Ariful Hoque

Purchasing Power Parity in the SAARC Region: Evidence from Unit Root Test with Cross-Sectional Dependence

Mixed results on the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) relationship in South Asian countries motivates this paper to conduct a further inquiry. Existing studies lack appropriate treatment of cross-country dependence in the testing procedure. In this paper we employ a method that allows us to identify the degree of cross-sectional dependence (CSD) and apply panel unit root test to accommodate this dependence on the real exchange rate series of five South Asian countries in the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) which include Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. We find evidence of strong cross-country dependence, cross-country correlation being 0.735. Our panel unit test results support the validity of long-run PPP in the sample countries. This result is in contrast to the previous studies in similar countries which did not accommodate CSD in their estimation. This finding implies that real shocks do not have any permanent effect on the real exchange rate and other things remaining the same, no active policy intervention is warranted for the sustainability of external balance.

Modeling moneyness volatility in measuring exchange rate volatility

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to introduce a model to measure foreign exchange (FX) rate volatility accurately. The FX rate volatility forecasting is a crucial endeavour in financial markets and has gained the attention of researchers and practitioners over the last several decades. The implied volatility (IV) measure is widely believed to be the best measure of exchange rate volatility. Despite its widespread usage, the IV approach suffers from an obvious chicken-egg problem: obtaining an unbiased IV requires the options to be priced correctly and calculating option prices accurately requires an unbiased IV. Design/methodology/approach - The authors contribute to the literature by developing a new model for FX rate volatility – the “moneyness volatility (MV)”. This approach is based on measuring the variability of forward-looking “moneyness” rather than use of options price. To assess volatility forecasting performance of MV against IV, the in-sample and out-of-sample tests are involved using the F-test, Granger-Newbold test and Diebold-Mariano framework. Findings - The MV model outperforms the IV in FX rate volatility forecasting ability in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. The F-test, Granger-Newbold test and Diebold-Mariano test results consistently reveal that MV outperforms IV in estimating as well as forecasting exchange rate volatility for six major currency options. Furthermore, in Mincer-Zarnowitz regressions, MV outperforms IV and time-series models in predicting future volatility. Originality/value - The authors’ pioneering approach in modeling exchange rate volatility has far-reaching implications for academicians, professional traders, and financial risk analysts and managers.

Econometric Modeling for Transaction Cost-Adjusted Put-Call Parity: Evidence from the Currency Options Market

Due to the mispricing of options, no-arbitrage condition put-call parity (PCP) violations lead to inefficiency in the currency options market. Through transaction costs, the effects of these violations are reduced to negligible levels, indicating that PCP is not a sufficient condition for an options market efficiency test. Thus, this study developed a transaction cost-adjusted put-call parity (TC-Adj-PCP) econometric model to examine the efficiency of options markets. The fundamental analysis of the proposed model concludes that transaction costs represent an omitted variable for the PCP model, where the uniqueness of this variable is demonstrated under PCP in the context of options market efficiency. The novelty of the TC-Adj-PCP model resolves controversial transaction costs issues for traders and researchers.

Structural Breaks and Energy Consumption in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Are Random Shocks Transitory or Permanent?: STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE GCC

The impact of random shocks on the energy consumption of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is essentially an empirical question which cannot be determined a priori without properly testing the integration properties of this variable. To this aim, we perform testing the unit root properties of this variable using both traditional unit root tests and the recently developed technique of the Fourier transformation function or simply known as the FADF test developed by Enders and Lee (2012), which not only takes into account for the existence of structural breaks but also that of non‐linearity in the energy consumption series of these countries. The results from the traditional unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of non‐stationarity while that of the Fourier ADF unit root test which is more powerful has strongly rejected the null hypothesis of unit root for all the countries except Bahrain and Qatar. In sum, the results from this test indicate that the energy consumption variables of these countries are characterised by a stationary process and this has important policy implications. This suggests that these random shocks will have only a transitory effect on the energy consumption per capita of these countries.

