Antonio Nicolucci

Long-term effects of continuing adjuvant tamoxifen to 10 years versus stopping at 5 years after diagnosis of oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: ATLAS, a randomised trial

Summary Background For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years. Methods In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12 894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633. Findings Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12 894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%). Interpretation For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.

Effects of statins in patients with chronic kidney disease: meta-analysis and meta-regression of randomised controlled trials

Objective To analyse the benefits and harms of statins in patients with chronic kidney disease (pre-dialysis, dialysis, and transplant populations). Design Meta-analysis. Data sources Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, Embase, and Renal Health Library (July 2006). Study selection Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials of statins compared with placebo or other statins in chronic kidney disease. Data extraction and analysis Two reviewers independently assessed trials for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed trial quality. Differences were resolved by consensus. Treatment effects were summarised as relative risks or weighted mean differences with 95% confidence intervals by using a random effects model. Results Fifty trials (30 144 patients) were included. Compared with placebo, statins significantly reduced total cholesterol (42 studies, 6390 patients; weighted mean difference −42.28 mg/dl (1.10 mmol/l), 95% confidence interval −47.25 to −37.32), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (39 studies, 6216 patients; −43.12 mg/dl (1.12 mmol/l), −47.85 to −38.40), and proteinuria (g/24 hours) (6 trials, 311 patients; −0.73 g/24 hour, −0.95 to −0.52) but did not improve glomerular filtration rate (11 studies, 548 patients; 1.48 ml/min (0.02 ml/s), −2.32 to 5.28). Fatal cardiovascular events (43 studies, 23 266 patients; relative risk 0.81, 0.73 to 0.90) and non-fatal cardiovascular events (8 studies, 22 863 patients; 0.78, 0.73 to 0.84) were reduced with statins, but statins had no significant effect on all cause mortality (44 studies, 23 665 patients; 0.92, 0.82 to 1.03). Meta-regression analysis showed that treatment effects did not vary significantly with stage of chronic kidney disease. The side effect profile of statins was similar to that of placebo. Most of the available studies were small and of suboptimal quality; mortality data were provided by a few large trials only. Conclusion Statins significantly reduce lipid concentrations and cardiovascular end points in patients with chronic kidney disease, irrespective of stage of disease, but no benefit on all cause mortality or the role of statins in primary prevention has been established. Reno-protective effects of statins are uncertain because of relatively sparse data and possible outcomes reporting bias.

Aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events in people with diabetes: meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Objective To evaluate the benefits and harms of low dose aspirin in people with diabetes and no cardiovascular disease. Design Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Medline (1966-November 2008), the Cochrane central register of controlled trials (Cochrane Library 2008;issue 4), and reference lists of retrieved articles. Review methods Randomised trials of aspirin compared with placebo or no aspirin in people with diabetes and no pre-existing cardiovascular disease were eligible for inclusion. Data on major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and all cause mortality) were extracted and pooled with a random effect model. Results are reported as relative risks with 95% confidence intervals. Results Of 157 studies in the literature searches, six were eligible (10 117 participants). When aspirin was compared with placebo there was no statistically significant reduction in the risk of major cardiovascular events (five studies, 9584 participants; relative risk 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.00), cardiovascular mortality (four studies, n=8557, 0.94; 0.72 to 1.23), or all cause mortality (four studies, n=8557; 0.93, 0.82 to 1.05). Significant heterogeneity was found in the analysis for myocardial infarction (I2=62.2%; P=0.02) and stroke (I2=52.5%; P=0.08). Aspirin significantly reduced the risk of myocardial infarction in men (0.57, 0.34 to 0.94) but not in women (1.08, 0.71 to 1.65; P for interaction=0.056). Evidence relating to harms was inconsistent. Conclusions A clear benefit of aspirin in the primary prevention of major cardiovascular events in people with diabetes remains unproved. Sex may be an important effect modifier. Toxicity is to be explored further.

Anti-inflammatory effect of exercise training in subjects with type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome is dependent on exercise modalities and independent of weight loss

BACKGROUND AND AIMS We investigated the effect of different exercise modalities on high sensitivity-C reactive protein (hs-CRP) and other inflammatory markers in patients with type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome. METHODS AND RESULTS Eighty-two patients were randomized into 4 groups: sedentary control (A); receiving counseling to perform low-intensity physical activity (B); performing prescribed and supervised high-intensity aerobic (C) or aerobic+resistance (D) exercise (with the same caloric expenditure) for 12 months. Evaluation of leisure-time physical activity and assessment of physical fitness, cardiovascular risk factors and inflammatory biomarkers was performed at baseline and every 3 months. Volume of physical activity increased and HbA(1c) decreased in Groups B-D. VO(2max), HOMA-IR index, HDL-cholesterol, waist circumference and albuminuria improved in Groups C and D, whereas strength and flexibility improved only in Group D. Levels of hs-CRP decreased in all three exercising groups, but the reduction was significant only in Groups C and D, and particularly in Group D. Changes in VO(2max) and the exercise modalities were strong predictors of hs-CRP reduction, independent of body weight. Leptin, resistin and interleukin-6 decreased, whereas adiponectin increased in Groups C and D. Interleukin-1β, tumor necrosis factor-α and interferon-γ decreased, whereas anti-inflammatory interleukin-4 and 10 increased only in Group D. CONCLUSION Physical exercise in type 2 diabetic patients with the metabolic syndrome is associated with a significant reduction of hs-CRP and other inflammatory and insulin resistance biomarkers, independent of weight loss. Long-term high-intensity (preferably mixed) training, in addition to daytime physical activity, is required to obtain a significant anti-inflammatory effect.

