Ariel F. Stein

NOAA’s HYSPLIT Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling System

AbstractThe Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), developed by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory, is one of the most widely used models for atmospheric trajectory and dispersion calculations. We present the model’s historical evolution over the last 30 years from simple hand-drawn back trajectories to very sophisticated computations of transport, mixing, chemical transformation, and deposition of pollutants and hazardous materials. We highlight recent applications of the HYSPLIT modeling system, including the simulation of atmospheric tracer release experiments, radionuclides, smoke originated from wild fires, volcanic ash, mercury, and wind-blown dust.

Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem: READY

Abstract Air quality forecasters, emergency responders, aviation interests, government agencies, and the atmospheric research community are among those who require access to tools to analyze and predict the transport and dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere. Because of this need, the unique web-based Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem (READY) has been under continuous development since 1997 to provide access to a suite of tools for producing air parcel trajectory and dispersion model results and displaying meteorological data. READY provides a “quasi-operational” portal to run the HYSPLIT atmospheric transport and dispersion model and interpret its results. Typical user applications include modeling the release of hazardous pollutants and volcanic ash, forest fire and prescribed burn smoke forecasting, poor air quality events, and various climatological studies. In addition, READY provides the user with quick access to meteorological data interpolated to the location of interest, helping in the interpretation of the HYSPLIT model results.

Does dust from Patagonia reach the sub‐Antarctic Atlantic Ocean?

[1] Although emission of dust from the Patagonia desert is shown by global aerosol models, there is conflicting observational evidence of dust activity in the region. Because dust from Patagonia into the Southern Ocean (SO) may play a role in regulating phytoplankton activity, it is necessary to confirm whether there is dust activity and if so, how far the dust travels into the SO. We used a combination of surface visibility, satellite measurements (MODIS and OMI) and transport model (HYSPLIT) to track and report for the first time a dust event originating in Patagonia. We show that the dust reached the free troposphere in the SubAntarctic Atlantic Ocean. Although the dust emission was significant, cloudiness and dilution of the plume resulted in difficult conditions to track dust in the SW Atlantic. We show that the use of any single tool (i.e., MODIS or OMI) is not enough to track the dust and only an integrated approach of satellite and modeling tools can achieve a consistent description. As a result, current platforms used for dust detection are probably underestimating aerosol loading in the area. Citation: Gasso ´, S., and A. F. Stein (2007), Does dust from Patagonia reach the sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01801, doi:10.1029/2006GL027693.

The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: Development of an Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark

Abstract The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a “test bed” for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implementation of an evaluation protocol. This Pilot Program enlisted three regional-scale air quality models, serving as prototypes, to forecast ozone (O3) concentrations across the northeastern United States during the summer of 2002. A suite of statistical metrics was identified as part of the protocol that facilitated evaluation of both discrete forecasts (observed versus modeled concentrations) and categorical forecasts (observed versus modeled exceedances/nonexceedances) for both the maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) forecasts produced by each of the models. Implementation of the evaluation protocol took place during a 25-day period (August 5–29), utilizing hourly O3 concentration data obtained from over 450 monitors from the U.S. Environment Protection Agency’s Air Quality System network.

Street level air pollution in Córdoba City, Argentina

A street canyon model was used to calculate CO concentrations at downtown Cordoba (Argentina), where emissions from mobile sources are considered the major cause of urban air pollution. Comparison between model calculations and experimental measurements were carried out and good agreement was found.

Levels and chemical composition of PM in a city near a large Cu-smelter in Spain

A long-term series (2001-2008) of chemical analysis of atmospheric particulate matter (PM(10) and PM(2.5)) collected in the city of Huelva (SW Spain) is considered in this study. The impact of emission plumes from one of the largest Cu-smelters in the world on air quality in the city of Huelva is evidenced by the high daily and hourly levels of As, other potentially toxic elements (e.g. Cu, Zn, Cd, Se, Bi, and Pb) in particulate matter, as well as the high levels of some gaseous pollutants (NO(2) and SO(2)). Mean arsenic levels in the PM10 fraction were higher than the target value set by European Directive 2004/107/EC (6 ngAs m(-3)) for 1(st) January 2013. Hourly peak concentrations of As and other metals and elements (Zn, Cu, P and Se) analyzed by PIXE can reach maximum hourly levels as high as 326 ngAs m(-3), 506 ngZn m(-3), 345 ngCu m(-3), 778 ngP m(-3) and 12 ngSe m(-3). The contribution of Cu-smelter emissions to ambient PM is quantified on an annual basis in 2.0-6.7 µg m(-3) and 1.8-4.2 µg m(-3) for PM(10) and PM(2.5), respectively. High resolution outputs of the HYSPLIT dispersion model show the geographical distribution of the As ambient levels into the emission plume, suggesting that the working regime of the Cu-smelter factory and the sea breeze circulation are the main factors controlling the impact of the Cu-smelter on the air quality of the city. The results of this work improve our understanding of the behaviour of industrial emission plumes and their impact on air quality of a city, where the population might be exposed to very high ambient concentrations of toxic metals during a few hours.

