Antonella d'Arminio Monforte

Life expectancy of individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in high-income countries: a collaborative analysis of 14 cohort studies

BACKGROUNDnCombination antiretroviral therapy has led to significant increases in survival and quality of life, but at a population-level the effect on life expectancy is not well understood. Our objective was to compare changes in mortality and life expectancy among HIV-positive individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy.nnnMETHODSnThe Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration is a multinational collaboration of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America. Patients were included in this analysis if they were aged 16 years or over and antiretroviral-naive when initiating combination therapy. We constructed abridged life tables to estimate life expectancies for individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996-99, 2000-02, and 2003-05, and stratified by sex, baseline CD4 cell count, and history of injecting drug use. The average number of years remaining to be lived by those treated with combination antiretroviral therapy at 20 and 35 years of age was estimated. Potential years of life lost from 20 to 64 years of age and crude mortality rates were also calculated.nnnFINDINGSn18 587, 13 914, and 10 854 eligible patients initiated combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996-99, 2000-02, and 2003-05, respectively. 2056 (4.7%) deaths were observed during the study period, with crude mortality rates decreasing from 16.3 deaths per 1000 person-years in 1996-99 to 10.0 deaths per 1000 person-years in 2003-05. Potential years of life lost per 1000 person-years also decreased over the same time, from 366 to 189 years. Life expectancy at age 20 years increased from 36.1 (SE 0.6) years to 49.4 (0.5) years. Women had higher life expectancies than did men. Patients with presumed transmission via injecting drug use had lower life expectancies than did those from other transmission groups (32.6 [1.1] years vs 44.7 [0.3] years in 2003-05). Life expectancy was lower in patients with lower baseline CD4 cell counts than in those with higher baseline counts (32.4 [1.1] years for CD4 cell counts below 100 cells per muL vs 50.4 [0.4] years for counts of 200 cells per muL or more).nnnINTERPRETATIONnLife expectancy in HIV-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy increased between 1996 and 2005, although there is considerable variability between subgroups of patients. The average number of years remaining to be lived at age 20 years was about two-thirds of that in the general population in these countries.

Survival of HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy between 1996 and 2013: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies

Summary Background Health care for people living with HIV has improved substantially in the past two decades. Robust estimates of how these improvements have affected prognosis and life expectancy are of utmost importance to patients, clinicians, and health-care planners. We examined changes in 3 year survival and life expectancy of patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1996 and 2013. Methods We analysed data from 18 European and North American HIV-1 cohorts. Patients (aged ≥16 years) were eligible for this analysis if they had started ART with three or more drugs between 1996 and 2010 and had at least 3 years of potential follow-up. We estimated adjusted (for age, sex, AIDS, risk group, CD4 cell count, and HIV-1 RNA at start of ART) all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for the first year after ART initiation and the second and third years after ART initiation in four calendar periods (1996–99, 2000–03 [comparator], 2004–07, 2008–10). We estimated life expectancy by calendar period of initiation of ART. Findings 88u2008504 patients were included in our analyses, of whom 2106 died during the first year of ART and 2302 died during the second or third year of ART. Patients starting ART in 2008–10 had lower all-cause mortality in the first year after ART initiation than did patients starting ART in 2000–03 (adjusted HR 0·71, 95% CI 0·61–0·83). All-cause mortality in the second and third years after initiation of ART was also lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 than in those who started in 2000–03 (0·57, 0·49–0·67); this decrease was not fully explained by viral load and CD4 cell count at 1 year. Rates of non-AIDS deaths were lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 (vs 2000–03) in the first year (0·48, 0·34–0·67) and second and third years (0·29, 0·21–0·40) after initiation of ART. Between 1996 and 2010, life expectancy in 20-year-old patients starting ART increased by about 9 years in women and 10 years in men. Interpretation Even in the late ART era, survival during the first 3 years of ART continues to improve, which probably reflects transition to less toxic antiretroviral drugs, improved adherence, prophylactic measures, and management of comorbidity. Prognostic models and life expectancy estimates should be updated to account for these improvements. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, EU EDCTP2 programme.

