Arie S. Issar

The Past is the Key to the Future

As mentioned above the guiding principle in the author’s research was that “The Past is the Key to Forecasting the Future”. In many respects this reverses the direction, along the dimension of time, of the basic principle of the science of geology, according to which the author was educated. This corner-stone principle, laid down by the founders of the science of geology during the nineteenth century, stated that “The present is a key to the past”. This allowed learning from such present geological processes as the mechanisms and duration of erosion and deposition, to be applied to the time scale and processes of past geological eras.

Progressive Development by Greening the Deserts, to Mitigate Global Warming and Provide New Land and Income Resources

Traveling back on the dimension of time to the 8th millennium before present (BP) the tourist could have gone for a safari in the present hyper-arid part of the Sahara. He could have sailed over vast lakes of fresh water, watched hippopotami and crocodiles and with the local aborigines hunted the giraffes, gazelles and other savanna type ungulates which roamed the plains [13]. One of the French scientists who investigated the paleo-Sahara, late Professor Hugues Faure (Professor of CNRS, France and former chairman of INQUA Carbon Commission, IGCP 404) calculated that during the time when the Sahara flourished, i.e.

The Negev Desert of Israel – A Conceptual Plan of a Progressive Development Project for an Arid Region

This Negev Desert is situated on the intersection lines between climatic zones, geological provinces, ecological systems, and human societies. Due to its special situation one can find in it most types of desert environments, on most scales of aridity. These environments comprise rolling sand dunes, mountainous rocky terrains, loess plains, savannas, alluvial fans and salt marshes. While the Mediterranean climate affects its northern part, its eastern part is affected by the down faulted rift valley (“graben”) topographic features of the Arava Valley, part of the Syrian-African Rift system. This major rupture in the earth’s crust, a geological embryonic phase of a new ocean, contains the Dead Sea in its deepest section, and the Red Sea in its most southern part. Since it was formed, just a few millions years ago, it has caused the deep gorges which flow into it, to cut down and expose a geological section from the most ancient to the youngest layers. In the rocks one can find the most ancient fossils, while in the river terraces the most ancient artifacts. The various types of rocks also produce all land forms of erosion.

Progressive Development of New Marine Environments for the Production of Marine Vegetation

The rise of sea level, a consequence of global warming, will devastate the economy of most countries with sea coasts. Estimates of the rate and extent in the rise of sea level, by thermal water expansion and by melt water from glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, differ among scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (February 2007) [1] foresees sea-level rise of 0.2–0.6 m by 2100, assuming no rapid melting of glaciers. A major melting in Greenland and West Antarctica will add 7 m to the level of the sea. There are worrisome signs that the process has begun. The eventual disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet will add another 7 m to sea level.

Present Global Warming, What Will Be Its Future Impact?

The negative impact of the present global climate change was strongly emphasized by Sir Nicholas Stern, government economic advisor in the United Kingdom. and formerly Chief Economist at the World Bank, His report published on October 31, 2006, described climate change as the “greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen”, but said that action could and should be taken to avert the worst effects. These effects would transform the physical geography of the world with many millions, of people facing starvation, water shortages or homelessness. There will probably be both more droughts and more floods. An increased incidence of devastating storms is expected. And there is an increased risk of famine in the poorest countries.

Progressive Development and Groundwater Resources of Israel

The history of the development of groundwater resources of Israel is the basis on which the conceptual model of Progressive Development was constructed. This development was dictated by various factors. In the first place stands the socio-economic factor, namely the need to secure a supply of water to answer the demand of a fast growing population due to incoming immigration and natural growth. In the second place come the physical-geographical factors resulting from the fact that Israel is located in a semi-arid zone and is susceptible to abrupt variations in the amount of its annual precipitation, including severe droughts. In addition to this factor is the fact that the average annual amount of precipitation in the southern half of the country is less than 200 mm. The third factor, which was dominant mainly in the past, was the limited funds as well as the educational background of most of the new immigrants which was on the level of many of the countries in the third world at present.

The Principles of “Sustainable Development” a Result of Neo-Malthusian Conceptual Model

The Neo-Malthusian ideology professed by the late Professor Donella Meadows led her to establish in 1981 the International Network of Resource Information Centers (INRIC), which distributed, on a global scale, the principles of sustainable development. In 1996 she founded the Sustainability Institute in order to form an educational methodology by which to apply these principles and thus reverse damaging trends in the environment, economy, and social systems.

Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian Prophecies of Calamity

Prophecies of calamities involving starvation due to deficiency of rains are abundant in the Judeo-Christian heritage, thundered by the prophets of the Bible, from the warning words of Moses the first prophet to that of the last. Yet, famine, due to drought, was prophesized to occur as a result of the wrath of the Almighty, and as a punishment of not following His commands. As time progressed these commands were differently interpreted by the various spiritual leaders, who arose and offered new versions of the original ones.

Progressive Development in the Marine Environment

From about 15,000 years ago as the global warming following the Last Glacial Period dried up many of the countries bordering the desert belts, a few human societies started to give up total dependence on hunting and gathering and step by step began to practice domestication of animals and plants. This enabled gradual transition to a sedentary way of life. About ten millennia ago some human societies adopted a way of life almost totally dependant on agriculture and animal exploitation.

The Theoretical Basis Behind the Falsification of the Theory of Malthus and Verification of Condorcet’s Confuted Model

Before discussing the new program of Progressive Development it is important to analyze the wider theoretical basis on which the conceptual model of Malthus was based. As mentioned in arguing against Condorcet and Godwin he claimed that his predictions are based on observations and calculations, while the works which he debated were written as philosophical speculative essays. Malthus’ methodology has set the foundations of modern science of economics and no wonder that the his essay, albeit written about 200 years ago, is obligatory reading for every student of economics and is still included in the reference list of modern articles about economics. On the other hand, the forecast of Condorcet, which was written by a leading mathematician, was based on intuitive ideas and ideals, rather than observations and calculations.