Aparna Lal

Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide. Methods We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Findings Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Seasonality in human zoonotic enteric diseases: A systematic review

Background Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour. Methodology/Principal Findings We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960–2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini = 0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18). Conclusions/Significance Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries.

Potential effects of global environmental changes on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis transmission

Global climate change will affect the viability and spread of zoonotic parasites, while agricultural land use changes will influence infection sources and reservoirs. The health impact of these environmental changes will depend on the social, economic and physical resilience of the population. This review describes the influence of climatic variability, land-use changes, and social factors on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in humans. Global to public health to individual-level interventions to reduce future disease burden are highlighted. Because future environmental change is expected to have the greatest health impacts in countries with limited resources, increasing research and adaptation capabilities in these regions is emphasized. Understanding how environmental and social processes interact to influence disease transmission is essential for the development of effective strategies for disease prevention.

Climate Variability, Weather and Enteric Disease Incidence in New Zealand: Time Series Analysis

Background Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases. Objectives To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand. Methods Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. Results No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p <0.01) and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) two months previously (β =  −0.008, SE =  0.004, p <0.05). By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β  = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001) of the current month and SOI of the current (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050) and previous month (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05). Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher. Conclusions Although spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

The epidemiology of human salmonellosis in New Zealand, 1997–2008

This study describes the epidemiology of human salmonellosis in New Zealand using notified, hospitalized and fatal cases over a 12-year period (1997-2008). The average annual incidence for notifications was 42·8/100 000 population and 3·6/100 000 population for hospitalizations. Incidence was about twice as high in summer as in winter. Rural areas had higher rates than urban areas (rate ratio 1·23, 95% confidence interval 1·22-1·24 for notifications) and a distinct spring peak. Incidence was highest in the 0-4 years age group (154·2 notifications/100 000 and 11·3 hospitalizations/100 000). Hospitalizations showed higher rates for Māori and Pacific Island populations compared to Europeans, and those living in more deprived areas, whereas notifications showed the reverse, implying that notifications are influenced by health-seeking behaviours. Salmonella Typhimurium was the dominant serotype followed by S. Enteritidis. For a developed country, salmonellosis rates in New Zealand have remained consistently high suggesting more work is needed to investigate, control and prevent this disease.

Increasing Incidence of Salmonella in Australia, 2000-2013

Salmonella is a key cause of foodborne gastroenteritis in Australia and case numbers are increasing. We used negative binomial regression to analyze national surveillance data for 2000–2013, for Salmonella Typhimurium and non-Typhimurium Salmonella serovars. We estimated incidence rate ratios adjusted for sex and age to show trends over time. Almost all states and territories had significantly increasing trends of reported infection for S. Typhimurium, with states and territories reporting annual increases as high as 12% (95% confidence interval 10–14%) for S. Typhimurium in the Australian Capital Territory and 6% (95% CI 5–7%) for non-Typhimurium Salmonella in Victoria. S. Typhimurium notification rates were higher than non-Typhimurium Salmonella rates in most age groups in the south eastern states of Australia, while non-Typhimurium rates were higher in most age groups elsewhere. The S. Typhimurium notification rate peaked at 12–23 months of age and the non-Typhimurium Salmonella notification rate peaked at 0–11 months of age. The age-specific pattern of S. Typhimurium cases suggests a foodborne origin, while the age and geographic pattern for non-Typhimurium may indicate that other transmission routes play a key role for these serovars.