Measuring Financial Condition Of Urban Local Government: A Study Of Municipalities In Bangladesh

ABSTRACT:Studies on local governmental financial conditions are focused on developing tools for detecting and avoiding potential financial problems. These studies are confined mostly in self-governed local government entities in the western world. This research seeks to measure financial conditions of local government organisations in Bangladesh. Municipalities, one of the two types of urban local government, play an important role in providing a range of services and carrying out certain socioeconomic objectives in Bangladesh. Using financial data from a representative sample of 72 municipalities, this research measures and compares municipal financial conditions of local government municipalities in Bangladesh. A composite index of eleven indicators was developed under four dimensions, viz., short term solvency, budgetary solvency, service level solvency and long term solvency by following the relevant literature on local government financial conditions as well as keeping consistency with data availability. This composite index was applied to measure the financial conditions of the three classes (Class I, II and III) of municipalities in Bangladesh for a period 2007 to 2015. Results obtained indicate that there are differences across these three types of municipalities in their overall financial conditions as well as in their short term, long term and service level solvencies. The index measure explains the financial and operational strengths and weaknesses of municipalities, a clear understanding of which is necessary for improving their performance on sustainable basis. The result of this research is likely to have implications for devising policies for making municipalities more effective organizations. While, the findings will help municipal management to focus their operations to improve their financial and service performance, policy makers at the central level will find it as a useful tool in devising policies for equitable distribution of resources among municipal organizations.

Business cycle asymmetries and nonlinearity in UAE macroeconomic time series

This study investigates the dynamic behaviour of macroeconomic time series variables of the United Arab Emirates. We first examined whether there are non-Gaussian characteristics associated with the macroeconomic variables of the United Arab Emirates. Through application of the BDS nonlinearity test, our results indicated that there is a substantial nonlinear dependence in the data set for all the variables. We also assessed the asymmetric behaviour of these variables by exploring whether they exhibit two particular forms of asymmetry, which are deepness and steepness asymmetries. These results have shown that there is no empirical evidence of business cycle asymmetry in all the variables at any conventional level of significance in the sample period. Also, through application of further robust testing, our findings indicate the presence of pro-cyclical asymmetry in some of the variables and at the same time indicate the presence of asymmetries in the volatility.

Sustainability of Malaysian current account balance: Evidence from ardl bounds tests approach

ABSTRACT:Malaysia has been experiencing sustained current account surplus during post-Asian crisis period. Although current account surplus is not as harmful as deficit, it cannot be sustained forever. Moreover, if the surplus is caused by bad reasons, such as, insufficient social insurance, inefficient financial intermediation, then it is reflected in deteriorating external competitiveness through more depreciated real exchange rate. Therefore, examination of current account sustainability is of crucial importance for the long-run health of the economy. Previous studies on Malaysian current account sustainability produce diverse results and leave it as an unsettled issue open to further research. In this backdrop this paper investigates the sustainability of Malaysia’s current account balance for the period 1970 – 2010. This paper employs inter-temporal budget constraint to understand the behavior of exports and imports of Malaysian economy. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is applied to examine the long cointegrating relation between Malaysian exports and imports plus interest on external borrowing. Advantage of employing the ARDL method is that it does not require the variables to be integrated to the first order. This method can be applied to a set of stationary and nonstationary variables. The paper uses annual data over the periods 1970 – 2010. Export, import and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data are in current US dollars. Interest payment on long-term external borrowing in US dollars is used as a proxy for interest on net foreign debt. Estimation results indicate that these two variables are cointegrated, which implies that Malaysia’s current account is sustainable in the long run. Strong sustainability requires the coefficient of cointegrating vector to be one. In addition to ARDL method, coefficient of cointegrating vector is estimated by two other methods, namely, fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS). All three estimations show that the long-run coefficient is greater than one. This indicates that in the long-run export increases more than import plus interest on external borrowing. Therefore, if the excess export earnings in the long run cannot be utilized productively current account surplus may not sustain. It is, therefore, concluded that Malaysian current account is weakly sustainable. This findings call for policy intervention at macro level to make efficient utilization of excess saving to boost economic growth through promoting social insurance, facilitating efficient financial intermediation and encouraging private investment.

