Antonio Merlo

A Political Economy Model of Congressional Careers

Theories in political economy depend critically on assumptions about motivations of politicians. Our analysis starts from the premise that politicians, like other economic agents, are rational individuals who make career decisions by comparing the expected returns of alternative choices. The main goal of the paper is to quantify the returns to a career in the United States Congress. To achieve this goal we specify a dynamic model of career decisions of a member of Congress and we estimate this model using a newly collected data set. Given estimates of the structural model, we assess reelection probabilities for members of Congress, estimate the effect of congressional experience on private and public sector wages, and quantify the value of a congressional seat. Moreover, we use the estimated model to assess how the imposition of term limits would affect the career decisions of politicians and the returns to a career in Congress.

A Stochastic Model of Sequential Bargaining with Complete Information

The authors consider a k-player sequential bargaining model in which the size of the cake and the order in which players move follow a general Markov process. For games in which one agent makes an offer in each period and agreement must be unanimous, the authors provide characterizations of the sets of subgame perfect and stationary subgame perfect payoffs. With these characterizations, they investigate the uniqueness and efficiency of the equilibrium outcomes, the conditions under which agreement is delayed, and the advantage to proposing. Copyright 1995 by The Econometric Society.

Government Turnover in Parliamentary Democracies

In this paper we consider a dynamic model of government formation and termination in parliamentary democracies. Our analysis accounts for the following observed phenomena: (1) Cabinet reshuffles; (2) Cabinet replacements; (3) Early elections; (4) Surplus governments; (5) Minority governments; (6) The relative instability of minority governments.

On the Political Economy of Income Redistribution and Crime

In this paper we consider a general equilibrium model where heterogeneous agents specialize either in legitimate market activities or in criminal activities and majority rule determines the share of income redistributed and the expenditures devoted to the apprehension of criminals. We calibrate our model to the U.S. economy in 1990, and we conduct simulation exercises to evaluate the effectiveness of expenditures on police protection and income redistribution at reducing crime. We find that while expenditures on police protection reduce crime, it is possible for the crime rate to increase with redistribution. We also show that economies that adopt relatively more generous redistribution policies may have either higher or lower crime rates than economies with relatively less generous redistribution policies, depending on the characteristics of their wage distribution and on the efficiency of their apprehension technology.

An empirical investigation of coalitional bargaining procedures

Models of government formation processes in multi party democracies are usually highly sensitive to the rules that govern the selection of formateurs (i.e., the parties selected to propose a potential government). The theoretical literature has focused on two selection rules: selection proportional to seat share, and selection in order of seat share. In this paper we use a new data set on government formations in 11 parliamentary democracies to empirically assess which selection rule most closely approximates the data. We find that while there is little empirical support for selection in order of seat share, proportional selection fits the data well.

Majority Rule in a Stochastic Model of Bargaining

In this paper we consider multilateral stochastic bargaining models with general agreement rules. For n-player games where in each period a player is randomly selected to allocate a stochastic level of surplus and q (less than or equal to n) players have to agree on a proposal to induce its acceptance, we characterize the set of stationary subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs and establish their existence. We show that for agreement rules other than the unanimity rule, the equilibrium payoffs need not be unique. Furthermore, even when the equilibrium is unique, it need not be efficient.

Gender Differences in Education in a Dynamic Household Bargaining Model

In this paper, we explore the issue of gender differences in education in the context of a two-sexoverlapping generations model where men and women of each generation bargain over consumption, number of children, and investment in education of their children conditional on gender, andparents are altruistic toward their children. We show that the difference in the education levels ofboys and girls implied by our model is smaller than the one that would result from a pureinvestment model. Also, we show that as long as the time cost associated with bearing childrenis positive, women bear the entire time cost associated with child rearing. We use our model toestimate the cost to a woman of having a child. The estimate we obtain using cross-country datasuggests that such cost amounts to about 5% of the working lifetime of a woman.

Whither Political Economy? Theories, Facts and Issues

In this paper, I discuss recent developments in political economy. By focusing on the microeconomic side of the discipline, I present an overview of current research on four of the fundamental institutions of a political economy: voters, politicians, parties and governments. For each of these topics, I identify and discuss some of the salient questions that have been posed and addressed in the literature, present some stylized models and examples, and summarize the main theoretical findings. Furthermore, I describe the available data, review the relevant empirical evidence, and discuss some of the challenges for empirical research in political economy.

Learning by Not Doing: An Experimental Investigation of Observational Learning

In this paper we present experimental evidence suggesting that observational learning (i.e. learning by not doing but by observing) may outperform learning by doing.

The Home Selling Problem: Theory and Evidence

We formulate and solve the problem of a homeowner who wants to sell her house for the maximum possible price net of transactions costs. We estimate this model using data on transaction histories for 780 residential properties in England. The estimated model fits list price dynamics and other key features of the data. In particular, a tiny menu cost of changing the listing price, as little as ten thousandths of 1% of the house value, is sufficient to explain the high degree of stickiness of listing prices observed in the data.