Arjan de Koning

Exiopol - Development And Illustrative Analyses Of A Detailed Global Mr Ee Sut/Iot

EXIOPOL (A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input–Output Tools for Policy Analysis) was a European Union (EU)-funded project creating a detailed, global, multiregional environmentally extended Supply and Use table (MR EE SUT) of 43 countries, 129 sectors, 80 resources, and 40 emissions. We sourced primary SUT and input–output tables from Eurostat and non-EU statistical offices. We harmonized and detailed them using auxiliary national accounts data and co-efficient matrices. Imports were allocated to countries of exports using United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database trade shares. Optimization procedures removed imbalances in these detailing and trade linking steps. Environmental extensions were added from various sources. We calculated the EU footprint of final consumption with resulting MR EE SUT. EU policies focus mainly on energy and carbon footprints. We show that the EU land, water, and material footprint abroad is much more relevant, and should be prioritized in the EUs environmental product and trade policies.

Comparison between three different LCIA methods for aquatic ecotoxicity and a product Environmental Risk Assessment – Insights from a Detergent Case Study within OMNIITOX

Background and ObjectiveIn the OMNIITOX project 11 partners have the common objective to improve environmental management tools for the assessment of (eco)toxicological impacts. The detergent case study aims at: i) comparing three Procter &c Gamble laundry detergent forms (Regular Powder-RP, Compact Powder-CP and Compact Liquid-CL) regarding their potential impacts on aquatic ecotoxicity, ii) providing insights into the differences between various Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods with respect to data needs and results and iii) comparing the results from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) with results from an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA).Material and MethodsThe LCIA has been conducted with EDIP97 (chronic aquatic ecotoxicity) [1], USES-LCA (freshwater and marine water aquatic ecotoxicity, sometimes referred to as CML2001) [2, 3] and IMPACT 2002 (covering freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity) [4]. The comparative product ERA is based on the EU Ecolabel approach for detergents [5] and EUSES [6], which is based on the Technical Guidance Document (TGD) of the EU on Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) of chemicals [7]. Apart from the Eco-label approach, all calculations are based on the same set of physico-chemical and toxicological effect data to enable a better comparison of the methodological differences. For the same reason, the system boundaries were kept the same in all cases, focusing on emissions into water at the disposal stage.Results and DiscussionSignificant differences between the LCIA methods with respect to data needs and results were identified. Most LCIA methods for freshwater ecotoxicity and the ERA see the compact and regular powders as similar, followed by compact liquid. IMPACT 2002 (for freshwater) suggests the liquid is equally as good as the compact powder, while the regular powder comes out worse by a factor of 2. USES-LCA for marine water shows a very different picture seeing the compact liquid as the clear winner over the powders, with the regular powder the least favourable option. Even the LCIA methods which result in die same product ranking, e.g. EDIP97 chronic aquatic ecotoxicity and USES-LCA freshwater ecotoxicity, significantly differ in terms of most contributing substances. Whereas, according to IMPACT 2002 and USES-LCA marine water, results are entirely dominated by inorganic substances, the other LCIA methods and the ERA assign a key role to surfactants. Deviating results are mainly due to differences in the fate and exposure modelling and, to a lesser extent, to differences in the toxicological effect calculations. Only IMPACT 2002 calculates the effects based on a mean value approach, whereas all other LCIA methods and the ERA tend to prefer a PNEC-based approach. In a comparative context like LCA the OMNIITOX project has taken the decision for a combined mean and PNEC-based approach, as it better represents the ‘average’ toxicity while still taking into account more sensitive species. However, the main reason for deviating results remains in the calculation of the residence time of emissions in the water compartments.Conclusion and OutlookThe situation that different LCIA methods result in different answers to the question concerning which detergent type is to be preferred regarding the impact category aquatic ecotoxicity is not satisfactory, unless explicit reasons for the differences are identifiable. This can hamper practical decision support, as LCA practitioners usually will not be in a position to choose the ’right’ LCIA method for their specific case. This puts a challenge to the entire OMNIITOX project to develop a method, which finds common ground regarding fate, exposure and effect modelling to overcome the current situa-tion of diverging results and to reflect most realistic conditions.

A protocol for horizontal averaging of unit process data—including estimates for uncertainty

PurposeQuantitative uncertainties are a direct consequence of averaging, a common procedure when building life cycle inventories (LCIs). This averaging can be amongst locations, times, products, scales or production technologies. To date, however, quantified uncertainties at the unit process level have largely been generated using a Numerical Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) approach and often disregard inherent uncertainties (inaccurate measurements) and spread (variability around means).MethodsA decision tree for primary and secondary data at the unit process level was initially created. Around this decision tree, a protocol was developed with the recognition that dispersions can be either results of inherent uncertainty, spread amongst data points or products of unrepresentative data. In order to estimate the characteristics of uncertainties for secondary data, a method for weighting means amongst studies is proposed. As for unrepresentativeness, the origin and adaptation of NUSAP to the field of life cycle assessment are discussed, and recommendations are given.Results and discussionBy using the proposed protocol, cross-referencing of outdated data is avoided, and user influence on results is reduced. In the meantime, more accurate estimates can be made for horizontally averaged data with accompanying spread and inherent uncertainties, as these deviations often contribute substantially towards the overall dispersion.ConclusionsIn this article, we highlight the importance of including inherent uncertainties and spread alongside the NUSAP pedigree. As uncertainty data often are missing in LCI literature, we here describe a method for evaluating these by taking several reported values into account. While this protocol presents a practical way towards estimating overall dispersion, better reporting in literature is promoted in order to determine real uncertainty parameters.