Prognosis of patients treated with cART from 36 months after initiation, according to current and previous CD4 cell count and plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements

Objectives:CD4 cell count and plasma viral load are well known predictors of AIDS and mortality in HIV-1-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study investigated, in patients treated for at least 3 years, the respective prognostic importance of values measured at cART initiation, and 6 and 36 months later, for AIDS and death. Methods:Patients from 15 HIV cohorts included in the ART Cohort Collaboration, aged at least 16 years, antiretroviral-naive when they started cART and followed for at least 36 months after start of cART were eligible. Results:Among 14 208 patients, the median CD4 cell counts at 0, 6 and 36 months were 210, 320 and 450 cells/μl, respectively, and 78% of patients achieved viral load less than 500 copies/ml at 6 months. In models adjusted for characteristics at cART initiation and for values at all time points, values at 36 months were the strongest predictors of subsequent rates of AIDS and death. Although CD4 cell count and viral load at cART initiation were no longer prognostic of AIDS or of death after 36 months, viral load at 6 months and change in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months were prognostic for rates of AIDS from 36 months. Conclusions:Although current values of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA are the most important prognostic factors for subsequent AIDS and death rates in HIV-1-infected patients treated with cART, changes in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months and the value of 6-month HIV-1 RNA are also prognostic for AIDS.

Cause-Specific Mortality in HIV-Positive Patients Who Survived Ten Years after Starting Antiretroviral Therapy

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and prognostic factors in HIV-positive patients who started combination antiretroviral therapy between 1996–1999 and survived for more than ten years. Methods We used data from 18 European and North American HIV cohort studies contributing to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We followed up patients from ten years after start of combination antiretroviral therapy. We estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rate ratios for age, sex, transmission through injection drug use, AIDS, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA. Results During 50,593 person years 656/13,011 (5%) patients died. Older age, male sex, injecting drug use transmission, AIDS, and low CD4 count and detectable viral replication ten years after starting combination antiretroviral therapy were associated with higher subsequent mortality. CD4 count at ART start did not predict mortality in models adjusted for patient characteristics ten years after start of antiretroviral therapy. The most frequent causes of death (among 340 classified) were non-AIDS cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular, and liver-related disease. Older age was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality, injecting drug use transmission with non-AIDS infection and liver-related mortality, and low CD4 and detectable viral replication ten years after starting antiretroviral therapy with AIDS mortality. Five-year mortality risk was <5% in 60% of all patients, and in 30% of those aged over 60 years. Conclusions Viral replication, lower CD4 count, prior AIDS, and transmission via injecting drug use continue to predict higher all-cause and AIDS-related mortality in patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy for over a decade. Deaths from AIDS and non-AIDS infection are less frequent than deaths from other non-AIDS causes.

Injection Drug Use and Hepatitis C as Risk Factors for Mortality in HIV-Infected Individuals: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration

Background:HIV-infected individuals with a history of transmission through injection drug use (IDU) have poorer survival than other risk groups. The extent to which higher rates of hepatitis C (HCV) infection in IDU explain survival differences is unclear. Methods:Adults who started antiretroviral therapy between 2000 and 2009 in 16 European and North American cohorts with >70% complete data on HCV status were followed for 3 years. We estimated unadjusted and adjusted (for age, sex, baseline CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA, AIDS diagnosis before antiretroviral therapy, and stratified by cohort) mortality hazard ratios for IDU (versus non-IDU) and for HCV-infected (versus HCV uninfected). Results:Of 32,703 patients, 3374 (10%) were IDU; 4630 (14%) were HCV+; 1116 (3.4%) died. Mortality was higher in IDU compared with non-IDU [adjusted HR 2.71; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.32 to 3.16] and in HCV+ compared with HCV− (adjusted HR 2.65; 95% CI: 2.31 to 3.04). The effect of IDU was substantially attenuated (adjusted HR 1.57; 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.94) after adjustment for HCV, while attenuation of the effect of HCV was less substantial (adjusted HR 2.04; 95% CI: 1.68 to 2.47) after adjustment for IDU. Both IDU and HCV were strongly associated with liver-related mortality (adjusted HR 10.89; 95% CI: 6.47 to 18.3 for IDU and adjusted HR 14.0; 95% CI: 8.05 to 24.5 for HCV) with greater attenuation of the effect of IDU (adjusted HR 2.43; 95% CI: 1.24 to 4.78) than for HCV (adjusted HR 7.97; 95% CI: 3.83 to 16.6). Rates of CNS, respiratory and violent deaths remained elevated in IDU after adjustment for HCV. Conclusions:A substantial proportion of the excess mortality in HIV-infected IDU is explained by HCV coinfection. These findings underscore the potential impact on mortality of new treatments for HCV in HIV-infected people.

CD4:CD8 Ratio and CD8 Count as Prognostic Markers for Mortality in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC)

Summary Associations of CD4:CD8 ratio or CD8 count with all-cause and cause-specific mortality were too small for them to be useful as independent prognostic markers in addition to CD4 count in virally suppressed patients on antiretroviral therapy with high CD4 count.