Emissions from Pre-Hispanic Metallurgy in the South American Atmosphere

Metallurgical activities have been undertaken in northern South America (NSA) for millennia. However, it is still unknown how far atmospheric emissions from these activities have been transported. Since the timing of metallurgical activities is currently estimated from scarce archaeological discoveries, the availability of reliable and continuous records to refine the timing of past metal deposition in South America is essential, as it provides an alternative to discontinuous archives, as well as evidence for global trace metal transport. We show in a peat record from Tierra del Fuego that anthropogenic metals likely have been emitted into the atmosphere and transported from NSA to southern South America (SSA) over the last 4200 yrs. These findings are supported by modern time back-trajectories from NSA to SSA. We further show that apparent anthropogenic Cu and Sb emissions predate any archaeological evidence for metallurgical activities. Lead and Sn were also emitted into the atmosphere as by-products of Inca and Spanish metallurgy, whereas local coal-gold rushes and the industrial revolution contributed to local contamination. We suggest that the onset of pre-Hispanic metallurgical activities is earlier than previously reported from archaeological records and that atmospheric emissions of metals were transported from NSA to SSA.

U.S. emissions of HFC-134a derived for 2008–2012 from an extensive flask-air sampling network

U.S. national and regional emissions of HFC-134a are derived for 2008-2012 based on atmospheric observations from ground and aircraft sites across the U.S. and a newly developed regional inverse model. Synthetic data experiments were first conducted to optimize the model assimilation design and to assess model-data mismatch errors and prior flux error covariances computed using a maximum likelihood estimation technique. The synthetic data experiments also tested the sensitivity of derived national and regional emissions to a range of assumed prior emissions, with the goal of designing a system that was minimally reliant on the prior. We then explored the influence of additional sources of error in inversions with actual observations, such as those associated with background mole fractions and transport uncertainties. Estimated emissions of HFC-134a range from 52 to 61 Gg yr(-1) for the contiguous U.S. during 2008-2012 for inversions using air transport from Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by the 12km resolution meteorogical data from North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM12) and all tested combinations of prior emissions and background mole fractions. Estimated emissions for 2008-2010 were 20% lower when specifying alternative transport from Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorology. Our estimates (for HYSPLIT-NAM12) are consistent with annual emissions reported by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the full study interval. The results suggest a 10-20% drop in U.S. national HFC-134a emission in 2009 coincident with a reduction in transportation-related fossil fuel CO2 emissions, perhaps related to the economic recession. All inversions show seasonal variation in national HFC-134a emissions in all years, with summer emissions greater than winter emissions by 20-50%.

International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station.

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is part of the verification regime for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO). At entry-into-force, half of the 80 radionuclide stations will be able to measure concentrations of several radioactive xenon isotopes produced in nuclear explosions, and then the full network may be populated with xenon monitoring afterward. An understanding of natural and man-made radionuclide backgrounds can be used in accordance with the provisions of the treaty (such as event screening criteria in Annex 2 to the Protocol of the Treaty) for the effective implementation of the verification regime. Fission-based production of (99)Mo for medical purposes also generates nuisance radioxenon isotopes that are usually vented to the atmosphere. One of the ways to account for the effect emissions from medical isotope production has on radionuclide samples from the IMS is to use stack monitoring data, if they are available, and atmospheric transport modeling. Recently, individuals from seven nations participated in a challenge exercise that used atmospheric transport modeling to predict the time-history of (133)Xe concentration measurements at the IMS radionuclide station in Germany using stack monitoring data from a medical isotope production facility in Belgium. Participants received only stack monitoring data and used the atmospheric transport model and meteorological data of their choice. Some of the models predicted the highest measured concentrations quite well. A model comparison rank and ensemble analysis suggests that combining multiple models may provide more accurate predicted concentrations than any single model. None of the submissions based only on the stack monitoring data predicted the small measured concentrations very well. Modeling of sources by other nuclear facilities with smaller releases than medical isotope production facilities may be important in understanding how to discriminate those releases from releases from a nuclear explosion.

Modeling PM10 Originating from Dust Intrusions in the Southern Iberian Peninsula Using HYSPLIT

The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories (HYSPLIT) model has been applied to calculate the spatial and temporal distributions of dust originating from North Africa. The model has been configured to forecast hourly particulate matter #10 mm (PM10) dust concentrations focusing on the impacts over the southern Iberian Peninsula. Two full years (2008 and 2009) have been simulated and compared against surface background measurement sites. A statistical analysis using discrete and categorical evaluations is presented. The model is capable of simulating the occurrence of Saharan dust episodes as observed at the measurement stations and captures the generally higher levels observed in eastern Andalusia, Spain, with respect to the western Andalusia station. But the simulation tends to underpredict the magnitude of the dust concentration peaks. The model has also been qualitatively compared with satellite data, showing generally good agreement in the spatial distribution of the dust column.