Antonio Aquino

Changes over time in the pattern of comparative advantage in manufactured goods: An empirical analysis for the period 1962-1974

Abstract This article presents a simple methodology for analysing empirically the extent, pace, and timing of changes over time in the pattern of comparative advantage in manufactured goods. This methodology is based upon the OLS estimation of time series of values of some elasticity- parameters measuring the impact of various country-attributes, and in particular of technology- endowments, upon the pattern of comparative advantage in each product. The methodology proposed here is then applied to the empirical analysis of shifts in the pattern of comparative advantage in 25 groups of products over the period 1962–1974.

Key Determinants of Poverty Risk in Italy

This paper illustrates the main regional differences of Italian poverty and presents an econometric analysis of the key determinants of poverty risk for the period from 1992 to 2008. The results show that an increase by 1% in the unemployment rate and a lower level of education raise the risk of being trapped in poverty by 0.42% and 1.7%, respectively. Conversely, social protection benefits and higher levels of education attainments contribute significantly to reduce this risk. Since the low rate of employment in «foot-loose activities» is one of the main culprits of the poor economic conditions in Southern Italy, a fiscal measure which aims at promoting automatic incentives to employment in manufacturing activities is suggested. This policy could contribute to securing employment and reducing poverty in a country characterized by a secular divide, with a light burden for public finances, and a positive sideeffect on Italys balance of payments.

Competitive Imbalances as the Fundamental Cause of the Euro Area Crisis

For about three thousand years the international monetary system was based on currencies with an intrinsic value connected to its content in some precious metal, specie-flows maintained competitive equilibrium, and, at least in normal times, exchange rates were stable. Since the nineteen seventies currencies have no intrinsic value. With currencies without any intrinsic value, how the equilibrium exchange rates could be defined? Which is the equilibrating mechanism? The experience has shown that flexible exchange rates determined by currency markets are often volatile and several countries have hence tried to maintain fixed exchange rates through interventions in currency markets. Governments, however, do not have sufficient financial resources to contrast effectively destabilizing speculation. Some EU countries, to eradicate the problem of unpredictably variable exchange rates, starting from 1999, have adopted a common currency. But the absence of an effective equilibrating mechanism led to strong competitive imbalances and the euro seemed on the verge of a collapse in 2009–2010. The price divergence went back to the first years of the euro, but it remained quite unnoticed until 2008, when competitive imbalances had reached so high a level to make it appear very difficult to eliminate them without a break-up of the euro. From 2010 to 2016, against most predictions, a competitive balance inside the euro area seems to have been substantially restored, and the risk of a break-up of the euro has been greatly reduced, but only at the cost of very strong deflationary policies in Mediterranean countries and Ireland.

Sunny prospects: an analysis of the photovoltaic industry in Italy

The present study provides an analysis of the Italian photovoltaic sector (PV). To this purpose, we first evaluate the main characteristics of the Italian PV incentive scheme by focusing on its costs and benefits. The analysis then turns to the evolution of PV demand over recent years, the key features of the Italian PV supply and its performances by identifying the strengths, limitations and growth prospects of the sector. The investigation relies on accounting data of the Italian producers collected from the Bureau van Dijk’s Amadeus database, over the 2000- 2010 years. Some industrial policy implications conclude the work.