) than those with ratios in the highest quarter. This association remained significant after further adjustment for baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressure and other risk factors (1.82, 1.39 to 2.40, for lowest versus highest ratio quarters). Conclusions Narrowed retinal arterioles are associated with long term risk of hypertension, suggesting that structural alterations of the microvasculature may be linked to the development of hypertension.

The Relationship Between Surgeon and Hospital Volume and Outcomes for Shoulder Arthroplasty

BACKGROUND As far as we know, no previous study has determined the relationship between volume and outcomes for shoulder arthroplasty. We hypothesized that surgeons and hospitals with higher caseloads of total shoulder arthroplasties and hemiarthroplasties have better outcomes as measured by decreased mortality rate, shorter length of stay in the hospital, reduced postoperative complications, and routine disposition of patients on discharge. METHODS Data on patients undergoing shoulder arthroplasty were extracted from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample databases for the years 1988 through 2000. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations and multiple linear regression models were used to estimate the adjusted association between surgeon and hospital volume and outcomes for total shoulder arthroplasty and hemiarthroplasty after adjusting for comorbidity, age, race, household income, and sex. RESULTS The mortality rates for patients who had a total shoulder arthroplasty performed by surgeons who did fewer than two procedures per year (0.36%) or who did between two and fewer than four procedures per year (0.32%) were higher than those for patients who had a total shoulder arthroplasty performed by surgeons who did four procedures or more per year (0.20%). The risk-adjusted rate of postoperative complications after hemiarthroplasty was significantly higher for patients managed by surgeons who performed fewer than two procedures per year (1.68%) than for those managed by surgeons with a volume of five procedures or more per year (0.97%). The possibility of postoperative complications when total shoulder arthroplasty was performed in hospitals with a volume of fewer than five procedures (1.44%) or in those with a volume of five to ten procedures per year (1.45%) was significantly higher than that in hospitals where ten procedures or more were performed every year (0.64%). The mean lengths of stay in the hospital after total shoulder arthroplasty and hemiarthroplasty were significantly longer when the operations were performed by surgeons who did fewer than two procedures per year or when they were done in hospitals with a volume of fewer than five procedures per year or with a volume of five to fewer than ten procedures per year than when they were done in hospitals or by surgeons in the highest volume category (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Patients who have a total shoulder arthroplasty or hemiarthroplasty performed by a high-volume surgeon or in a high-volume hospital are more likely to have a better outcome. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Therapeutic study, Level III-2 (retrospective cohort study). See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

The C8 Health Project: Design, Methods, and Participants

Background The C8 Health Project was created, authorized, and funded as part of the settlement agreement reached in the case of Jack W. Leach, et al. v. E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (no. 01-C-608 W.Va., Wood County Circuit Court, filed 10 April 2002). The settlement stemmed from the perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA, or C8) contamination of drinking water in six water districts in two states near the DuPont Washington Works facility near Parkersburg, West Virginia. Objectives This study reports on the methods and results from the C8 Health Project, a population study created to gather data that would allow class members to know their own PFOA levels and permit subsequent epidemiologic investigations. Methods Final study participation was 69,030, enrolled over a 13-month period in 2005–2006. Extensive data were collected, including demographic data, medical diagnoses (both self-report and medical records review), clinical laboratory testing, and determination of serum concentrations of 10 perfluorocarbons (PFCs). Here we describe the processes used to collect, validate, and store these health data. We also describe survey participants and their serum PFC levels. Results The population geometric mean for serum PFOA was 32.91 ng/mL, 500% higher than previously reported for a representative American population. Serum concentrations for perfluorohexane sulfonate and perfluorononanoic acid were elevated 39% and 73% respectively, whereas perfluorooctanesulfonate was present at levels similar to those in the U.S. population. Conclusions This largest known population study of community PFC exposure permits new evaluations of associations between PFOA, in particular, and a range of health parameters. These will contribute to understanding of the biology of PFC exposure. The C8 Health Project also represents an unprecedented effort to gather basic data on an exposed population; its achievements and limitations can inform future legal settlements for populations exposed to environmental contaminants.