Environmental Impacts of Diet Changes in the EU

The report is a scientific contribution to the European Commissions Integrated Product Policy framework, which seeks to minimise the environmental degradation caused throughout the life cycle of products. This report first presents an overview of the environmental impact cause by current dietary habits in EU27. It then develops three alternative diets on the basis of health recommendations from EFSA, WHO and other organisations, and calculates the changes in environmental impacts achievable through a shift towards these diets. Finally the report analyses policy measures which stimulate the uptake of healthy diets by consumers. The report shows that current dietary habits in Europe are responsible for 27% of all environmental impacts in Europe. A shift to healthier diets shows that the contribution to overall environmental impacts in Europe can be reduced to 25% in case of reduced consumption of red meat. The contribution reduces to just 26% if indirect effects such as household budget re-distribution and price and substitution effects in the agricultural sector are taken into account. Because food and nutrition are strongly rooted in traditions and habits, policy measures aiming at stimulating a change towards healthy diets need to include a combination of different instruments, ranging from consumer awareness raising to public procurement activities.

EXIOBASE 3: Developing a Time Series of Detailed Environmentally Extended Multi‐Regional Input‐Output Tables

Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) with a high sectorial detail matched with multiple social and environmental satellite accounts. In this paper, we present the latest developments realized with EXIOBASE 3-a time series of EE MRIO tables ranging from 1995 to 2011 for 44 countries (28 EU member plus 16 major economies) and five rest of the world regions. EXIOBASE 3 builds upon the previous versions of EXIOBASE by using rectangular supply-use tables (SUTs) in a 163 industry by 200 products classification as the main building locks. In order to capture structural changes, economic developments, as reported by national statistical agencies, were imposed on the available, disaggregated SUTs from EXIOBASE 2. These initial estimates were further refined by incorporating detailed data on energy, agricultural production, resource extraction, and bilateral trade. EXIOBASE 3 inherits the high level of environmental stressor detail from its precursor, with further improvement in the level of detail for resource xtraction. To account for the expansion of the European Union (EU), EXIOBASE 3 was developed with the full EU28 country set (including the new member state Croatia). EXIOBASE 3 provides a unique tool for analyzing the dynamics of environmental pressures of economic activities over time.

Scenarios for a 2 °C world: a trade-linked input–output model with high sector detail

In this study a scenario model is used to examine if foreseen technological developments are capable of reducing CO2 emissions in 2050 to a level consistent with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreements, which aim at maximizing the temperature rise to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. The model is based on a detailed global environmentally extended supply–use table (EE SUT) for the year 2000, called EXIOBASE. This global EE SUT allows calculating how the final demand in each region drives activities in production sectors, and hence related CO2 emissions, in each region. Using this SUT framework, three scenarios have been constructed for the year 2050. The first is a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), which takes into account population, economic growth, and efficiency improvements. The second is a techno-scenario (TS), adding feasible and probable climate mitigation technologies to the BAU scenario. The third is the towards-2-degrees scenario (2DS), with a demand shift or growth reduction scenario added to the TS to create a 2 °C scenario. The emission results of the three scenarios are roughly in line with outcomes of typical scenarios from integrated assessment models. Our approach indicates that the 2 °C target seems difficult to reach with advanced CO2 emission reduction technologies alone. Policy relevance The overall outlook in this scenario study is not optimistic. We show that CO2 emissions from steel and cement production and air and sea transport will become dominant in 2050. They are difficult to reduce further. Using biofuels in air and sea transport will probably be problematic due to the fact that agricultural production largely will be needed to feed a rising global population and biofuel use for electricity production grows substantially in 2050. It seems that a more pervasive pressure towards emission reduction is required, also influencing the basic fabric of society in terms of types and volumes of energy use, materials use, and transport. Reducing envisaged growth levels, hence reducing global gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, might be one final contribution needed for moving to the 2 °C target, but is not on political agendas now.

