Anthony C. Grice

Cost-benefit analysis for intentional plant introductions under uncertainty

Worldwide, we rely on introduced plants for the essentials of human life; however, intentional plant introductions for commercial benefit have resulted in invaders with negative environmental, economic or social impacts. We argue that plant species of low expected economic value should be less acceptable for introduction than species of high economic value if their other traits are similar; however, key traits such as likelihood of escape and costs of escape are often highly uncertain. Methods do not currently exist which allow decision makers to evaluate costs and benefits of introduction under uncertainty. We developed a cost-benefit analysis for determining plant introduction that incorporates probability of escape, expected economic costs after escape, expected commercial benefits, and the efficiency and cost of containment. We used a model to obtain optimal decisions for the introduction and containment of commercial plants while maximizing net benefit or avoiding losses. We also obtained conditions for robust decisions which take into account severe uncertainty in model parameters using information-gap decision theory. Optimal decisions for introduction and containment of commercial plants depended, not only on the probability of escape and subsequent costs incurred, but also on the anticipated commercial benefit, and the cost and efficiency of containment. When our objective is to maximize net benefit, increasing uncertainty in parameter values increased the likelihood of introduction; in contrast, if our objective is to avoid losses, more uncertainty decreased the likelihood of introduction.

Regional and landscape-scale patterns of shrub invasion in tropical savannas

The shrubby vine Cryptostegia grandiflora and the shrub Ziziphus mauritiana were both introduced to northern Australia over 100 years ago and have become invasive in savanna woodland environments. Data from a land resource survey were used to examine regional- and landscape-scale distribution patterns of these species in the Dalrymple Shire, an area of over 6 1/2 million hectares in northeast Queensland. Each species was present at 10% of the 2362 sites examined and most frequent and abundant close to Charters Towers, the major settlement of the regions. C. grandiflora was recorded at 50 % of sites within 20 km of the town and in 14 out of 21 of the regions major sub-catchments. Z. mauritiana was recorded at 32 % of sites within 20km of Charters Towers, but in only three sub-catchments. Little of the variation in frequency and abundance of C. grandiflora and Z. mauritiana was accounted for by landscape factors, including geology, soils, or vegetation. While survey results do not absolutely distinguish between history, habitat and disturbance in explaining the weeds current distributions within the region, a strong influence of historical factors is suggested. Both exotic species were much less abundant than Carissa spp., a native taxon that has purportedly increased in the region in recent decades. In spite of their current prominence as weeds, there is potential for further increase by both C. grandiflora and Z. mauritiana. This increase could include expansion from the zone of high abundance and proliferation within that zone. While the results of such surveys must be interpreted with caution, they can yield useful information about regional patterns of plant invasion.

Tackling Contentious Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Buffel Grass in Australia

Introduced plants that have both production values and negative impacts can be contentious. Generally they are either treated as weeds and their use prohibited; or unfettered exploitation is permitted and land managers must individually contend with any negative effects. Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) is contentious in Australia and there has been no attempt to broadly and systematically address the issues surrounding it. However, recent research indicates that there is some mutual acceptance by proponents and opponents of each others’ perspectives and we contend that this provides the basis for a national approach. It would require thorough and on-going consultation with stakeholders and development of realistic goals that are applicable across a range of scales and responsive to regional differences in costs, benefits and socio-economic and biophysical circumstances. It would be necessary to clearly allocate responsibilities and ascertain the most appropriate balance between legislative and non-legislative mechanisms. A national approach could involve avoiding the introduction of additional genetic material, countering proliferation in regions where the species is sparse, preventing incursion into conservation reserves where it is absent, containing strategically located populations and managing communities to prevent or reduce dominance by buffel grass. This approach could be applied to other contentious plant species.

Comparing agglomerative clustering and three weed classification frameworks to assess the invasiveness of alien species across spatial scales.

ABSTRACT To prioritize weed management at the catchment scale, information is required on the species present, their relatively frequency, abundance, and likely spread and impact. The objective of this study was to classify the invasiveness of alien species that have invaded the Upper Burdekin Catchment in Queensland, Australia, at three spatial scales. A combination of three published weed classification frameworks and multivariate techniques were employed to classify species based on their frequency and cover at a range of spatial scales. We surveyed the Upper Burdekin Catchment for alien species, and for each species determined the following distribution indices — site frequency, total cover, transect frequency per site frequency and quadrat frequency per site frequency, cover per quadrat when present, cover per transect when present, and cover per site when present. These indices capture the effect of species abundance and frequency between sites (site frequency and total cover), within sites (transect frequency per site and cover per transect when present), and within transects (quadrat frequency per site frequency and cover per site). They were used to classify the species into seven groups using a hierarchical cluster analysis. The relationship between the indices was explored to determine how effective the small scale, site‐specific indices were at predicting the broader, landscape‐scale patterns. Strong correlations were observed between transect frequency per site and frequency (r 2 = 0.89) and cover per transect when present and total cover (r 2 = 0.62). This suggests that if a weed is abundant at the site level, it has the potential to occupy large areas of the catchment. The species groupings derived from the application of the three published weed classification frameworks were compared graphically to the groupings derived from the cluster analysis. One of the frameworks classified species into three groups. The other two frameworks classified species into four groups. There was a high degree of subjectivity in applying the frameworks to the survey data. Some of the data were of no relevance to the classification frameworks and were therefore ignored. We suggest that the weed classification frameworks should be used in conjunction with existing multivariate techniques to ensure that classifications capture important natural variations in observed data that may reflect invasion processes. The combined use of the frameworks and multivariate techniques enabled us to aggregate species into categories appropriate for management.