Prevalence and Risk Factors for Refractive Errors in the Singapore Malay Eye Survey

PURPOSE To describe the prevalence and risk factors for myopia and other refractive errors in an urban Malay population in Singapore. DESIGN Population-based, cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS Persons of Malay ethnicity, between 40 and 80 years of age, living in Singapore. METHODS Refractive error was determined by subjective refraction and if unavailable by autorefraction. Data were analyzed for 2974 adults without previous cataract surgery and who had right eye refraction data. Risk factor data, such as education levels and near work activity, were obtained from a face-to-face interview. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Myopia, defined as spherical equivalent (SE) refraction less than -0.5 diopters (D), astigmatism as cylinder less than -0.5 D, hyperopia as SE greater than 0.5 D, and anisometropia as the difference in SE greater than 1.0 D. RESULTS The prevalence of myopia in the right eye was 30.7% (9.4% unilateral myopia and 21.3% bilateral myopia), the prevalence of astigmatism in the right eye was 33.3% (95% confidence interval [CI, 33.0-33.5), the prevalence of hyperopia in the right eye was 27.4% (95% CI, 24.7-27.6), and the prevalence of anisometropia was 9.9% (95% CI, 9.7-10.0). There was a U-shaped relationship between increasing age and the prevalence of myopia, which was partially explained by the age-related increase in the prevalence of cataract. In a multiple logistic regression model, female sex, age, higher educational level, and cataract were associated with myopia. Adults with myopia were more likely to have astigmatism (P<0.001) in multivariate analyses. CONCLUSIONS A quarter of older adult Malay people in Singapore had myopia. Compared with previous reports of similarly aged Singapore Chinese adults, the prevalence of myopia, astigmatism, and anisometropia was lower, whereas the prevalence of hyperopia was similar.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

