Ariana Vorko-Jović

Quantifying the increase in average human heterozygosity due to urbanisation

The human population is undergoing a major transition from a historical metapopulation structure of relatively isolated small communities to an outbred structure. This process is predicted to increase average individual genome-wide heterozygosity (h) and could have effects on health. We attempted to quantify this increase in mean h. We initially sampled 1001 examinees from a metapopulation of nine isolated villages on five Dalmatian islands (Croatia). Village populations had high levels of genetic differentiation, endogamy and consanguinity. We then selected 166 individuals with highly specific personal genetic histories to form six subsamples, which could be ranked a priori by their predicted level of outbreeding. The measure h was then estimated in the 166 examinees by genotyping 1184 STR/indel markers and using two different computation methods. Compared to the value of mean h in the least outbred sample, values of h in the remaining samples increased successively with predicted outbreeding by 0.023, 0.038, 0.058, 0.067 and 0.079 (P<0.0001), where these values are measured on the same scale as the inbreeding coefficient (but opposite sign). We have shown that urbanisation was associated with an average increase in h of up to 0.08–0.10 in this Croatian metapopulation, regardless of the method used. Similar levels of differentiation have been described in many populations. Therefore, changes in the level of heterozygosity across the genome of this magnitude may be common during isolate break-up in humans and could have significant health effects through the established genetic mechanism of hybrid vigour/heterosis.

Effects of Isolation and Inbreeding on Human Quantitative Traits: An Example of Biochemical Markers of Hemostasis and Inflammation

Abstract Isolation is a known force in evolutionary biology and one of the main factors in speciation. One of the main consequences of severe isolation is reduced mate choice, which results in the occurrence of inbreeding as a result of isolation. We investigated the effects of individual genome-wide heterozygosity measured as the multilocus heterozygosity (MLH) on biochemical markers of hemostasis and inflammation in 1,041 individuals from the island of Vis, Croatia, where inbreeding is prevalent and a wide range of variation in the genome-wide heterozygosity is expected. Assessment of individual genome-wide heterozygosity was based on genome-wide scans using 800 microsatellite (STR) and 317,503 single nucleotide (SNP) polymorphic markers in each examinee. In addition, for each examinee we defined a personal genetic history (PGH) based on genealogical records. The association between PGH and MLH and fibrinogen, D-dimer (Dd), von Willebrand factor (vWF), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and C-reactive protein (CRP) was performed with a mixed model, controlling for possible confounding effects. PGH was a significant predictor only for tPA (P < 0.001), whereas neither of the two MLH measures exhibited significant association with any of the investigated traits. The effects of individual genome-wide heterozygosity are most likely expressed in highly polygenically determined traits or in traits that are mediated by rare and recessive genetic variants. Weak associations between PGH and MLH and markers of hemostasis and inflammation suggest that their genetic control may not be highly polygenic and that they could be promising targets for genetic association studies.

Macro model prediction of elderly people's injury and death in road traffic accidents in Croatia

The case of elderly people injured and killed in traffic accidents in Croatia is used to illustrate a prediction method. This method consists of several steps. First, the most important variables are selected. Second, to overcome intercorrelation, new variables are constructed that include the old ones. Third, the new variables and its first derivatives are used in a rank correlation method. The results show good predictive capabilities.