Diabetes Attitudes, Wishes and Needs second study (DAWN2™): Cross‐national benchmarking of diabetes‐related psychosocial outcomes for people with diabetes

The second Diabetes Attitudes, Wishes and Needs (DAWN2) study aimed to assess psychosocial outcomes in people with diabetes across countries for benchmarking.

Metformin therapy and risk of cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review.

Aims/Hypothesis Diabetes treatments were related with either an increased or reduced risk of cancer. There is ongoing debate about a potential protective action of metformin. To summarize evidence on the association between metformin and risk of cancer and cancer mortality in patients with diabetes. Methods Data source: MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 1966-April 2012). We selected randomized studies comparing metformin and other hypoglycaemic agents and observational studies exploring the association between exposure to metformin and cancer. Outcomes were cancer mortality, all malignancies and site-specific cancers. Results Of 25307 citations identified, 12 randomized controlled trials (21,595 patients) and 41 observational studies (1,029,389 patients) met the inclusion criteria. In observational studies there was a significant association of exposure to metformin with the risk of cancer death [6 studies, 24,410 patients, OR:0.65, 95%CI: 0.53-0.80], all malignancies [18 studies, 561,836 patients, OR:0.73, 95%CI: 0.61-0.88], liver [8 studies, 312,742 patients, OR:0.34; 95%CI: 0.19-0.60] colorectal [12 studies, 871,365 patients, OR:0.83, 95%CI: 0.74–0.92], pancreas [9 studies, 847,248 patients, OR:0.56, 95%CI: 0.36–0.86], stomach [2 studies, 100701 patients, OR:0.83, 95%CI: 0.76–0.91], and esophagus cancer [2 studies, 100694 patients, OR:0.90, 95%CI: 0.83–0.98]. No significant difference of risk was observed in randomized trials. Metformin was not associated with the risk of: breast cancer, lung cancer, ovarian cancer, uterus cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, kidney cancer, and melanoma. Conclusions/Interpretation Results suggest that Metformin might be associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cancer and cancer-related mortality. Randomized trials specifically designed to evaluate the efficacy of metformin as an anticancer agent are warranted.

Meta-analysis: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents in patients with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND Previous meta-analyses suggest that treatment with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases the risk for death. Additional randomized trials have been recently completed. PURPOSE To summarize the effects of ESA treatment on clinical outcomes in patients with anemia and CKD. DATA SOURCES MEDLINE (January 1966 to November 2009), EMBASE (January 1980 to November 2009), and the Cochrane database (to March 2010) were searched without language restriction. STUDY SELECTION Two authors independently screened reports to identify randomized trials evaluating ESA treatment in people with CKD. Hemoglobin target trials or trials of ESA versus no treatment or placebo were included. DATA EXTRACTION Two authors independently extracted data on patient characteristics, study risks for bias, and the effects of ESA therapy. DATA SYNTHESIS 27 trials (10 452 patients) were identified. A higher hemoglobin target was associated with increased risks for stroke (relative risk [RR], 1.51 [95% CI, 1.03 to 2.21]), hypertension (RR, 1.67 [CI, 1.31 to 2.12]), and vascular access thrombosis (RR, 1.33 [CI, 1.16 to 1.53]) compared with a lower hemoglobin target. No statistically significant differences in the risks for mortality (RR, 1.09 [CI, 0.99 to 1.20]), serious cardiovascular events (RR, 1.15 [CI, 0.98 to 1.33]), or end-stage kidney disease (RR, 1.08 [CI, 0.97 to 1.20]) were observed, although point estimates favored a lower hemoglobin target. Treatment effects were consistent across subgroups, including all stages of CKD. LIMITATIONS The evidence for effects on quality of life was limited by selective reporting. Trials also reported insufficient information to allow analysis of the independent effects of ESA dose on clinical outcomes. CONCLUSION Targeting higher hemoglobin levels in CKD increases risks for stroke, hypertension, and vascular access thrombosis and probably increases risks for death, serious cardiovascular events, and end-stage renal disease. The mechanisms for harm remain unclear, and meta-analysis of individual-patient data and trials on fixed ESA doses are recommended to elucidate these mechanisms. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

Effect of an Intensive Exercise Intervention Strategy on Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus A Randomized Controlled Trial: The Italian Diabetes and Exercise Study (IDES)

