Arda Özen

Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations.

Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.

Climate change effects on nitrogen loading from cultivated catchments in Europe: implications for nitrogen retention, ecological state of lakes and adaptation

Climate change might have profound effects on the nitrogen (N) dynamics in the cultivated landscape as well as on N transport in streams and the eutrophication of lakes. N loading from land to streams is expected to increase in North European temperate lakes due to higher winter rainfall and changes in cropping patterns. Scenario (IPCC, A2) analyses using a number of models of various complexity for Danish streams and lakes suggest an increase in runoff and N transport on an annual basis (higher during winter and typically lower during summer) in streams, a slight increase in N concentrations in streams despite higher losses in riparian wetlands, higher absolute retention of N in lakes (but not as percentage of loading), but only minor changes in lake water concentrations. However, when taking into account also a predicted higher temperature there is a risk of higher frequency and abundance of potentially toxic cyanobacteria in lakes and they may stay longer during the season. Somewhat higher risk of loss of submerged macrophytes at increased N and phosphorus (P) loading and a shift to dominance of small-sized fish preying upon the key grazers on phytoplankton may also enhance the risk of lake shifts from clear to turbid in a warmer North European temperate climate. However, it must be emphasised that the prediction of N transport and thus effects is uncertain as the prediction of regional precipitation and changes in land-use is uncertain. By contrast, N loading is expected to decline in warm temperate and arid climates. However, in warm arid lakes much higher N concentrations are currently observed despite reduced external loading. This is due to increased evapotranspiration leading to higher nutrient concentrations in the remaining water, but may also reflect a low-oxygen induced reduction of nitrification. Therefore, the critical N as well as P loading for good ecological state in lakes likely has to be lower in a future warmer climate in both north temperate and Mediterranean lakes. To obtain this objective, adaptation measures are required. In both climate zones the obvious methods are to change agricultural practices for reducing the loss of nutrients to surface waters, to improve sewage treatment and to reduce the storm-water nutrient runoff. In north temperate zones adaptations may also include re-establishment of artificial and natural wetlands, introduction of riparian buffer zones and re-meandering of channelised streams, which may all have a large impact on, not least, the N loading of lakes. In the arid zone, also restrictions on human use of water are urgently needed, not least on the quantity of water used for irrigation purposes.

Size-based diel migration of zooplankton in Mediterranean shallow lakes assessed from in situ experiments with artificial plants

In warm lakes, fish aggregate within macrophytes, thereby weakening the role of these as a daytime refuge for zooplankton and altering the zooplankton size structure, predation pressure, and water clarity. To elucidate the role of macrophytes as a refuge for zooplankton and their effect on zooplankton size distribution, we established three sets of strandardized artificial plant beds in 11 lakes in Turkey with contrasting fish predation risk and turbidity. Zooplankton were sampled within and outside of each plant beds during day and night. Fish, collected overnight in multimesh-sized gillnets, were abundant both inside and outside the artificial plant beds, impoverishing the usefulness of plants as a daytime refuge for particularly large-bodied zooplankton. Zooplankton size diversity was negatively related to fish abundance. Diel vertical migration was the frequent anti-predator avoidance behavior, but reverse migration was also observed when Chaoborus was present. In contrast to the small-bodied taxa, large- and medium-sized taxa showed intraspecific size-based migration (i.e., individuals of different sizes had different migration patterns). Predators influenced the size structure and diel movement of zooplankton, but the response changed with the size of zooplankton and water clarity.

Relatedness between contemporary and subfossil cladoceran assemblages in Turkish lakes

