Antonella Delmestri

Long-term effects of continuing adjuvant tamoxifen to 10 years versus stopping at 5 years after diagnosis of oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: ATLAS, a randomised trial

Summary Background For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years. Methods In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12 894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633. Findings Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12 894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%). Interpretation For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.

Anti-Osteoporosis medication prescriptions and incidence of subsequent fracture among primary hip fracture patients in England and Wales: an interrupted time-series analysis

In January 2005, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England and Wales provided new guidance on the use of antiosteoporosis therapies for the secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures. This was shortly followed in the same year by market authorization of a generic form of alendronic acid within the UK. We here set out to estimate the actual practice impact of these events among hip fracture patients in terms of antiosteoporosis medication prescribing and subsequent fracture incidence using primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) from 1999 to 2013. Changes in level and trend of prescribing and subsequent fracture following publication of NICE guidance and availability of generic alendronic acid were estimated using an interrupted time series analysis. Both events were considered in combination within a 1‐year “intervention period.” We identified 10,873 primary hip fracture patients between April 1999 and Sept 2012. Taking into account prior trend, the intervention period was associated with an immediate absolute increase of 14.9% (95% CI, 10.9 to 18.9) for incident antiosteoporosis prescriptions and a significant and clinically important reduction in subsequent major and subsequent hip fracture: –0.19% (95% CI, –0.28 to –0.09) and –0.17% (95% CI, –0.26 to –0.09) per 6 months, respectively. This equated to an approximate 14% (major) and 22% (hip) reduction at 3 years postintervention relative to expected values based solely on preintervention level and trend. We conclude that among hip fracture patients, publication of NICE guidance and availability of generic alendronic acid was temporally associated with increased prescribing and a significant decline in subsequent fractures.

Cost-effectiveness of orthogeriatric and fracture liaison service models of care for hip fracture patients: a population based study

Fracture liaison services are recommended as a model of best practice for organizing patient care and secondary fracture prevention for hip fracture patients, although variation exists in how such services are structured. There is considerable uncertainty as to which model is most cost‐effective and should therefore be mandated. This study evaluated the cost‐ effectiveness of orthogeriatric (OG)‐ and nurse‐led fracture liaison service (FLS) models of post‐hip fracture care compared with usual care. Analyses were conducted from a health care and personal social services payer perspective, using a Markov model to estimate the lifetime impact of the models of care. The base‐case population consisted of men and women aged 83 years with a hip fracture. The risk and costs of hip and non‐hip fractures were derived from large primary and hospital care data sets in the UK. Utilities were informed by a meta‐regression of 32 studies. In the base‐case analysis, the orthogeriatric‐led service was the most effective and cost‐effective model of care at a threshold of £30,000 per quality‐adjusted life years gained (QALY). For women aged 83 years, the OG‐led service was the most cost‐effective at £22,709/QALY. If only health care costs are considered, OG‐led service was cost‐effective at £12,860/QALY and £14,525/QALY for women and men aged 83 years, respectively. Irrespective of how patients were stratified in terms of their age, sex, and Charlson comorbidity score at index hip fracture, our results suggest that introducing an orthogeriatrician‐led or a nurse‐led FLS is cost‐effective when compared with usual care. Although considerable uncertainty remains concerning which of the models of care should be preferred, introducing an orthogeriatrician‐led service seems to be the most cost‐effective service to pursue.

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death

Summary Background After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10 801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease. Findings Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7–17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6–6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2–17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8–5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (≥20%), intermediate (10–19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1–12·5), 1·1% (–2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (–7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5–27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8–15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease. Interpretation After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made. Funding Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.Breast-conserving surgery can excise all detected macroscopic tumor tissue in women with early-stage breast cancer. However, the presence of microscopic tumor foci in the conserved breast of these women, if untreated, may lead to locoregional recurrence and/or life-threatening distant recurrence. Radiotherapy in the conserved breast after surgery may reduce rates of recurrence and breast cancer death more among some groups of women than in others. This meta-analysis assessed the extent to which the absolute reduction by radiotherapy in 10-year risk of first recurrence differs among women with different prognostic and other characteristics and relates the absolute reduction in the 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in the 10-year recurrence risk. 92 Obstetrical and Gynecological Survey

Health amongst former rugby union players: A cross-sectional study of morbidity and health-related quality of life.

