Antonio Spilimbergo

Fiscal Policy for the Crisis

Spilimbergo, Antonio; Symansky, Steve Symansky; Blanchar, Olivier; Cottarelli, Carlo.December, 2008.Fiscal policy for the crisis,Reports,Washingot,D.CIMF,IMF staff position note,37

Democracy and Foreign Education

Do foreign educated individuals play a role in promoting democracy in their home country? Despite the large amount of private and public resources spent on foreign education, there is no systematic evidence that foreign educated individuals foster democracy in their home countries. Using a unique panel dataset on foreign students starting from 1950, I show that indeed foreign-educated individuals promote democracy in their home country, but only if the foreign education is acquired in democratic countries. The results are robust to reverse causality, country-specific omitted variables, and inclusion of a variety of control variables. The results are stronger for small countries.

Political Economy, Sectoral Shocks, and Border Enforcement

In this paper, we examine the correlation between sectoral shocks and border enforcement in the United States. Enforcement of national borders is the main policy instrument the U.S. government uses to combat illegal immigration. The motivation for the exercise is to see whether border enforcement falls following positive shocks to sectors that are intensive in the use of undocumented labor, as would be consistent with political economy models of how enforcement policy against illegal immigration is determined. The main finding is that border enforcement is negatively correlated with lagged relative price changes in the apparel, fruits and vegetables, and slaughtered livestock industries and with housing starts in the western United States. This suggests that authorities relax border enforcement when the demand for undocumented workers is high.

How Do the Skilled and the Unskilled Respond to Regional Shocks?: The Case of Spain

Are there any differences in how workers of different skill levels respond to regional shocks? This paper addresses that question using the methodology of Blanchard and Katz (1992) and a unique data set on working-age population, labor force, and employment for five educational groups (ranging from the illiterate to the college-educated) over 1964-92 for the 50 Spanish provinces. The paper finds that the high-skilled migrate very promptly in response to a decline in regional labor demand, while the low-skilled drop out of the labor force or stay unemployed.

Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries

This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in low-income countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging economies. Given the weak institutional frameworks, reduced role of securities markets, imperfect competition in the banking sector and the resulting high cost of bank lending to private firms, the traditional channels (interest rate, bank lending, and asset price) are impaired in LICs. The exchange rate channel is also undermined by central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. These conclusions are supported by review of the institutional frameworks, statistical analysis, and previous literature.

Family Attachment and the Decision to Move by Race

Blacks in the United States have a lower geographic mobility rates than whites even though they have several characteristics that are usually associated with high rates of mobility: high unemployment, low rate of home ownership, low marriage rate and settlement in areas where unemployment is high. This paper tests the relevance of family ties in explaining mobility by using proxies that are constructed using data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics, covering the period 1977–88. The results are robust to different specifications and estimation techniques, and explain the puzzle of the role played by the nuclear and the extended family in the decision to move.

Income Distribution, Factor Endowments, and Trade Openness

This paper studies the empirical links among factor endowments, trade, and personal income distribution. The motivation is that many developing countries have implemented radical trade reforms in recent years. These reforms have changed relative prices, induced a reallocation of resources, and may have led to the introduction of new production techniques. These changes are quite complex and their final effect on income distribution is theoretically unclear. The author`s aim is to present the stylized empirical facts on the relations between income distribution, factor endowments, and trade.

What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis

After the large exchange rate depreciations following the 1997 East Asian crisis, export volumes from East Asian countries responded with a notable lag. Two main explanations for this lag have been proposed: that contraction in domestic credit affected supply of exports; and that ‘competitive depreciation’ by other countries neutralized the effects on demand for exports. This Paper considers the plausibility of these two mechanisms using a new monthly database on exports of selected industries. The results indicate that ‘competitive depreciation’ played an important role in the propagation of the East Asian crisis through the trade channel, even at a monthly frequency.

Perspectives on Regional Unemployment in Europe

The third stage of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was implemented in January 1999 against the specter of persistently high unemployment in many of the participating countries. While the high European unemployment has received considerable attention, this new IMF staff study analyzes an equally important issue: the extent of regional unemployment disparities in certain countries. The paper focuses on large and persistent differences in regional unemployment rates within several European countries. The paper includes detailed case studies of two euro area countries where regional disparities in unemployment are striking- Italy and Spain. The studies emphasize that wages are unresponsive to local labor market conditions.

Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960–98

This paper studies the links between world copper prices and the Chilean economy. The main conclusion is that world copper prices play an important role in short-term economic fluctuations. While many mechanisms may be at work, investment seems to play a major role. During a copper price boom, the higher copper revenues and associated capital inflows create upward pressure on the real exchange rate. In turn the, appreciation of the Chilean peso during the first part of the copper cycle contributes to lower inflation, which could explain why real wages grow more rapidly in this part of the cycle.