Managing breaches of containment and eradication of invasive plant populations.

Containment can be a viable strategy for managing invasive plants, but it is not always cheaper than eradication. In many cases, converting a failed eradication programme to a containment programme is not economically justified. Despite this, many contemporary invasive plant management strategies invoke containment as a fallback for failed eradication, often without detailing how containment would be implemented. We demonstrate a generalized analysis of the costs of eradication and containment, applicable to any plant invasion for which infestation size, dispersal distance, seed bank lifetime and the economic discount rate are specified. We estimate the costs of adapting eradication and containment in response to six types of breach and calculate under what conditions containment may provide a valid fallback to a breached eradication programme. We provide simple, general formulae and plots that can be applied to any invasion and show that containment will be cheaper than eradication only when the size of the occupied zone exceeds a multiple of the dispersal distance determined by seed bank longevity and the discount rate. Containment becomes proportionally cheaper than eradication for invaders with smaller dispersal distances, longer lived seed banks, or for larger discount rates. Both containment and eradication programmes are at risk of breach. Containment is less exposed to risk from reproduction in the ‘occupied zone’ and three types of breach that lead to a larger ‘occupied zone’, but more exposed to one type of breach that leads to a larger ‘buffer zone’. For a well-specified eradication programme, only the three types of breach leading to reproduction in or just outside the buffer zone can justify falling back to containment, and only if the expected costs of eradication and containment were comparable before the breach. Synthesis and applications. Weed management plans must apply a consistent definition of containment and provide sufficient implementation detail to assess its feasibility. If the infestation extent, dispersal capacity, seed bank longevity and economic discount rate are specified, the general results presented here can be used to assess whether containment can outperform eradication, and under what conditions it would provide a valid fallback to a breached eradication programme.

Movement Patterns, Home Range Size and Habitat Selection of an Endangered Resource Tracking Species, the Black-Throated Finch (Poephila cincta cincta)

Understanding movement patterns and home range of species is paramount in ecology; it is particularly important for threatened taxa as it can provide valuable information for conservation management. To address this knowledge gap for a range-restricted endangered bird, we estimated home range size, daily movement patterns and habitat use of a granivorous subspecies in northeast Australia, the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta; BTF) using radio-tracking and re-sighting of colour banded birds. Little is known about basic aspects of its ecology including movement patterns and home range sizes. From 2011–2014 we colour-banded 102 BTF and radio-tracked 15 birds. We generated home ranges (calculated using kernel and Minimum Convex Polygons techniques of the 15 tracked BTF). More than 50% of the re-sightings occurred within 200 m of the banding site (n = 51 out of 93 events) and within 100 days of capture. Mean home-range estimates with kernel (50%, 95% probability) and Minimum Convex Polygons were 10.59 ha, 50.79 ha and 46.27 ha, respectively. Home range size differed between two capture sites but no seasonal differences were observed. BTF home ranges overlapped four habitat types among eight available. Habitat selection was different from random at Site 1 (χ2 = 373.41, df = 42, p<0.001) and Site 2 (χ2 = 1896.1, df = 45, p<0.001); however, the preferred habitats differed between the two sites. BTF moved further than expected on the basis of current knowledge, with three individuals being resighted over 15 km from the banding location. However, BTF maintain small home ranges over short time-frames. Occasional long-distance movements may be related to resource bottleneck periods. Daily movement patterns differed between sites, which is likely linked to the fact that the sites differ in the spatial distribution of resources. The work provides information about home range sizes and local movement of BTF that will be valuable for targeting effective management and conservation strategies for this endangered granivore.

Genetic structure and diversity of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta) across its current range

Abstract. Understanding the patterns of population connectivity and level of genetic diversity can facilitate the identification of both ecologically relevant populations and the spatial scales at which conservation management may need to focus. We quantified genetic variation within and among populations of black-throated finches across their current distribution. To quantify genetic structure and diversity, we genotyped 242 individuals from four populations using 14 polymorphic microsatellite markers and sequenced 25 individuals based on a 302-base-pair segment of mitochondrial control region. We found modest levels of genetic diversity (average allelic richness r = 4.37 ± 0.41 (standard error) and average heterozygosity HO = 0.42 ± 0.040 (standard error)) with no bottleneck signature among sampled populations. We identified two genetic groups that represent populations of two subspecies based on Bayesian clustering analysis and low levels of genetic differentiation based on pairwise genetic differentiation statistics (all FST, RST and Nei’s unbiased D values < 0.1). Our data suggest that genetic exchange occurs among sampled populations despite recent population declines. Conservation efforts that focus on maintaining habitat connectivity and increasing habitat quality to ensure a high level of gene flow on a larger scale will improve the species’ ability to persist in changing landscapes. Conservation management should also support continuous monitoring of the bird to identify any rapid population declines as land-use intensification occurs throughout the species’ range.