Antoine Rabatel

Using remote-sensing data to determine equilibrium-line altitude and mass-balance time series: validation on three French glaciers, 1994–2002

Alpine glaciers are very sensitive to climate fluctuations, and their mass balance can be used as an indicator of regional-scale climate change. Here, we present a method to calculate glacier mass balance using remote-sensing data. Snowline measurements from remotely sensed images recorded at the end of the hydrological year provide an effective proxy of the equilibrium line. Mass balance can be deduced from the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) variations. Three well-documented glaciers in the French Alps, where the mass balance is measured at ground level with a stake network, were selected to assess the accuracy of the method over the 1994–2002 period (eight mass-balance cycles). Results obtained by ground measurements and remote sensing are compared and show excellent correlation ( r 2 > 0.89), both for the ELA and for the mass balance, indicating that the remote-sensing method can be applied to glaciers where no ground data exist, on the scale of a mountain range or a given climatic area. The main differences can be attributed to discrepancies between the dates of image acquisition and field measurements. Cloud cover and recent snowfalls constitute the main restrictions of the image-based method.

25 years (1981-2005) of equilibrium-line altitude and mass-balance reconstruction on Glacier Blanc, French Alps, using remote-sensing methods and meteorological data

Annual equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and surface mass balance of Glacier Blanc, Ecrins region, French Alps, were reconstructed from a 25 year time series of satellite images (1981–2005). The remote-sensing method used was based on identification of the snowline, which is easy to discern on optical satellite images taken at the end of the ablation season. In addition, surface mass balances at the ELA were reconstructed for the same period using meteorological data from three nearby weather stations. A comparison of the two types of series reveals a correlation of r > 0.67 at the 0.01 level of significance. Furthermore, the surface mass balances obtained from remote-sensing data are consistent with those obtained from field measurements on five other French glaciers (r ¼ ¼ 0.76, p < 0.01). Also consistent for Glacier Blanc is the total mass loss (10.8mw.e.) over the studied period. However, the surface mass balances obtained with the remote-sensing method show lower interannual variability. Given that the remote-sensing method is based on changes in the ELA, this difference probably results from the lower sensitivity of the surface mass balance to climate parameters at the ELA.

Contribution of glacier runoff to water resources of La Paz city, Bolivia (16 degrees S)

Abstract The supply of glacier water to La Paz city, Bolivia, between 1963 and 2006 was assessed at annual and seasonal timescales based on the mass-balance quantification of 70 glaciers located within the drainage basins of La Paz. Glaciers contributed ∼15% of water resources at an annual scale (14% in the wet season, 27% in the dry season). Uncertainties in our estimation are related to the assumed constant precipitation (∼0.5% for ice-free areas and up to 6.5% for glaciated areas), the constant runoff coefficient (∼1%), the surface areas of the glaciers and catchments (∼5%) and the mean mass-balance uncertainty of the 21 glaciers used to obtain the mass balance of the 70 glaciers (12% of the total discharge). Despite the loss of 50% of the glacierized area during the study period, runoff at La Paz did not change significantly, showing that increase in ice melt rates compensated for reduction in the surface area of the glaciers. In the future, assuming complete disappearance of the glaciers and no change in precipitation, runoff should diminish by ∼12% at an annual scale, 9% during the wet season and 24% during the dry season.

Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies

ABSTRACT To date glacial and periglacial landforms, lichenometry is a valuable method but, to improve efficiency, the estimated surface dates derived from traditional methods need to be more accurate. In other words, the statistical uncertainty associated with inferred dates has to be reduced. How to perform such a reduction is the main question that we will address in this paper. An interdisciplinary approach (lichenometry and statistics) allows reduction in the main sources of uncertainty: lichen diameters and their associated ages. Around 2600 lichen measurements collected on moraines from the Charquini glacier in Bolivia (Cordillera Real) are used to illustrate the advantages of our approach over past studies. As for any statistical estimation procedure, the error analysis in lichenometry is directly linked to the type of observations and the statistical model used to represent accurately these data. The attribute of lichenometry studies is that the measurements are not averages but maxima; only the largest lichen diameters provide information about the surface ages. To take this characteristic into account, we propose a novel statistical way to model maximum lichen diameters. Our model, based on the extreme value theory, allows us to compute small confidence intervals for the inferred surface ages. In addition, it offers three other advantages: (1) a global statistical model, as all our data (dated surfaces and all lichen maximum diameters) are represented with a unique function; (2) a mathematical framework within which the maximum lichen distribution is derived from a statistical theory; and (3) flexibility, as different types of growing curves can be investigated.

Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16° S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections

Abstract Bolivian glaciers are an essential source of fresh water for the Altiplano, and any changes they may undergo in the near future due to ongoing climate change are of particular concern. Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia, located near the administrative capital La Paz, has been extensively monitored by the GLACIOCLIM observatory in the last two decades. Here we model the glacier dynamics using the 3-D full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice. The model was calibrated and validated over a recent period (1997–2010) using four independent datasets: available observations of surface velocities and surface mass balance were used for calibration, and changes in surface elevation and retreat of the glacier front were used for validation. Over the validation period, model outputs are in good agreement with observations (differences less than a small percentage). The future surface mass balance is assumed to depend on the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and temperature changes through the sensitivity of ELA to temperature. The model was then forced for the 21st century using temperature changes projected by nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here we give results for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The intermediate scenario RCP6.0 led to 69 ± 7% volume loss by 2100, while the two extreme scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, led to 40 ± 7% and 89 ± 4% loss of volume, respectively.

Ecosystem sentinels for climate change? Evidence of wetland cover changes over the last 30 years in the tropical Andes

While the impacts of climate change on individual species and communities have been well documented there is little evidence on climate-mediated changes for entire ecosystems. Pristine alpine environments can provide unique insights into natural, physical and ecological response to climate change yet broad scale and long-term studies on these potential ‘ecosystem sentinels’ are scarce. We addressed this issue by examining cover changes of 1689 high-elevation wetlands (temporarily or perennial water-saturated grounds) in the Bolivian Cordillera Real, a region that has experienced significant warming and glacier melting over the last 30 years. We combined high spatial resolution satellite images from PLEIADES with the long-term images archive from LANDSAT to 1) examine environmental factors (e.g., glacier cover, wetland and watershed size) that affected wetland cover changes, and 2) identify wetlands’ features that affect their vulnerability (using habitat drying as a proxy) in the face of climate change. Over the (1984–2011) period, our data showed an increasing trend in the mean wetland total area and number, mainly related to the appearance of wet grassland patches during the wetter years. Wetland cover also showed high inter-annual variability and their area for a given year was positively correlated to precipitation intensities in the three months prior to the image date. Also, round wetlands located in highly glacierized catchments were less prone to drying, while relatively small wetlands with irregularly shaped contours suffered the highest rates of drying over the last three decades. High Andean wetlands can therefore be considered as ecosystem sentinels for climate change, as they seem sensitive to glacier melting. Beyond the specific focus of this study, our work illustrates how satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem sentinels can help filling the lack of information on the ecological consequences of current and changing climate conditions, a common and crucial issue especially in less-developed countries.

Glacier mass balance determination by remote sensing in the French Alps: progress and limitation for time series monitoring

This paper presents an approach founded on an indirect methodology to determine the distribution of mass balance at high spatial resolution using remote sensing and ground stakes measurements. A recent time series of images from optical and SAR data are selected on 3 outlet glaciers well suited in the French Alps to evaluate the accuracy of the computed mass balance. The method is based on the snowline determination as a proxy of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The key of the transfer is the activity coefficient (db/dz) for the annual mass balance calculation. Comparison between measured and computed mass balance provide a good correspondence (R/sup 2/=0.90) and allows extending the method on large-scale areas. The limitations are cloudiness for optical data and high slope distortion on SAR images.