In the general population, physical activity is associated with improved health outcomes. However, long-term sports participation may be associated with adverse outcomes, particularly at the elite level. The aims of this study were to assess morbidity and health-related quality of life (HrQoL) amongst former rugby players, compared to an age-standardised general population sample. A cross-sectional study of former elite, male, rugby players (n = 259) was undertaken, and standardised morbidity ratios (SMR) calculated, assessing morbidity prevalence relative to English Longitudinal Study of Aging participants (ELSA, n = 5186). HrQoL, measured using the EQ-5D, was compared to a Health Survey for England (HSE, n = 2981) sample. In SMR analyses of participants aged 50+, diabetes was significantly lower amongst former players, (0.28, 95% CI 0.11–0.66), whereas osteoarthritis (4.00, 95% CI 3.32–4.81), joint replacement (6.02, 95% CI 4.66–7.77), osteoporosis (2.69, 95% CI 1.35–5.38), and anxiety (2.00, 95% CI 1.11–3.61) were significantly higher. More problems in HrQoL were reported amongst former players within the domains of mobility (p < 0.001), self-care (p = 0.041), usual activities (p < 0.001) and pain/discomfort (p < 0.001). Morbidity and HrQoL differ between players and the general population, with higher musculoskeletal morbidity and lower diabetes amongst former players. The magnitude of musculoskeletal morbidity may warrant proactive osteoarthritis management within this population.

Association between NICE guidance on biologic therapies with rates of hip and knee replacement among rheumatoid arthritis patients in England and Wales: An interrupted time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE To estimate the impact of NICE approval of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapies on the incidence of total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in England and Wales. METHODS Primary care data [Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)] for the study period (1995-2014) were used to identify incident adult RA patients. The age and sex-standardised 5-year incidence of THR and TKR was calculated separately for RA patients diagnosed in each six-months between 1995-2009. We took a natural experimental approach, using segmented linear regression to estimate changes in level and trend following the publication of NICE TA 36 in March 2002, incorporating a 1-year lag. Regression coefficients were used to calculate average change in rates, adjusted for prior level and trend. RESULTS We identified 17,505 incident RA patients of whom 465 and 650 underwent THR and TKR surgery, respectively. The modeled average incidence of THR and TKR over the biologic-era was 6.57/1000 person years (PYs) and 8.51/1000 PYs, respectively, with projected (had pre-NICE TA 36 level and trend continued uninterrupted) figures of 5.63/1000 PYs and 12.92 PYs, respectively. NICE guidance was associated with a significant average decrease in TKR incidence of -4.41/1000 PYs (95% C.I. -6.88 to -1.94), equating to a relative 34% reduction. Overall, no effect was seen on THR rates. CONCLUSIONS Among incident RA patients in England and Wales, NICE guidance on TNFi therapies for RA management was temporally associated with reduced rates of TKR but not THR.

Osteoarthritis and other long-term health conditions in former elite cricketers.

