Antonio A. Golpe

Is entrepreneurship a leading or lagging indicator of the business cycle? Evidence from UK self-employment data

Previous studies provide suggestive evidence that entrepreneurship varies with the state of the business cycle. This article extends the knowledge base by exploring whether the rate of self-employment – a widely used measure of entrepreneurship – is a lagging or leading indicator of the business cycle. The study, which utilizes time series UK data on aggregate output, unemployment and self-employment rates, is robust to structural breaks in the cyclical relationships between these variables. The study finds evidence of significant bi-directional causality: that is, entrepreneurship both causes and is caused by business cycles. The covariance of entrepreneurship is positive with respect to output and negative with respect to unemployment.

Testing for hysteresis in entrepreneurship in 23 OECD countries

We explore the macrostructure of entrepreneurship rates in a panel of 23 OECD countries over 1972--2006. We find that rates of entrepreneurship in OECD countries exhibit persistence rather than hysteresis. Implications for the design of entrepreneurship policies are discussed.

Self-employment and job generation in metropolitan areas, 1969-2009

Many regional development policy initiatives assume that entrepreneurial activities promote economic growth. Empirical research has presented rationale for this argument showing that small firms create proportionally more new jobs than large firms. However, little research has been performed on the issue of net job generation at the urban level, particularly when self-employment is considered as an indicator of entrepreneurial activities. This paper investigates to what extent US metropolitan areas in the 1969–2009 period characterized by relatively high rates of self-employment also have shown relatively high rates of subsequent total employment growth. The analysis corrects for the influence of sectoral composition, wage level, educational attainment, presence of research universities and size of the metropolitan area to measure the extent to which the number and quality of self-employed in a region contribute to total employment growth. It finds the relationship between self-employment rates and subsequent total employment growth to be positive on average during the 40-year period but to weaken over time.

Self-Employment and Business Cycles

The relationship between self-employment and some macroeconomic variables is and has been at the heart of the debate about self-employment contributions to employment and economic growth. This paper is devoted to the exploration of the co-movement and causality between entrepreneurship and economic performance in both directions. It looks for basic relationships between self-employment and some macroeconomic variables in Spain and the US, using quarterly data from 1987:2 to 2004:4. Our results do not support the procyclicality of self-employment in general, but we found strong evidence on procyclicality for a specific group of self-employed: self-employed with employees (employers) in Spain. On the other hand causality tests suggest that the business cycle (GDP or unemployment) causes to employers and provides evidence on instantaneous causality between self-employment/own-account workers and GDP, in Spain. For the US we found weak correlations between self-employment and the business cycle (they tend to become larger when the forecast horizon increases).

The environmental Kuznets curve and CO2 emissions in the USA

In this paper, we analyze the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve as reported by Kuznets (Am Econ Rev 5:1–28, 1955) by using the methodology proposed by Kejriwal and Perron (J Econ 146:59–73, 2008, J Bus Econ Stat 28:503–522, 2010) and applying Jaunky’s (Energy Policy 39(3):1228–1240, 2011) specification using quarterly data from 1973:1 to 2015:2. We also allow different behaviors across time and identify it by economic sectors. Our results show the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the USA only when we allow for structural breaks. Interestingly, the industrial sector shows a different pattern than do other economic sectors; with the beginning of the economic crisis, it appears to have abandoned the objective of the environmental stabilization found until then.

Comovement Between Self-Employment and Macroeconomic Variables

The relationship between self-employment and certain macroeconomic variables is often at the heart of the debate about the contributions of self-employment to employment and economic growth; examining this relationship is the aim of this article. This article is devoted to the empirical exploration of the comovement and causality between entrepreneurship and economic performance in both directions. This study searches for basic relationships between self-employment and certain macroeconomic variables in Spain using quarterly data from 1980:1 to 2009:4. From this analysis, four key findings emerge: (a) the relation between self-employment and the business cycle differs across two components of self-employment, that is, employers and own-account workers; (b) the existence of a strong bidirectional causality between self-employment and unemployment and GDP; (c) business cycles contain information valuable for predicting today’s employers; and (d) entrepreneurship promotion policies oriented to encourage the emergence of new job creators may be a cornerstone of a new strategy to combat unemployment. These results should be kept in mind when designing entrepreneurship policies.

CO2 emissions convergence among 10 South American countries : a study of Kaya components (1980–2010)

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the convergence process in CO2 emissions per capita among 10 South American countries from 1980 to 2010 based on their Kaya components, namely, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity and CO2 intensity. This work tries to find out whether a set of countries of a given region share common convergence patterns in CO2 emission per capita and in its driving forces. First, a descriptive statistical analysis is carried out, and then Phillips and Sul methodology is applied to test the existence of convergence clubs in the pathway of evolution of each Kaya component. An analysis of inequality was also performed, considering three exogenous groups of countries. The results show that the region, as a whole, does not present a global convergence pattern regarding CO2 emissions per capita; however, the evidence suggests the formation of various convergence clubs for each Kaya component and even for the Kaya identity as a whole.

Self-employment and business cycles: searching for asymmetries in a panel of 23 OECD countries

The aim of this work is to identify whether the bidirectional relationship between entrepreneurship cycles and output gaps is asymmetric depending on the phase of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a panel threshold regression model in which different relations can prevail in each regime, defined by the values of the threshold variable. The findings of this article qualify previous empirical results. In particular, our estimates provide support for the existence of different responses – both in terms of sign and magnitude – of cyclical self-employment to output growth and of output growth to cyclical self-employment, depending on the value of the threshold variable. The result is highly important for policy makers and practitioners given that whether they ignore the asymmetric impact that an entrepreneurship promotion policy action might have on the real economy, the action might lead to unexpected effects.

Comovement Between Self-Employment and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence From Spain

The relationship between self-employment and certain macroeconomic variables is often at the heart of the debate about the contributions of self-employment to employment and economic growth; examining this relationship is the aim of this article. This article is devoted to the empirical exploration of the comovement and causality between entrepreneurship and economic performance in both directions. This study searches for basic relationships between self-employment and certain macroeconomic variables in Spain using quarterly data from 1980:1 to 2009:4. From this analysis, four key findings emerge: (a) the relation between self-employment and the business cycle differs across two components of self-employment, that is, employers and own-account workers; (b) the existence of a strong bidirectional causality between self-employment and unemployment and GDP; (c) business cycles contain information valuable for predicting today’s employers; and (d) entrepreneurship promotion policies oriented to encourage the emergence of new job creators may be a cornerstone of a new strategy to combat unemployment. These results should be kept in mind when designing entrepreneurship policies.

Labour Market Institutions and Entrepreneurship

The impact of labour market institutions on both labour supply and job search rates has been exhaustively analysed in Labour Economics from theoretical as well as empirical approaches. However, research on the impact of this regulation on self-employment and its composition is limited, that is, the impact of labour market institutions on occupational choice and labour demand. In this context, the aim of this study is to revise the effects of certain labour market institutions on self-employment rates, defining the key dimensions and revising those indicators that could be used for capturing these effects, making an abstraction of the tax system effects.