Cryptosporidiosis: A Disease of Tropical and Remote Areas in Australia

Cryptosporidiosis causes gastroenteritis and is transmitted to humans via contaminated water and food, and contact with infected animals and people. We analyse long-term cryptosporidiosis patterns across Australia (2001–2012) and review published Australian studies and jurisdictional health bulletins to identify high risk populations and potential risk factors for disease. Using national data on reported cryptosporidiosis, the average annual rate of reported illness was 12.8 cases per 100 000 population, with cycles of high and low reporting years. Reports of illness peak in summer, similar to other infectious gastrointestinal diseases. States with high livestock densities like New South Wales and Queensland also record a spring peak in illnesses. Children aged less than four years have the highest rates of disease, along with adult females. Rates of reported cryptosporidiosis are highest in the warmer, remote regions and in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations. Our review of 34 published studies and seven health department reports on cryptosporidiosis in Australia highlights a lack of long term, non-outbreak studies in these regions and populations, with an emphasis on outbreaks and risk factors in urban areas. The high disease rates in remote, tropical and subtropical areas and in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations underscore the need to develop interventions that target the sources of infection, seasonal exposures and risk factors for cryptosporidiosis in these settings. Spatial epidemiology can provide an evidence base to identify priorities for intervention to prevent and control cryptosporidiosis in high risk populations.

Relative competence of native and exotic fish hosts for two generalist native trematodes

Exotic fish species frequently acquire native parasites despite the absence of closely related native hosts. They thus have the potential to affect native counterparts by altering native host-parasite dynamics. In New Zealand, exotic brown trout Salmo trutta and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have acquired two native trematodes (Telogaster opisthorchis and Stegodexamene anguillae) from their native definitive host (the longfin eel Anguilla dieffenbachii). We used a combination of field surveys and experimental infections to determine the relative competence of native and exotic fish hosts for these native parasites. Field observations indicated that the longfin eel was the superior host for both parasites, although differences between native and exotic hosts were less apparent for S. anguillae. Experimental infections indicated that both parasites had poorer establishment and survival in salmonids, although some worms matured and attained similar sizes to those in eels before dying. Overall, the field surveys and experimental infections indicate that these exotic salmonids are poor hosts of both native trematodes and their presence may decrease native parasite flow to native hosts.

Life history and reproduction of two abundant mysids (Mysidacea: Mysidae) in an intermittently open New Zealand estuary

Mysids typically form a large proportion of the hyperbenthic faunal biomass in estuaries and are central to the functioning of estuarine food webs. The population dynamics, annual life histories and reproductive effort of two common temperate estuarine mysids, Tenagomysis chiltoni and T. novae-zealandiae, are described in the intermittently open Kaikorai Lagoon, New Zealand. Mysids were sampled by night, monthly from September 2003 to September 2004. Both species completed their life cycles in the lagoon. There was an apparent spatial separation of breeding populations, with T. chiltoni prevalent in the upper lagoon and T. novae-zealandiae dominating the lower lagoon. Densities were lowest in late winter and peaked in late summer/early autumn for both species. Both species exhibited multivoltine life cycles, with breeding peaks occurring in October 2003, December 2003 and February/March 2004 for T. novae-zealandiae, and October/November 2003 and February/March 2004 for T. chiltoni. Breeding strategy for both species varied over the year with the adult size, brood size and the reproductive effort of both T. novae-zealandiae and T. chiltoni all being highest in spring. The life histories of both T. novae-zealandiae and T. chiltoni in the Kaikorai Lagoon are comparable to life histories described for other temperate estuarine mysid species in large open estuaries, and were not significantly modified to cope with the unpredictable demands of life in an intermittent estuary.

Climate change-induced increases in precipitation are reducing the potential for solar ultraviolet radiation to inactivate pathogens in surface waters

Climate change is accelerating the release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to inland and coastal waters through increases in precipitation, thawing of permafrost, and changes in vegetation. Our modeling approach suggests that the selective absorption of ultraviolet radiation (UV) by DOM decreases the valuable ecosystem service wherein sunlight inactivates waterborne pathogens. Here we highlight the sensitivity of waterborne pathogens of humans and wildlife to solar UV, and use the DNA action spectrum to model how differences in water transparency and incident sunlight alter the ability of UV to inactivate waterborne pathogens. A case study demonstrates how heavy precipitation events can reduce the solar inactivation potential in Lake Michigan, which provides drinking water to over 10 million people. These data suggest that widespread increases in DOM and consequent browning of surface waters reduce the potential for solar UV inactivation of pathogens, and increase exposure to infectious diseases in humans and wildlife.