António Caleiro

How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal

By the use of fuzzy logic, this paper shows how confidence is related to unemployment in Portugal. The results indicate it to be a worthwhile exercise, as the apparent importance of unemployment upon confidence is only revealed by the fuzzy logic approximation.

How Can Voters Classify an Incumbent Under Output Persistence

The literature on electoral cycles has developed in two distinct phases. The first one considered the existence of non-rational (naive) voters whereas the second one considered fully rational voters. In our perspective, an intermediate approach is more interesting, i.e. one that considers learning voters, which are boundedly rational. In this sense, neural networks may be considered as learning mechanisms used by voters to perform a classification of the incumbent in order to distinguish opportunistic (electorally motivated) from benevolent (non-electorally motivated) behaviour. The paper shows in which circumstances a neural network, namely a perceptron, can resolve that problem of classification. This is done by considering a model allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may make it impossible to correctly classify the incumbent.

Editorial Note - Regional Disparities and Convergence

This number of the IJLTFES – International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance and Economic Sciences – is dedicated specifically to Regional Disparities and Convergence.

An Application of Statistical Methods of Indirect Estimation and Projection of Internal Migration Flows Within the Portuguese Mainland

The study of migration flows is always problematic, essentially because there is not a systematic process of collecting background information. In the case of internal migration, restrictions on the available data are even more problematic and make it totally unfeasible to measure directly those movements. When the data on (regional) migration is incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable, the estimation or quantification of regional migration flows is made possible by the application of indirect methods of estimation. Andrei Rogers, along with several others, developed and tested over several years methodologies that allow us to analyze and quantify indirectly the different behaviors of regional migration. These methodologies are applied in the chapter, considering the case of Portugal.

Understanding the transition to work for first degree university graduates in Portugal

A traditional way of looking at the importance of universities assumes that these are sources of positive effects from the viewpoint of the inputs. In accordance to this perspective, the importance of a university can be measured by its regional/national multiplier effects. This perspective can be complemented with the analysis of the issues associated with the transition to work by their graduates. The paper thus analyses the factors that may be important to explain the time to obtain the first job by first degree students, using a sample of students from one university in Portugal. In doing so, we estimate several specifications of discrete-time duration models. The results show that there are significant differences among the students from the several courses and highlight the importance of the final mark in the course. Nevertheless, in particular, we conclude that there are no significant differences between the area of Economics and Management and the area of Engineering and that these study areas are the most successful ones. We also did not find any significant differences between male and female students. Finally, we also conclude that there are significant differences on the probability of leaving unemployment among the several years considered in the sample, which reflects the business cycle.