Archie Clements

What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality

Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987-2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data.

Clostridium difficile PCR ribotype 027: assessing the risks of further worldwide spread

Summary Highly virulent strains of Clostridium difficile have emerged since 2003, causing large outbreaks of severe, often fatal, colitis in North America and Europe. In 2008–10, virulent strains spread between continents, with the first reported cases of fluoroquinolone-resistant C difficile PCR ribotype 027 in three Asia-Pacific countries and Central America. We present a risk assessment framework for assessing risks of further worldwide spread of this pathogen. This framework first requires identification of potential vehicles of introduction, including international transfers of hospital patients, international tourism and migration, and trade in livestock, associated commodities, and foodstuffs. It then calls for assessment of the risks of pathogen release, of exposure of individuals if release happens, and of resulting outbreaks. Health departments in countries unaffected by outbreaks should assess the risk of introduction or reintroduction of C difficile PCR ribotype 027 using a structured risk-assessment approach.

Overcrowding and understaffing in modern health-care systems: Key determinants in meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus transmission

Recent decades have seen the global emergence of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), causing substantial health and economic burdens on patients and health-care systems. This epidemic has occurred at the same time that policies promoting higher patient throughput in hospitals have led to many services operating at, or near, full capacity. A result has been limited ability to scale services according to fluctuations in patient admissions and available staff, and hospital overcrowding and understaffing. Overcrowding and understaffing lead to failure of MRSA control programmes via decreased health-care worker hand-hygiene compliance, increased movement of patients and staff between hospital wards, decreased levels of cohorting, and overburdening of screening and isolation facilities. In turn, a high MRSA incidence leads to increased inpatient length of stay and bed blocking, exacerbating overcrowding and leading to a vicious cycle characterised by further infection control failure. Future decision making should use epidemiological and economic evidence to evaluate the effect of systems changes on the incidence of MRSA infection and other adverse events.

An updated atlas of human helminth infections: the example of East Africa

BackgroundReliable and updated maps of helminth (worm) infection distributions are essential to target control strategies to those populations in greatest need. Although many surveys have been conducted in endemic countries, the data are rarely available in a form that is accessible to policy makers and the managers of public health programmes. This is especially true in sub-Saharan Africa, where empirical data are seldom in the public domain. In an attempt to address the paucity of geographical information on helminth risk, this article describes the development of an updated global atlas of human helminth infection, showing the example of East Africa.MethodsEmpirical, cross-sectional estimates of infection prevalence conducted since 1980 were identified using electronic and manual search strategies of published and unpublished sources. A number of inclusion criteria were imposed for identified information, which was extracted into a standardized database. Details of survey population, diagnostic methods, sample size and numbers infected with schistosomes and soil-transmitted helminths were recorded. A unique identifier linked each record to an electronic copy of the source document, in portable document format. An attempt was made to identify the geographical location of each record using standardized geolocation procedures and the assembled data were incorporated into a geographical information system.ResultsAt the time of writing, over 2,748 prevalence surveys were identified through multiple search strategies. Of these, 2,612 were able to be geolocated and mapped. More than half (58%) of included surveys were from grey literature or unpublished sources, underlining the importance of reviewing in-country sources. 66% of all surveys were conducted since 2000. Comprehensive, countrywide data are available for Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda. In contrast, information for Kenya and Tanzania is typically clustered in specific regions of the country, with few records from areas with very low population density and/or environmental conditions which are unfavourable for helminth transmission. Information is presented on the prevalence and geographical distribution for the major helminth species.ConclusionFor all five countries, the information assembled in the current atlas provides the most reliable, up-to-date and comprehensive source of data on the distribution of common helminth infections to guide the rational implementation of control efforts.

Using serological measures to monitor changes in malaria transmission in Vanuatu

BackgroundWith renewed interest in malaria elimination, island environments present unique opportunities to achieve this goal. However, as transmission decreases, monitoring and evaluation programmes need increasingly sensitive tools to assess Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax exposure. In 2009, to assess the role of serological markers in evaluating malaria transmission, a cross-sectional seroprevalence study was carried out in Tanna and Aneityum, two of the southernmost islands of the Vanuatu archipelago, areas where malaria transmission has been variably reduced over the past few decades.MethodsMalaria transmission was assessed using serological markers for exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax. Filter blood spot papers were collected from 1,249 people from Tanna, and 517 people from Aneityum to assess the prevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum antigens (MSP-119 and AMA-1) and two P. vivax antigens (MSP-119 and AMA-1). Age-specific prevalence was modelled using a simple catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate a community seroconversion rate (SCR).ResultsOverall seropositivity in Tanna was 9.4%, 12.4% and 16.6% to P. falciparum MSP-119, AMA-1 and Schizont Extract respectively and 12.6% and 15.0% to P. vivax MSP-119 and AMA-1 respectively. Serological results distinguished between areas of differential dominance of either P. vivax or P. falciparum and analysis of age-stratified results showed a step in seroprevalence occurring approximately 30 years ago on both islands, indicative of a change in transmission intensity at this time. Results from Aneityum suggest that several children may have been exposed to malaria since the 2002 P. vivax epidemic.ConclusionSeroepidemiology can provide key information on malaria transmission for control programmes, when parasite rates are low. As Vanuatu moves closer to malaria elimination, monitoring changes in transmission intensity and identification of residual malaria foci is paramount in order to concentrate intervention efforts.

