Antonio Caselles

SYSTEMS DECOMPOSITION AND COUPLING

In order to handle efficiently complex models of real systems, it is a convenient practice to decompose them into subsystems that are validated independently. The next step would be joining the subsystems into a global system and performing a new global validation. A formalization of this process is performed as a consequence of practical experience with a model generator expert system based on general systems theory.

Cocaine addiction and personality: A mathematical model

The existence of a close relation between personality and drug consumption is recognized, but the corresponding causal connection is not well known. Neither is it well known whether personality exercises an influence predominantly at the beginning and development of addiction, nor whether drug consumption produces changes in personality. This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model of personality and addiction based on the unique personality trait theory (UPTT) and the general modelling methodology. This model attempts to integrate personality, the acute effect of drugs, and addiction. The UPTT states the existence of a unique trait of personality called extraversion, understood as a dimension that ranges from impulsive behaviour and sensation-seeking (extravert pole) to fearful and anxious behaviour (introvert pole). As a consequence of drug consumption, the model provides the main patterns of extraversion dynamics through a system of five coupled differential equations. It combines genetic extraversion, as a steady state, and dynamic extraversion in a unique variable measured on the hedonic scale. The dynamics of this variable describes the effects of stimulant drugs on a short-term time scale (typical of the acute effect); while its mean time value describes the effects of stimulant drugs on a long-term time scale (typical of the addiction effect). This understanding may help to develop programmes of prevention and intervention in drug misuse.

IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SYSTEMS-BASED MODELS GENERATOR SIGEM

Program generators, for us, are computer programs that produce other computer programs. SIGEM is an expert system program generator that can help in the modeling process of real systems. It is associated with a methodology well adapted to modeling practice. In this paper, we present and compare this methodology with other similar ones. Static models (databases), dynamic models, rule-based expert systems, literal and/or numerical variables, probabilistic uncertainty in data and in functions, dimensioned variables, discrete event simulation, and other related problems can be treated with this methodology. We suggest a systems modeling methodology and a programming tool to increase generality of application and easiness of use.

A dynamic extraversion model. The brain's response to a single dose of a stimulant drug

The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical dynamic modelling of the effect a stimulant drug has on different people which, at the same time, can be a useful tool for future brain studies. To this end, a dynamic model of the evolution of extraversion (considering its tonic and phasic aspects) has been constructed taking into account the unique personality trait theory and the general modelling methodology. This model consists of a delayed differential equation which, on one hand, considers that the active stimulus, a consequence of a single intake, is not constant; on the other hand, it contemplates that the state variable representing the phasic extraversion also represents the brain activation. The derivative of this state variable is calculated as the sum of the homeostatic control flow, the excitatory effect flow and the inhibitor effect flow. The solutions of this equation relate the tonic activation of an individual (that characterizes his or her personality) with his or her phasic activation level, whose evolution over time describes the organisms response to a single drug intake. These solutions quantitatively reproduce the predictions of current personality theories and anticipate vulnerability to drug misuse and addiction development.

General Factor of Personality Questionnaire (GFPQ): only one Factor to Understand Personality?

This study proposes a psychometric approach to assess the General Factor of Personality (GFP) to explain the whole personality. This approach defends the existence of one basic factor that represents the overall personality. The General Factor of Personality Questionnaire (GFPQ) is presented to measure the basic, combined trait of the complete personality. The questionnaire includes 20 items and is constituted by two scales with 10 items each one: the Extraversion Scale (ES) and the Introversion Scale (IS). The GFPQ shows adequate internal consistency and construct validity, while the relationships with the personality factors of other models and with psychopathology are as expected. It correlates positively and significantly with Extraversion (E) and Psychoticism (P), and negatively with Neuroticism (N) of Eysencks EPQ (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire); it correlates positively and significantly with the Sensation Seeking Scaled (SSS) of Zuckerman, and is inside the expected direction with Sensitivity to Reward (SR) and Sensitivity to Punishment (SP) of the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire (SPSRQ), which represent the approach and avoidance trends of behavior, respectively. It not only relates negatively with the personality disorders of the anxiety spectrum, but also with the emotional disorders in relation to anxiety and depression, and it relates positively with the antisocial personality disorder.

Age-Structured Human Population Dynamics

ABSTRACT A von Foerster-McKendrick model to study age-structured human population dynamics is presented in this paper. Forecasts of population density (population per age unit) depending on ages are possible using this model. The model consists of a quasi-linear first order partial differential equation for the dynamics of population density per age-unit (except for the zero-age), a boundary condition for the births flow at zero-age, and an initial condition for the population density at the initial instant. A general solution independent of the particular human-system under study is obtained based on some hypotheses about the mathematical structure of its input variables. The model has been successfully applied to the case of the city of Valencia, Spain, for the time period 1991–2001.

Structure and behavior in general systems theory

This paper introduces the concepts of structure and behavior in recent formalizations of general systems theory and, at the same time, sets up the basic concepts of a partial systems theory that served as a base for a realistic model generator expert system.

A Stochastic Model for Population and Well-Being Dynamics

This article presents a stochastic dynamic model to study the demographic evolution per sexes and the corresponding well-being of a general human population. The main model variables are population per sexes and well-being. The considered well-being variable is the Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), a United Nations index. The models objectives are to improve future well-being and to reach a stable population in a country. The application case consists of adapting, validating, and using the model for Spain in the 2000–2006 period. Some instance strategies have been tested in different scenarios for the 2006–2015 period to meet these objectives by calculating the reliability of the results. The optimal strategy is “government invests more in education and maintains the present health investment tendency.”

A Side-by-Side Single Sex Age-Structured Human Population Dynamic Model: Exact Solution and Model Validation

A side-by-side single sex age-structured population dynamic model is presented in this paper. The model consists of two coupled von Foerster-McKendrick-type quasi-linear partial differential equations, two initial conditions, and two boundary conditions. The state variables of the model are male and female population densities. The solutions of these partial differential equations provide explicit time and age dependence of the variables. The initial conditions define the male and female population densities at the initial time, while the boundary conditions compute the male and female births at zero-age by using fertility rates. The assumptions of the nontime-dependence of the death and fertility rates and a specific factorization of the migratory balances allow us to obtain exact solutions for male and female population densities. In addition, the hypotheses about the mathematical structure of the input variables are formulated, and the exact solution of the model is obtained. Next, the model is applied to the case study of Spain for the time period 1996–2004. Model validation demonstrates that this approach is a powerful prediction tool. Code and data are available upon request.

Self-Regulation Therapy to Reproduce Drug Effects: A Suggestion Technique to Change Personality and the DRD3 Gene Expression

Abstract This study proposes a strategy, based on self-regulation therapy, to change personality and its biological substrate, the DRD3 gene expression. It has been demonstrated that acute doses of stimulating drugs, like methylphenidate, are able to change personality and the expression of certain genes in the short term. On the other hand, self-regulation therapy has been proven to reproduce the effects of drugs. Thus, it is feasible to hope that self-regulation therapy is equally effective as methylphenidate in changing personality and the gene expression. This is a preliminary study with a single-case experimental design with replication in which 2 subjects participated. The results and potential implications for research and psychotherapy are discussed.