Arild Wikan

Dynamic consequences of reproductive delay in Leslie matrix models with nonlinear survival probabilities.

The dynamic consequences of reproductive delay in Leslie matrix models with nonlinear survival probabilities p are analyzed. In consideration of two-age classes, proof is presented for a wide range of p functions that, outside the strongly resonant cases, the transfer from stability to instability goes through a supercritical Hopf bifurcation and, moreover, that the nonlinear development has a strong resemblance of three or four cycles, either exact or approximate. In three-age class models, the tendency toward four-periodical dynamics is shown to be even more pronounced, a qualitative finding that gradually disappears as we turn to the higher-dimensional cases. We also prove that for models of any dimension n > 1 theme are regions in parameter space where the equilibrium is unstable at its creation and we demonstrate that the dynamics in this age-class extinguishing case is 2k.n cyclic.

Age or Stage Structure

Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities.

On the Interplay between Cannibalism and Harvest in Stage-Structured Population Models

By use of a nonlinear stage-structured population model the role of cannibalism and the combined role of cannibalism and harvest have been explored. Regarding the model, we prove that in most parts of parameter space it is permanent. We also show that the transfer from stability to nonstationary dynamics always occurs when the unique stable equilibrium undergoes a supercritical Neimark-Sacker (Hopf) bifurcation. Moreover, the dynamic consequences of catch depend not only on which part of the population (immature or mature) is exposed to increased harvest pressure but also on which part of the immature population (newborns, older immature individuals) suffers from cannibalism. Indeed, if only newborns are exposed to cannibalism an enlargement of harvest pressure on the mature part of the population may act in a stabilizing fashion. On the other hand, whenever the whole immature population is exposed to cannibalism there are parts in parameter space where increased harvest on the mature population acts in a destabilizing fashion.

An Analysis of Discrete Stage-Structured Prey and Prey-Predator Population Models

Discrete stage-structured prey and prey-predator models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the models at hand are permanent (i.e., the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and, moreover, that the transfer from stability to nonstationary behaviour always goes through a supercritical Neimark−Sacker bifurcation. The prey model covers species that possess a wide range of different life histories. Predation pressure may both stabilize and destabilize the prey dynamics but the strength of impact is closely related to life history. Indeed, if the prey possesses a precocious semelparous life history and exhibits chaotic oscillations, it is shown that increased predation may stabilize the dynamics and also, in case of large predation pressure, transfer the population to another chaotic regime.

Nonstationary and Chaotic Dynamics in Age-Structured Population Models

The dynamics from nonlinear discrete age-structured population models is under consideration. Focus is on bifurcations, as well as nonstationary and chaotic dynamics. We also explore different mechanisms which may lead to periodic phenomena. Some new results are also presented, in particular from models where both fecundity and survival terms contain nonlinear elements.