A Response to Bradwell's Commentary on Recent Statistical Studies in Lichenometry

In his commentary ‘Lichenometric Dating: A Commentary, in the Light of some Recent Statistical Studies’, Bradwell (2009) attacks the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach (Cooley et al. 2006; Jomelli et al. 2007; Naveau et al. 2007) recently employed in several lichenometric studies (Jomelli et al. 2008; Rabatel et al. 2008; Chenet et al. 2009). Bradwell judged the GEV approach as too unconventional for geomorphologists, overly complex, and incapable of bringing any added value to the field of lichenometry. Furthermore, the article raises a more general philosophical question: ‘Can statistical complexity and high precision in a “geobotanical” dating technique, fraught with high degrees of environmental variability and inbuilt uncertainty, ever be scientifically valid?’ We disagree with Bradwell’s assessment. Furthermore, we think that Bradwell does not fully recognize the assumptions made in the traditional lichenometric analyses that he recommends.

Toward an imminent extinction of Colombian glaciers

ABSTRACT This study documents the current state of glacier coverage in the Colombian Andes, the glacier shrinkage over the twentieth century and discusses indication of their disappearance in the coming decades. Satellite images have been used to update the glacier inventory of Colombia reflecting an overall glacier extent of about 42.4 ± 0.71 km2 in 2016 distributed in four glacierized mountain ranges. Combining these data with older inventories, we show that the current extent is 36% less than in the mid-1990s, 62% less than in the mid-twentieth century and almost 90% less than the Little Ice Age maximum extent. Focusing on Nevado Santa Isabel (Los Nevados National Park), aerial photographs from 1987 and 2005 combined with a terrestrial LiDAR survey show that the mass loss of the former ice cap, which is nowadays parceled into several small glaciers, was about −2.5 m w.e. yr−1 during the last three decades. Radar measurements performed on one of the remnant glaciers, La Conejeras glacier, show that the ice thickness is limited (about 22 m in average in 2014) and that with such a mass loss rate, the glacier should disappear in the coming years. Considering their imbalance with the current climate conditions, their limited altitudinal extent and reduced accumulation areas, and in view of temperature increase expected in future climate scenarios, most of the Colombian glaciers will likely disappear in the coming decades. Only the largest ones located on the highest summits will probably persist until the second half of the twenty-first century although very reduced.

Ten years of monthly mass balance of Conejeras glacier, Colombia, and their evaluation using different interpolation methods

ABSTRACT Understanding global climate change and its impacts on glaciers in the inner tropics is challenged by an absent climate seasonality that requires glacier monitoring at increased frequencies. Conejeras glacier in Colombia has been monitored monthly for 10 years, contributing to the limited knowledge of glacier mass development in this region. We acquired a terrestrial Lidar digital elevation model (DEM) and performed a full homogenization of the time series. Applying a number of interpolation methods, we calculated glacier-wide balances and deduced respective uncertainties. All interpolation methods revealed comparable variations in monthly surface mass balance, but the profile method failed in certain cases. We recommend using the Index-site method for monthly and annual and the Contour-line method for annual surface mass balances. Even when strongly reducing the stake network, the Index-site method and geostatistical interpolations (Kriging and Topo to Raster) showed robust and reliable results. Conejeras glacier is strongly down-wasting with a mass loss of 29 400 mm w.e. and an area shrinkage of 20% within 10 years. Surface mass balance variations were strongest from November to February and depend largely on the intensity of El Niño Southern Oscillation. With a repeat DEM in the near future the glaciological time series could be validated with the geodetic mass balance. We recommend continuing the monthly monitoring programme, but complementing it with an energy balance study using additional meteorological data to better explain the glacier–climate interactions. However, to track the glacier’s mass variations, a monitoring network with lower measurement frequency and stake density would be sufficient.