Spatial heterogeneity of parasite co-infection : Determinants and geostatistical prediction at regional scales

Multiple parasite infections are widespread in the developing world and understanding their geographical distribution is important for spatial targeting of differing intervention packages. We investigated the spatial epidemiology of mono- and co-infection with helminth parasites in East Africa and developed a geostatistical model to predict infection risk. The data used for the analysis were taken from standardised school surveys of Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale/Necator americanus) carried out between 1999 and 2005 in East Africa. Prevalence of mono- and co-infection was modelled using satellite-derived environmental and demographic variables as potential predictors. A Bayesian multi-nominal geostatistical model was developed for each infection category for producing maps of predicted co-infection risk. We show that heterogeneities in co-infection with S. mansoni and hookworm are influenced primarily by the distribution of S. mansoni, rather than the distribution of hookworm, and that temperature, elevation and distance to large water bodies are reliable predictors of the spatial large-scale distribution of co-infection. On the basis of these results, we developed a validated geostatistical model of the distribution of co-infection at a scale that is relevant for planning regional disease control efforts that simultaneously target multiple parasite species.

Mapping the Risk of Anaemia in Preschool-Age Children: The Contribution of Malnutrition, Malaria, and Helminth Infections in West Africa

Ricardo Soares Magalhães and colleagues used national cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys to map the distribution of anemia risk in preschool children in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Mali.

A Comparative Study of the Spatial Distribution of Schistosomiasis in Mali in 1984–1989 and 2004–2006

Background We investigated changes in the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Mali following a decade of donor-funded control and a further 12 years without control. Methodology/Principal Findings National pre-intervention cross-sectional schistosomiasis surveys were conducted in Mali in 1984–1989 (in communities) and again in 2004–2006 (in schools). Bayesian geostatistical models were built separately for each time period and on the datasets combined across time periods. In the former, data from one period were used to predict prevalence of schistosome infections for the other period, and in the latter, the models were used to determine whether spatial autocorrelation and covariate effects were consistent across periods. Schistosoma haematobium prevalence was 25.7% in 1984–1989 and 38.3% in 2004–2006; S. mansoni prevalence was 7.4% in 1984–1989 and 6.7% in 2004–2006 (note the models showed no significant difference in mean prevalence of either infection between time periods). Prevalence of both infections showed a focal spatial pattern and negative associations with distance from perennial waterbodies, which was consistent across time periods. Spatial models developed using 1984–1989 data were able to predict the distributions of both schistosome species in 2004–2006 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was typically >0.7) and vice versa. Conclusions/Significance A decade after the apparently successful conclusion of a donor-funded schistosomiasis control programme from 1982–1992, national prevalence of schistosomiasis had rebounded to pre-intervention levels. Clusters of schistosome infections occurred in generally the same areas accross time periods, although the precise locations varied. To achieve long-term control, it is essential to plan for sustainability of ongoing interventions, including stengthening endemic country health systems.

Catheter-associated bloodstream infection incidence and risk factors in adults with cancer: a prospective cohort study

Central venous catheter-associated bloodstream infections (CABSIs) cause considerable morbidity in patients with cancer. We determined the incidence and risk factors for CABSI by performing a prospective observational cohort study of all adult patients requiring a central venous access device (CVAD) in a haematology-oncology unit. All CVADs were inserted under ultrasound guidance by trained operators in a dedicated interventional radiology facility. A total of 1127 CVADs were assessed in 727 patients over 51,514 line-days. The rate of CABSI per 1000 line-days was 2.50. Factors associated with CABSI included: type of CVAD, greatest for non-tunnelled lines [hazard ratio (HR): 3.50; P < 0.0001] and tunnelled lines (HR: 1.77; P = 0.011) compared to peripherally inserted central venous catheter (PICC) lines; patient diagnosis, greatest for aggressive haematological malignancies (HR: 3.17; P = 0.0007) and least for oesophageal, colon and rectal cancers (HR: 0.29; P = 0.019) compared to other solid tumours; side of insertion, greatest for right-sided lines (HR: 1.60; P = 0.027); and number of prior line insertions (HR: 1.20; P = 0.022). In patients with aggressive haematological malignancies there was significantly more CABSI with non-tunnelled lines (HR: 3.9; P < 0.001) and a trend to more CABSI with tunnelled lines (HR: 1.43; P = 0.12) compared to patients with PICC lines, as well as increased CABSI for right-sided insertions (HR: 1.62; P = 0.047). This study highlights the utility of a standardised CABSI surveillance strategy in adult patients with cancer, provides further data to support the use of PICC lines in such patient populations, and suggests that the side of line insertion may influence risk of CABSI.

Spatial co-distribution of neglected tropical diseases in the East African Great Lakes region: Revisiting the justification for integrated control

Objective  To determine spatial patterns of co‐endemicity of schistosomiasis mansoni and the soil‐transmitted helminths (STHs) Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm in the Great Lakes region of East Africa, to help plan integrated neglected tropical disease programmes in this region.