BACKGROUND This study aimed to assess the efficacy of an intensive exercise intervention strategy in promoting physical activity (PA) and improving hemoglobin A(1c)(HbA(1c)) level and other modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS Of 691 eligible sedentary patients with T2DM and the metabolic syndrome, 606 were enrolled in 22 outpatient diabetes clinics across Italy and randomized by center, age, and diabetes treatment to twice-a-week supervised aerobic and resistance training plus structured exercise counseling (exercise group) vs counseling alone (control group) for 12 months. End points included HbA(1c) level (primary) and other cardiovascular risk factors and coronary heart disease risk scores (secondary). RESULTS The mean (SD) volume of PA (metabolic equivalent hours per week) was significantly higher (P < .001) in the exercise (total PA [nonsupervised conditioning PA + supervised PA], 20.0 [0.9], and nonsupervised, 12.4 [7.4]) vs control (10.0 [8.7]) group. Compared with the control group, supervised exercise produced significant improvements (mean difference [95% confidence interval]) in physical fitness; HbA(1c) level (-0.30% [-0.49% to -0.10%]; P < .001); systolic (-4.2 mm Hg [-6.9 to -1.6 mm Hg]; P = .002) and diastolic (-1.7 mm Hg [-3.3 to -1.1 mm Hg]; P = .03) blood pressure; high-density lipoprotein (3.7 mg/dL [2.2 to 5.3 mg/dL]; P < .001) and low-density lipoprotein (-9.6 mg/dL [-15.9 to -3.3 mg/dL]; P = .003) cholesterol level; waist circumference (-3.6 cm [-4.4 to -2.9 cm]; P < .001); body mass index; insulin resistance; inflammation; and risk scores. These parameters improved only marginally in controls. CONCLUSIONS This exercise intervention strategy was effective in promoting PA and improving HbA(1c) and cardiovascular risk profile. Conversely, counseling alone, though successful in achieving the currently recommended amount of activity, was of limited efficacy on cardiovascular risk factors, suggesting the need for a larger volume of PA in these high-risk subjects. Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN04252749.

Prevalence of depression in chronic kidney disease: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Prevalence estimates of depression in chronic kidney disease (CKD) vary widely in existing studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies to summarize the point prevalence of depressive symptoms in adults with CKD. We searched MEDLINE and Embase (through January 2012). Random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms. We also limited the analyses to studies using clinical interview and prespecified criteria for diagnosis. We included 249 populations (55,982 participants). Estimated prevalence of depression varied by stage of CKD and the tools used for diagnosis. Prevalence of interview-based depression in CKD stage 5D was 22.8% (confidence interval (CI), 18.6-27.6), but estimates were somewhat less precise for CKD stages 1-5 (21.4% (CI, 11.1-37.2)) and for kidney transplant recipients (25.7% (12.8-44.9)). Using self- or clinician-administered rating scales, the prevalence of depressive symptoms for CKD stage 5D was higher (39.3% (CI, 36.8-42.0)) relative to CKD stages 1-5 (26.5% (CI, 18.5-36.5)) and transplant recipients (26.6% (CI, 20.9-33.1)) and suggested that self-report scales may overestimate the presence of depression, particularly in the dialysis setting. Thus, interview-defined depression affects approximately one-quarter of adults with CKD. Given the potential prevalence of depression in the setting of CKD, randomized trials to evaluate effects of interventions for depression on patient-centered outcomes are needed.

Association of Aspirin Use With Major Bleeding in Patients With and Without Diabetes

CONTEXT The benefit of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events is relatively small for individuals with and without diabetes. This benefit could easily be offset by the risk of hemorrhage. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of major gastrointestinal and intracranial bleeding episodes in individuals with and without diabetes taking aspirin. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A population-based cohort study, using administrative data from 4.1 million citizens in 12 local health authorities in Puglia, Italy. Individuals with new prescriptions for low-dose aspirin (≤300 mg) were identified during the index period from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2008, and were propensity-matched on a 1-to-1 basis with individuals who did not take aspirin during this period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Hospitalizations for major gastrointestinal bleeding or cerebral hemorrhage occurring after the initiation of antiplatelet therapy. RESULTS There were 186,425 individuals being treated with low-dose aspirin and 186,425 matched controls without aspirin use. During a median follow-up of 5.7 years, the overall incidence rate of hemorrhagic events was 5.58 (95% CI, 5.39-5.77) per 1000 person-years for aspirin users and 3.60 (95% CI, 3.48-3.72) per 1000 person-years for those without aspirin use (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.55; 95% CI, 1.48-1.63). The use of aspirin was associated with a greater risk of major bleeding in most of the subgroups investigated but not in individuals with diabetes (IRR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.97-1.22). Irrespective of aspirin use, diabetes was independently associated with an increased risk of major bleeding episodes (IRR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.44). CONCLUSIONS In a population-based cohort, aspirin use was significantly associated with an increased risk of major gastrointestinal or cerebral bleeding episodes. Patients with diabetes had a high rate of bleeding that was not independently associated with aspirin use.