Current account sustainability in Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries: Evidence from panel data

ABSTRACT:Countries in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) have diverse economic structures. Some countries are oil exporters, some are oil importers and some countries are very poor, dependent on agriculture. Since current account is an important indicator of an economy’s health, it is of interest to examine if current account balances in MEA region are sustainable. However, empirical research paid scant attention to this issue. No study has been conducted before to examine this issue. The present paper makes an attempt to fill this research gap by employing panel data model over the period from 1995 to 2014 to examine current account sustainability in MEA countries. We follow intertemporal budget constraint approach and examine long-run relationship between export and import plus interest on net foreign debt. As we work with panel data, we pay special attention to cross-section dependence. We use annual data collected from World Development Indicators. All data (exports, imports and interest on long-term external borrowing) are in current US dollar and expressed as percentage of GDP. Interest payment on long-term external borrowing (also in current US dollar) is used as a proxy for interest on net foreign debt. Panel unit root test to cross-section dependence indicate variables are first-difference stationary. We next use panel cointegration and bootstrap critical values under null hypothesis to accommodate cross-section dependence. Panel cointegration result suggests that current account is sustainable. However, panel cointegrating regression estimation indicates that the value of sustainability coefficient is less than 1 (one), which implies that current account is weakly sustainable. As current account is weakly sustainable, it is desirable to make policy intervention at macro level to ensure strong sustainability. This may be achieved by accelerating ongoing trade reforms in MEA countries to boost export earnings and hence ensure the sustainability of external debt in the long run.

Sustainability of current account balance in ASEAN countries: Evidence from a panel error correction model

Sustained current account deficit and surplus are not good for an economy. Before 1997 financial crisis South East Asian countries experienced current account deficit, while after the crisis most of them have current account surplus. This paper is motivated by the absence of research on current account sustainability issues in selected crisis affected countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, within the framework of panel cointegration and error correction methods. The paper employs panel unit root, panel cointegration and panel dynamic OLS (PDOLS) methods to assess current account sustainability. Based on an inter-temporal analytical framework the paper examines co-integrating relationship between export as percentage of GDP (indicated by X) and the sum of import and interest on long-term external borrowing, both as percentage of GDP (indicated by MM). The paper also estimates current account sustainability parameter by PDOLS. Annual data from 1970 to 2013 for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are sourced from World Development Indicator 2012 & 2014. Exports, imports, and GDP data are in current US dollars. The interest payment on long-term external borrowing is used as a proxy for interest on net foreign debt. All variables are expressed as percentage of GDP. Different econometric tests indicate that X and MM are non-stationary at level; however, stationary at first difference. Panel co-integration tests indicate that the variables are co-integrated, which indicates that there is long-run equilibrium relationship between X and MM. Error correction parameter indicates that it takes less than four years to correct short-run disequilibrium. PDOLS estimate shows that the sustainability coefficient is 1 (one).Panel co-integration and PDOLS results together indicate that current accounts in the sample countries are strongly sustainable. This finding is consistent with previous single country study. This finding supports that the current account balance reflects the optimal decisions of the borrowers and lenders; therefore, policy intervention to correct the balance is unwarranted and could reduce welfare. To avoid future crises, policymakers should pay attention to other issues, such as supporting long-term capital flows and liberalizing short-term capital movements.

The Role of Voluntary Corporate Governance Mechanisms on Environmental Risk Disclosure: Australian Evidence

We examine the factors associated with the establishment of an environmental committee at the board level and its impact on the disclosure of environmental risks in an Australian context. Using a sample of Australian Stock Exchange firms disclosing their information to the Carbon Disclosure Project, we document a strong association between the existence of environmental committee and board independence, CEO duality, directors’ share ownership, and institutional shareholding. Firms that belong to environmentally sensitive industries are more likely to have environmental committees. Furthermore, we find that firms with environmental committees are more likely to disclose environmental risk information and this leads to mitigation in information asymmetry between managers and stakeholders.