Cladocerans are valuable indicators of environmental change in lakes. Their fossils provide information on past changes in lake environments. However, few studies have quantitatively examined the relationships between contemporary and sub-fossil cladoceran assemblages and no investigations are available from Mediterranean lakes where salinity, eutrophication and top-down control of large-bodied cladocerans are known to be important. Here we compared contemporary Cladocera assemblages, sampled in summer, from both littoral and pelagic zones, with their sub-fossil remains from surface sediment samples from 40 Turkish, mainly shallow, lakes. A total of 20 and 27 taxa were recorded in the contemporary and surface sediment samples, respectively. Procrustes rotation was applied to both the principal components analysis (PCA) and redundancy analysis (RDA) ordinations in order to explore the relationship between the cladoceran community and the environmental variables. Procrustes rotation analysis based on PCA showed a significant accord between both littoral and combined pelagic–littoral contemporary and sedimentary assemblages. RDA ordinations indicated that a similar proportion of variance was explained by environmental variation for the contemporary and fossil Cladocera data. Total phosphorus and salinity were significant explanatory variables for the contemporary assemblage, whereas salinity emerged as the only significant variable for the sedimentary assemblage. The residuals from the Procrustes rotation identified a number of lakes with a high degree of dissimilarity between modern and sub-fossil assemblages. Analysis showed that high salinity, deep water and high macrophyte abundance were linked to a lower accord between contemporary and sedimentary assemblages. This low accord was, generally the result of poor representation of some salinity tolerant, pelagic and macrophyte-associated taxa in the contemporary samples. This study provides further confirmation that there is a robust relationship between samples of modern cladoceran assemblages and their sedimentary remains. Thus, sub-fossil cladoceran assemblages from sediment cores can be used with confidence to track long-term changes in this environmentally sensitive group and in Mediterranean lakes, subjected to large inter-annual variation in water level, salinity and nutrients.

Modeling the effects of climatic and land use changes on phytoplankton and water quality of the largest Turkish freshwater lake: Lake Beyşehir

Climate change and intense land use practices are the main threats to ecosystem structure and services of Mediterranean lakes. Therefore, it is essential to predict the future changes and develop mitigation measures to combat such pressures. In this study, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, was selected to study the impacts of climate change and various land use scenarios on the ecosystem dynamics of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and the services that they provide. For this purpose, we linked catchment model outputs to the two different processed-based lake models: PCLake and GLM-AED, and tested the scenarios of five General Circulation Models, two Representation Concentration Pathways and three different land use scenarios, which enable us to consider the various sources of uncertainty. Climate change and land use scenarios generally predicted strong future decreases in hydraulic and nutrient loads from the catchment to the lake. These changes in loads translated into alterations in water level as well as minor changes in chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations. We also observed an increased abundance of cyanobacteria in both lake models. Total phosphorus, temperature and hydraulic loading were found to be the most important variables determining cyanobacteria biomass. As the future scenarios revealed only minor changes in Chl-a due to the significant decrease in nutrient loads, our results highlight that reduced nutrient loading in a warming world may play a crucial role in offsetting the effects of temperature on phytoplankton growth. However, our results also showed increased abundance of cyanobacteria in the future may threaten ecosystem integrity and may limit drinking water ecosystem services. In addition, extended periods of decreased hydraulic loads from the catchment and increased evaporation may lead to water level reductions and may diminish the ecosystem services of the lake as a water supply for irrigation and drinking water.

Water level and fish-mediated cascading effects on the microbial community in eutrophic warm shallow lakes: a mesocosm experiment

Information on the effects of water level changes on microbial planktonic communities in lakes is limited but vital for understanding ecosystem dynamics in Mediterranean lakes subjected to major intra- and inter-annual variations in water level. We performed an in situ mesocosm experiment in an eutrophic Turkish lake at two different depths crossed with presence/absence of fish in order to explore the effects of water level variations and the role of top-down regulation at contrasting depths. Strong effects of fish were found on zooplankton, weakening through the food chain to ciliates, HNF and bacterioplankton, whereas the effect of water level variations was overall modest. Presence of fish resulted in lower biomass of zooplankton and higher biomasses of phytoplankton, ciliates and total plankton. The cascading effects of fish were strongest in the shallow mesocosms as evidenced by a lower zooplankton contribution to total plankton biomass and lower zooplankton:ciliate and HNF:bacteria biomass ratios. Our results suggest that a lowering of the water level in warm shallow lakes will enhance the contribution of bacteria, HNF and ciliates to the plankton biomass, likely due to increased density of submerged macrophytes (less phytoplankton); this effect will, however, be less pronounced in the presence of fish.

