Antonio Yunez-Naude

The Determinants of Nonfarm Activities and Incomes of Rural Households in Mexico, with Emphasis on Education

Abstract This paper presents the main results of a study of the effects of education (as well as other household assets) on the choice of activities and incomes of rural Mexican households. Our study examines the various income sources, as well as the education of the households head and its members. Implications are drawn for rural education and development policies to promote rural nonfarm incomes and employment.

The Returns from Schooling in a Diversified Rural Economy

Controlling for the endogeneity of activity choice and considering both household-head and family schooling, we findevid ence of high returns from schooling in both crop andnoncrop activities. As schooling levels increase, the returns from schooling shift away from crop production. Failure to control for activity selection andfamily schooling is likely to result in biasedestimates of the returns from schooling in individual activities. Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.

The Dismantling of CONASUPO, a Mexican State Trader in Agriculture

In the 1990s, Mexico gradually dismantled and ultimately liquidated CONASUPO, its state enterprise in agriculture. CONASUPO was a typical less developed country (LDC) parastatal, exacting control over an important component of Mexicos food chain. This paper examines the demise of CONASUPO in the context of domestic economic reforms and trade liberalisation. It documents the process by which CONASUPO was eleminated, the political environment that made this possible, and the implications for agricultural production and trade. The paper concludes by distilling lessons from Mexicos experience for other LDCs as the liberalisation of domestic and international markets continues to unfold.

Dispersal of Transgenes through Maize Seed Systems in Mexico

Objectives Current models of transgene dispersal focus on gene flow via pollen while neglecting seed, a vital vehicle for gene flow in centers of crop origin and diversity. We analyze the dispersal of maize transgenes via seeds in Mexico, the crops cradle. Methods We use immunoassays (ELISA) to screen for the activity of recombinant proteins in a nationwide sample of farmer seed stocks. We estimate critical parameters of seed population dynamics using household survey data and combine these estimates with analytical results to examine presumed sources and mechanisms of dispersal. Results Recombinant proteins Cry1Ab/Ac and CP4/EPSPS were found in 3.1% and 1.8% of samples, respectively. They are most abundant in southeast Mexico but also present in the west-central region. Diffusion of seed and grain imported from the United States might explain the frequency and distribution of transgenes in west-central Mexico but not in the southeast. Conclusions Understanding the potential for transgene survival and dispersal should help design methods to regulate the diffusion of germplasm into local seed stocks. Further research is needed on the interactions between formal and informal seed systems and grain markets in centers of crop origin and diversification.

The Economics of Ecotourism: A Galapagos Islands Economy-Wide Perspective

Ecotourism, the fastest growing sector of the largest industry on earth, is strongly advocated by major conservation groups as a way to help conserve nature. Its potential for generating income while creating incentives for conservation has sparked academic discussion regarding the meaning of ecotourism and attention to the design of integrated conservation and tourism projects. With a few exceptions, economists have been absent from these discussions. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) and the Ecotourism Society define ecotourism as “responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and sustains the well-being of local people.” A basic premise of this article is that there may be trade-offs between these two goals. Expanding tourism can generate pressures for demographic growth by widening the economic disparities between tourist destinations and outside economies, stimulating migration to fill jobs linked directly or indirectly to tourism. This may create a tourism-income-population growth spiral at nature destinations inviting to tourists. Researchers have observed what appears to be a strong association between tourism and local population growth. A few economists have assessed ecotourism’s potential for generating income, but economic research into ecotourism’s impacts and its potential for creating conservation incentives is sparse. Current insights along these lines come primarily from noneconomists. Sven Wunder notes that “when economic aspects are treated, it is mostly without quantification that would allow for a

Agricultural Price Policy, Employment, and Migration in a Diversified Rural Economy: A Village-Town CGE Analysis from Mexico

Using the village-town computable general equilibrium (CGE) model this paper explores the implications of resource mobility across farm and non-farm activities and alternative model closure rules in shaping agricultural policy impacts. Two sets of agricultural policy experiments on three alternative model-closure scenarios were conducted using data from a 1993 survey of 196 households in Michoacan Mexico including 53 in a town or county seat and 143 in the surrounding villages. Experiment 1 simulates the village-town economy-wide impact of a 10% decrease in the support price for staples. Experiment 2 combines this support-price decrease with a compensating lump-sum income transfer to staple producers similar to what actually occurred under Mexicos PROCAMPO program. Results show that the prediction made by the aggregate CGE model that Mexicos agricultural price liberalization reduces rural employment and incomes and stimulates migration was not materialized. The decline in staple production has been relatively small and it has concentrated on large commercial farms rather than in small-farm sector in which most producers are found and from which most migrants originate. However with the use of village-town model and microsurvey data the authors demonstrated that under plausible market closure conditions Mexicos staple price liberalization has a minimal effect on rural wagers and migration. This is contrary to the predictions of the aggregated CGE model.