Objectives This study aimed to describe the prevalence and risk of chronic conditions in former elite cricketers compared to a normal population, and describe wellbeing in former elite cricketers. Design Cross-sectional study. Methods Former elite cricketers, recruited from the Professional Cricketers’ Association, completed a self-report cross-sectional questionnaire. The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) served as the normal population. The prevalence of self-reported, GP-diagnosed conditions (heart problems, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, asthma, dementia, osteoarthritis (OA), total hip replacement (THR), total knee replacement (TKR), anxiety, depression) were reported for both population samples. Standardised morbidity ratios (SMRs) compared chronic conditions in sex-, age- and BMI-matched former cricketers (n = 113) and normal population (n = 4496). Results Heart problems were reported by 13.3% of former cricketers, significantly lower than the normal population, SMR 0.55 (0.33–0.91). Former cricketers reported 31.9% hypertension, 1.8% stroke, 6.2% diabetes, 15.0% asthma, and no dementia, none significantly different to the normal population. OA, THR, and TKR were reported by 51.3%, 14.7% and 10.7% of former cricketers, respectively, significantly higher than the normal population, SMRs 3.64 (2.81–4.71), 3.99 (2.21–7.20) and 3.84 (1.92–7.68). Anxiety and depression were reported by 12.4% and 8.8% of former cricketers, respectively, SMRs 3.95 (2.34–6.67) and 2.22 (1.20–4.14). 97% of former cricketers reflected they would undertake their cricket career again, 98% agreed that cricket enriched their lives. Conclusions Heart problems were significantly lower, while OA, THR, TKR, anxiety, and depression were significantly higher in the former cricketers compared to the normal population (ELSA). Most former cricketers reflected positively on their career.

Oral bisphosphonate use and age-related macular degeneration: retrospective cohort and nested case-control study

Our objective here was to determine whether oral bisphosphonate (BP) use is associated with the incidence of age‐related macular degeneration (AMD). We performed a population‐based study using electronic health records from UK primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). A cohort of 13,974 hip fracture patients (1999–2013) was used to conduct (1) a propensity score–matched cohort analysis and (2) a nested case–control analysis. Hip fracture patients were aged ≥50 years without AMD diagnosis before hip fracture date or in the first year of follow‐up. Among 6208 matched patients and during 22,142 person‐years of follow‐up, 57 (1.8%) and 42 (1.4%) AMD cases occurred in BP users and non‐BP users, respectively. The survival analysis model did not provide significant evidence of a higher risk of AMD in BP users (subhazard ratio: 1.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95–2.72; P = 0.08), although there was a significant increased risk among BP users with high medication possession ratio (MPR) (top quartile) relative to non‐BP users (odds ratio: 5.08, 95% CI: 3.11–8.30; P < 0.001, respectively). Overall, oral BP use was not associated with an increased risk of AMD in this cohort of hip fracture patients, although the risk increased significantly with higher MPR. More data are needed to confirm these findings.

Incidence of shoulder dislocations in the UK, 1995–2015: a population-based cohort study

Objective This cohort study evaluates the unknown age-specific and gender-specific incidence of primary shoulder dislocations in the UK. Setting UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used to identify patients aged 16–70 years with a shoulder dislocation during 1995–2015. Coding of primary shoulder dislocations was validated using the CPRD general practitioner questionnaire service. Participants A cohort of 16 763 patients with shoulder dislocation aged 16–70 years during 1995–2015 were identified. Primary outcome measure Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years and 95% CIs were calculated. Results Correct coding of shoulder dislocation within CPRD was 89% (95% CI 83% to 95%), and confirmation that the dislocation was a ‘primary’ was 76% (95% CI 67% to 85%). Seventy-two percent of shoulder dislocations occurred in men. The overall incidence rate in men was 40.4 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 40.4 to 40.4), and in women was 15.5 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 15.5 to 15.5). The highest incidence was observed in men aged 16–20 years (80.5 per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI 80.5 to 80.6). Incidence in women increased with age to a peak of 28.6 per 100 000 person-years among those aged 61–70 years. Conclusions This is the first time the incidence of shoulder dislocations has been studied using primary care data from a national database, and the first time the results for the UK have been produced. While most primary dislocations occurred in young men, an unexpected finding was that the incidence increased in women aged over 50 years, but not in men. The reasons for this are unknown. Further work is commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research to examine treatments and predictors for recurrent shoulder dislocation. Study registration The design of this study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (15_260) for the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.