Impact of alternating wet and dry periods on long-term seasonal phosphorus and nitrogen budgets of two shallow Mediterranean lakes

The water balance, with large seasonal and annual water level fluctuations, has a critical influence on the nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics of shallow lakes in the semi-arid climate zone. We constructed seasonal water and nutrient budgets for two connected shallow lakes, Lakes Mogan and Eymir, located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The study period covered 20years with alternations between dry and wet years as well as restoration efforts including sewage effluent diversion and biomanipulations in Lake Eymir. Both lakes experienced a 1-2m water level drop during a drought period and a subsequent increase during the wet period, with seasonal water level fluctuations of 0.60 to 0.70m. During wet years with high water levels, small seasonal differences were observed with a nutrient peak in spring caused by external loading and nutrient loss via retention during summer. During years with low water levels, nutrient concentrations increased due to internal and external loading, exacerbated by evaporative water loss. In Lake Eymir, a shift to eutrophic conditions with turbid water occurred under low water level conditions and consequent internal loading of P from the sediment, causing high nutrient concentrations in summer. Our results indicate a threat of lakes drying out in the semi-arid climate zone if evaporation increases and precipitation decreases as anticipated from the global climate change predictions. In addition, our results show the influence of the water balance on the eutrophication of shallow lakes in the Mediterranean climate zone and highlight the ultimate consequences for lake management.

Effects of nutrient and water level changes on the composition and size structure of zooplankton communities in shallow lakes under different climatic conditions: a pan-European mesocosm experiment

Lentic ecosystems act as sentinels of climate change, and evidence exists that their sensitivity to warming varies along a latitudinal gradient. We assessed the effects of nutrient and water level variability on zooplankton community composition, taxonomic diversity and size structure in different climate zones by running a standardised controlled 6-months (May to November) experiment in six countries along a European north–south latitudinal temperature gradient. The mesocosms were established with two different depths and nutrient levels. We took monthly zooplankton samples during the study period and pooled a subsample from each sampling to obtain one composite sample per mesocosm. We found a significant effect of temperature on the community composition and size structure of the zooplankton, whereas no effects of water depth or nutrient availability could be traced. The normalised size spectrum became flatter with increasing temperature reflecting higher zooplankton size diversity due to higher abundance of calanoid copepods, but did not differ among depths or nutrient levels. Large-bodied cladocerans such as Daphnia decreased with temperature. Taxonomic diversity was positively related to size diversity, but neither of the two diversity measures demonstrated a clear pattern along the temperature gradient nor with nutrient and water levels. However, genus richness decreased at the warm side of the temperature gradient. Our experiment generally supports recent empirically based findings that a continuing temperature increase may result in lower genus richness and lower abundance of large-sized zooplankton grazers, the latter likely resulting in reduced control of phytoplankton.

Patterns of microbial food webs in Mediterranean shallow lakes with contrasting nutrient levels and predation pressures

Abstract To elucidate the specific and combined effects of bottom-up and top-down control on the microbial community in warm lakes, we sampled microbial community along with physical–chemical and biological variables and performed in situ food web experiments, in 14 Turkish shallow lakes with contrasting nutrient levels and predation pressures. Our field results revealed that differences in microbial communities correlated with differences in zooplankton community structure, temperature (increasing nutrient concentrations, change in zooplankton composition), nutrient concentrations (increasing bacteria and heterotrophic nanoflagellate abundances with increasing nitrogen concentrations and temperature) and macrophyte coverage (ciliates as potential consumers of bacteria and HNF was strongest in macrophyte-dominated lakes). Our in situ experimental study revealed that the zooplankton not only affect the biomass and composition of microbial communities but also alter the microbial structure and trophic relationships. Our results therefore indicate that both bottom-up factors and top-down effects were important for the efficiency of the carbon transfer from bacteria to higher trophic levels in the study lakes. Due to an anticipated increase in eutrophication, temperature and alteration of the classical food web with climate warming, major changes in the microbial community of lakes are, therefore, expected in a warmer future in semi-arid Mediterranean climatic regions.