Background The utility of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for cardiovascular prediction is controversial. Methods We meta-analyzed individual-level data from 24 cohorts (with a median follow-up time longer than 4 years, varying from 4.2 to 19.0 years) in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (637,315 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease) and assessed C-statistic difference and reclassification improvement for cardiovascular mortality and fatal and non-fatal cases of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure in 5-year timeframe, contrasting prediction models consisting of traditional risk factors with and without creatinine-based eGFR and/or albuminuria (either albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] or semi-quantitative dipstick proteinuria). Findings The addition of eGFR and ACR significantly improved the discrimination of cardiovascular outcomes beyond traditional risk factors in general populations, but the improvement was greater with ACR than with eGFR and more evident for cardiovascular mortality (c-statistic difference 0.0139 [95%CI 0.0105–0.0174] and 0.0065 [0.0042–0.0088], respectively) and heart failure (0.0196 [0.0108–0.0284] and 0.0109 [0.0059–0.0159]) than for coronary disease (0.0048 [0.0029–0.0067] and 0.0036 [0.0019–0.0054]) and stroke (0.0105 [0.0058–0.0151] and 0.0036 [0.0004–0.0069]). Dipstick proteinuria demonstrated smaller improvement than ACR. The discrimination improvement with kidney measures was especially evident in individuals with diabetes or hypertension but remained significant with ACR for cardiovascular mortality and heart failure in those without either of these conditions. In participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the combination of eGFR and ACR for risk discrimination outperformed most single traditional predictors; the c-statistic for cardiovascular mortality declined by 0.023 [0.016–0.030] vs. <0.007 when omitting eGFR and ACR vs. any single modifiable traditional predictors, respectively. Interpretation Creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria should be taken into account for cardiovascular prediction, especially when they are already assessed for clinical purpose and/or cardiovascular mortality and heart failure are the outcomes of interest (e.g., the European guidelines on cardiovascular prevention). ACR may have particularly broad implications for cardiovascular prediction. In CKD populations, the simultaneous assessment of eGFR and ACR will facilitate improved cardiovascular risk classification, supporting current CKD guidelines. Funding US National Kidney Foundation and NIDDKBACKGROUND The usefulness of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes is controversial. We aimed to assess the addition of creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria to traditional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular risk with a meta-analytic approach. METHODS We meta-analysed individual-level data for 637 315 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease from 24 cohorts (median follow-up 4·2-19·0 years) included in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium. We assessed C statistic difference and reclassification improvement for cardiovascular mortality and fatal and non-fatal cases of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure in a 5 year timeframe, contrasting prediction models for traditional risk factors with and without creatinine-based eGFR, albuminuria (either albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] or semi-quantitative dipstick proteinuria), or both. FINDINGS The addition of eGFR and ACR significantly improved the discrimination of cardiovascular outcomes beyond traditional risk factors in general populations, but the improvement was greater with ACR than with eGFR, and more evident for cardiovascular mortality (C statistic difference 0·0139 [95% CI 0·0105-0·0174] for ACR and 0·0065 [0·0042-0·0088] for eGFR) and heart failure (0·0196 [0·0108-0·0284] and 0·0109 [0·0059-0·0159]) than for coronary disease (0·0048 [0·0029-0·0067] and 0·0036 [0·0019-0·0054]) and stroke (0·0105 [0·0058-0·0151] and 0·0036 [0·0004-0·0069]). Dipstick proteinuria showed smaller improvement than ACR. The discrimination improvement with eGFR or ACR was especially evident in individuals with diabetes or hypertension, but remained significant with ACR for cardiovascular mortality and heart failure in those without either of these disorders. In individuals with chronic kidney disease, the combination of eGFR and ACR for risk discrimination outperformed most single traditional predictors; the C statistic for cardiovascular mortality fell by 0·0227 (0·0158-0·0296) after omission of eGFR and ACR compared with less than 0·007 for any single modifiable traditional predictor. INTERPRETATION Creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria should be taken into account for cardiovascular prediction, especially when these measures are already assessed for clinical purpose or if cardiovascular mortality and heart failure are outcomes of interest. ACR could have particularly broad implications for cardiovascular prediction. In populations with chronic kidney disease, the simultaneous assessment of eGFR and ACR could facilitate improved classification of cardiovascular risk, supporting current guidelines for chronic kidney disease. Our results lend some support to also incorporating eGFR and ACR into assessments of cardiovascular risk in the general population. FUNDING US National Kidney Foundation, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Relationship between urinary bisphenol A levels and diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND Bisphenol A (BPA) is a widely used chemical in the manufacture of polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins. Recent animal studies have suggested that BPA exposure may have a role in the development of weight gain, insulin resistance, pancreatic endocrine dysfunction, thyroid hormone disruption, and several other mechanisms involved in the development of diabetes. However, few human studies have examined the association between markers of BPA exposure and diabetes mellitus. METHODS We examined the association between urinary BPA levels and diabetes mellitus in the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003-2008. Urinary BPA levels were examined in quartiles. The main outcome of interest was diabetes mellitus defined according the latest American Diabetes Association guidelines. RESULTS Overall, we observed a positive association between increasing levels of urinary BPA and diabetes mellitus, independent of confounding factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and serum cholesterol levels. Compared to quartile 1 (referent), the multivariate-adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of diabetes associated with quartile 4 was 1.68 (1.22-2.30) (p-trend = 0.002). The association was present among normal-weight as well as overweight and obese subjects. CONCLUSIONS Urinary BPA levels are found to be associated with diabetes mellitus independent of traditional diabetes risk factors. Future prospective studies are needed to confirm or disprove this finding.

Sleep Duration and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Among Chinese Adults in Singapore: A Population-based Cohort Study

While some studies have found a positive association between both short and long sleep durations and cardiovascular disease (CVD), others have found an association only with a long or short sleep duration. In addition, there are limited data from non-Western populations on this topic. The authors examined the association between sleep duration and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality among Chinese adults in Singapore (1993-2006), performing a prospective cohort study among 58,044 participants aged > or =45 years (55.9% women) without preexisting CVD. The main outcome of interest was CHD mortality (n = 1,416). The authors found both short and long sleep durations to be positively associated with CHD mortality, independent of smoking, alcohol intake, and body mass index. Compared with persons with a sleep duration of 7 hours (referent), the multivariable relative risk of CHD mortality for a sleep duration of < or =5 hours was 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.32, 1.88); for a sleep duration of > or =9 hours, it was 1.79 (95% confidence interval: 1.48, 2.17). This association persisted in subgroup analyses by sex and body mass index. In a population-based cohort of Chinese adults from Singapore, sleep durations of < or =5 hours and > or =9 hours (versus 7 hours) were modestly associated with CHD mortality. These results suggest that sleep duration may be an important marker for CVD.