Evaluating the environmental impacts of dietary recommendations

Significance Nationally recommended diets are a prominent method for informing the public on dietary choices. Although dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes, these diets make almost no reference to environmental impacts. Our study provides a comparison between the environmental impacts of average dietary intakes and a nation-specific recommended diet across 37 middle- and high-income nations. We find that following a nationally recommended diet in high-income nations results in a reduction in greenhouse gases, eutrophication, and land use. In upper-middle–income nations, we find a smaller reduction in impacts, and in lower-middle–income nations we find a substantial increase. The net result from large-scale adoption of nationally recommended diets for countries studied here results in a reduction in environmental impacts. Dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes. Information on diets come from many sources, with nationally recommended diets (NRDs) by governmental or similar advisory bodies the most authoritative. Little or no attention is placed on the environmental impacts within NRDs. Here we quantify the impact of nation-specific NRDs, compared with an average diet in 37 nations, representing 64% of global population. We focus on greenhouse gases (GHGs), eutrophication, and land use because these have impacts reaching or exceeding planetary boundaries. We show that compared with average diets, NRDs in high-income nations are associated with reductions in GHG, eutrophication, and land use from 13.0 to 24.8%, 9.8 to 21.3%, and 5.7 to 17.6%, respectively. In upper-middle–income nations, NRDs are associated with slight decrease in impacts of 0.8–12.2%, 7.7–19.4%, and 7.2–18.6%. In poorer middle-income nations, impacts increase by 12.4–17.0%, 24.5–31.9%, and 8.8–14.8%. The reduced environmental impact in high-income countries is driven by reductions in calories (∼54% of effect) and a change in composition (∼46%). The increased environmental impacts of NRDs in low- and middle-income nations are associated with increased intake in animal products. Uniform adoption of NRDs across these nations would result in reductions of 0.19–0.53 Gt CO2 eq⋅a−1, 4.32–10.6 Gt PO43− eq⋅a−1, and 1.5–2.8 million km2, while providing the health cobenefits of adopting an NRD. As a small number of dietary guidelines are beginning to incorporate more general environmental concerns, we anticipate that this work will provide a standardized baseline for future work to optimize recommended diets further.

Uncertainty of water type–specific hazardous copper concentrations derived with biotic ligand models

One of the aims of the Water Framework Directive is to derive Europe-wide environmental quality standards that are scientifically based and protective of surface waters. Accounting for water type-specific bioavailability corrections presents challenges and opportunities for metals research. In this study, we present generally applicable approaches for tiered risk assessment of chemicals for prospective use. The objective of the present study was to derive water type-specific dissolved copper criteria for Dutch surface waters. The intent was to show the utility of accounting for bioavailability by using biotic ligand models (BLMs) and two different ways of extrapolating these BLMs in order to obtain reliable bioavailability-corrected species sensitivity distributions. Water type-specific criteria estimations were generated for six different water quality conditions. Average hazard concentrations as calculated using the BLMs and the two alternate normalization scenarios varied significantly among the different water types, from 5.6 to 73.6 microg/L. Water types defined as large rivers, sandy springs, and acid ponds were most sensitive for Cu. Streams and brooks had the highest hazard concentrations. The two different options examined for toxicity data normalization did impact the calculated hazard concentrations for each water type.

Maximizing affluence within the planetary boundaries

PurposeOrdinary product LCA studies focus on measuring or minimizing environmental impact, but do not address if the product fits in a sustainable consumption pattern. This paper proposes a setup in which the planetary boundaries define the maximum impact, and the minimum requirements for a reasonable consumption level specify a lower impact level. Thus, a “safe operating space” remains.MethodsWe use an IO table for EU-27 and the consumption pattern of the Bulgarian population extrapolated to the EU level as driving climate impact. The EU’s policy targets are used as a planetary boundary for climate change.ResultsThe 2020 target is shown to be able to accommodate the Bulgarian-style consumption, with room for a much higher GDP. The 2050 target, however, is too narrow, and a slightly smaller consumption pattern is needed to reach the target.ConclusionsAlthough the approach is highly simplified and neglects many developments, the idea of using IO-tables and minimum consumption levels to backcast directions to be taken is expected to help policymakers. We acknowledge some important limitations of our approach, but accept these in the context of exploring future scenarios and how to get there, instead of predicting the future.

Towards Robust, Authoritative Assessments of Environmental Impacts Embodied in Trade: Current State and Recommendations

Global multiregional input-output databases (GMRIOs) became the standard tool for track ing environmental impacts through global supply chains. To date, several GMRIOs are available, but the numerical results differ. This paper considers how GMRIOs can be made more robust and authoritative. We show that GMRIOs need detail in environmentally relevant sectors. On the basis of a review of earlier work, we conclude that the highest uncertainty in footprint analyses is caused by the environmental data used in a GMRIO, followed by the size of country measured in gross domestic product (GDP) as fraction of the global total, the structure of the national table, and only at the end the structure of trade. We suggest the following to enhance robustness of results. In the short term, we recommend using the Single country National Accounts Consistent footprint approach, that uses official data for extensions and the national table for the country in question, combined with embodiments in imports calculated using a GMRIO. In a time period of 2 to 3 years, we propose work on harmonized environmental data for water, carbon, materials, and land, and use the aggregated Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Inter-Country Input-Output GMRIO as default in combination with detailing procedures developed in, for example, the EXIOBASE and Eora projects. In the long term, solutions should be coordinated by the international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) Statistical Division, OECD, and Eurostat. This could ensure that when input-output tables and trade data of individual countries are combined, that the global totals are consistent and that bilateral trade asymmetries are resolved.