Agricultural Policy Reforms and Village Economies: A Computable General-Equilibrium Analysis from Mexico

Abstract This paper explores the impacts of agricultural trade and development policies on production, incomes, and migration in rural Mexico using a village computable general-equilibrium (CGE) framework. Three versions of the villagewide model are used to analyze the implications of rural market imperfections in shaping agricultural and trade policy impacts. Policy experiments reveal that maize-price liberalization under NAFTA will result in large changes in maize production but relatively small changes in household-farm incomes and migration. Increases in the productivity of family resources in household-farm production, unlike direct income payments currently being implemented in Mexico, can achieve both efficiency and income distribution gains while neutralizing the migration impact of maize price reforms.

Genetic erosion in maize’s center of origin

Significance Unlike germplasm banks, on-farm conservation allows crops to evolve continuously in response to changing conditions. Agricultural adaptation to climate change, emerging pests, and diseases thus depends on conserving crop genetic diversity in situ. However, increasing awareness of these issues has not translated into effective conservation policies. We find that previous assessments of on-farm maize diversity in Mexico are flawed and conceal widespread genetic erosion that could thwart current food security strategies for climate adaptation. Unable to mitigate declining yields by recourse to diversity, farmers might abandon agriculture, leading to a vicious cycle of yield and diversity losses. A reassessment of the conservation status in other centers of crop diversity is similarly urgent but could take a decade given data requirements. Crop genetic diversity is an indispensable resource for farmers and professional breeders responding to changing climate, pests, and diseases. Anecdotal appraisals in centers of crop origin have suggested serious threats to this diversity for over half a century. However, a nationwide inventory recently found all maize races previously described for Mexico, including some formerly considered nearly extinct. A flurry of social studies seems to confirm that farmers maintain considerable diversity. Here, we compare estimates of maize diversity from case studies over the past 15 y with nationally and regionally representative matched longitudinal data from farmers across rural Mexico. Our findings reveal an increasing bias in inferences based on case study results and widespread loss of diversity. Cross-sectional, case study data suggest that farm-level richness has increased by 0.04 y−1 nationwide; however, direct estimates using matched longitudinal data reveal that richness dropped −0.04 y−1 between 2002 and 2007, from 1.43 to 1.22 varieties per farm. Varietal losses occurred across regions and altitudinal zones, and regardless of farm turnover within the sector. Extinction of local maize populations may not have resulted in an immediate loss of alleles, but low varietal richness and changes in maize’s metapopulation dynamics may prevent farmers from accessing germplasm suitable to a rapidly changing climate. Declining yields could then lead farmers to leave the sector and result in a further loss of diversity. Similarities in research approaches across crops suggest that methodological biases could conceal a loss of diversity at other centers of crop origin.

Reply to Brush et al.: Wake-up call for crop conservation science

We strongly concur with Brush et al. (1) regarding the urgency for a new generation of studies (2), but reject claims that our findings are unsupported and our comparisons false, a misperception that could delay adequate academic and policy responses. First, spurious or not, it is not our interpretation that we put to the test but that of influential scholars who, notwithstanding studies’ design and methodological differences, conclude that “there is increasing evidence that small-scale farmers throughout the world, and especially in areas of crop domestication and diversity, continue to maintain a diverse set of crop varieties” (3) and “after thirty years of crop collection and research … the concept of genetic erosion remains more a presumption of what is likely to occur than a demonstrated fact” (4).

Inverse Productivity or Inverse Efficiency? Evidence from Mexico

Abstract Using a unique panel data set from rural Mexico, we find strong evidence of a negative relationship between farm size and both productivity and technical efficiency: large farms not only have a lower value of output per hectare than small farms, they also produce further from the efficiency frontier. Our findings suggest that, in spite of the ongoing transformation of agricultural supply chains and economists’ recommendations for small farmers to exit crop production, there may be sustained advantages for smallholder farms. Our analysis offers new insights into inverse-farm size relationship, the productivity–efficiency relationship, and the use of stochastic frontier techniques.