Arlene Laing

Mesoscale Convective Complexes in Africa

Abstract Digitized full-disk infrared satellite imagery from the European geostationary satellite (Meteosat) for 1986 and 1987 was used to construct a climatology of mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) in Africa One hundred ninety-five systems formed over Africa and its near vicinity during the two-year study period. From this database, characteristics of African MCCs were calculated. The results indicate that these MCCs display many of the same characteristics as those found in the Americas, the Indian subcontinent, and the western Pacific region. The systems are predominantly nocturnal and tend to form over or in the immediate vicinity of land. Much of the activity occurs over the African Sahel. while comparatively little occurs over the equatorial rain forest. The average lifetime of African MCCs is about 11.5 h, whereas systems in the western Pacific region and the Americas last about 11 and 10 h, respectively. The size distributions of the African systems are also extremely similar to those of the ...

Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009

Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate–conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (∼100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate–conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods.

The Large-Scale Environments of the Global Populations of Mesoscale Convective Complexes

Abstract The mean genesis environment was constructed for each of five mesoscale convective complex (MCC) population centers around the world: Africa, Australia, China, South America, and the United States. It is found that the environments are very similar and exhibit many of the same dynamic and thermodynamic structures that are present with systems in the United States. In particular, MCCs initiate within prominent baroclinic zones characterized by locally large values of lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). Typically, a low-level jet of air with low static stability, high equivalent potential temperature, oriented nearly perpendicular to the baroclinic zone, intrudes into the genesis region and is forced to ascend over a relatively shallow, surface-based layer of relatively cool air. Pronounced warm advection accompanied by strong lower-tropospheric veering overlays the surface-based cool layer. A local maximum in absolute humidity and a local minimu...

AN EARTH-SYSTEM PREDICTION INITIATIVE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.

Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Complexes to Rainfall in Sahelian Africa: Estimates from Geostationary Infrared and Passive Microwave Data

Abstract The contribution of mesoscale convective complexes to the July–September rainfall in Sahelian Africa is assessed using passive microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave Image and infrared (IR) data from the European Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (Meteosat). A simple precipitation-estimation procedure, which takes advantage of the good time resolution of the IR and the strong relationship between the microwave radiance and rainfall, is developed and applied. The microwave technique uses the 37- and 86-GHz brightness temperatures to define the rain areas and the 86-GHz ice scattering signal to determine the rainfall intensity. The IR cloud shield areas are defined by the 219 K threshold. Regression analyses are used to relate the microwave-derived precipitation characteristics of the system and the IR data closest to the time of the SSM/I observation. These relationships are used to compute the precipitation characteristics of the total set of systems and to determine their monthly ...

Cycles and Propagation of Deep Convection over Equatorial Africa

AbstractLong-term statistics of organized convection are vital to improved understanding of the hydrologic cycle at various scales. Satellite observations are used to understand the timing, duration, and frequency of deep convection in equatorial Africa, a region with some of the most intense thunderstorms. Yet little has been published about the propagation characteristics of mesoscale convection in that region. Diurnal, subseasonal, and seasonal cycles of cold cloud (proxy for convective precipitation) are examined on a continental scale. Organized deep convection consists of coherent structures that are characteristic of systems propagating under a broad range of atmospheric conditions. Convection is triggered by heating of elevated terrain, sea/land breezes, and lake breezes. Coherent episodes of convection result from regeneration of convection through multiple diurnal cycles while propagating westward. They have an average 17.6-h duration and 673-km span; most have zonal phase speeds of 8–16 m s−1.P...

Subnational violent conflict forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–65, using climate-sensitive models

How will local violent conflict patterns in sub-Saharan Africa evolve until the middle of the 21st century? Africa is recognized as a particularly vulnerable continent to environmental and climate change since a large portion of its population is poor and reliant on rain-fed agriculture. We use a climate-sensitive approach to model sub-Saharan African violence in the past (geolocated to the nearest settlements) and then forecast future violence using sociopolitical factors such as population size and political rights (governance), coupled with temperature anomalies. Our baseline model is calibrated using 1° gridded monthly data from 1980 to 2012 at a finer spatio-temporal resolution than existing conflict forecasts. We present multiple forecasts of violence under alternative climate change scenarios (optimistic and current global trajectories), of political rights scenarios (improvement and decline), and population projections (low and high fertility). We evaluate alternate shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) by plotting violence forecasts over time and by detailed mapping of recent and future levels of violence by decade. The forecasts indicate that a growing population and rising temperatures will lead to higher levels of violence in sub-Saharan Africa if political rights do not improve. If political rights continue to improve at the same rate as observed over the last three decades, there is reason for optimism that overall levels of violence will hold steady or even decline in Africa, in spite of projected population increases and rising temperatures.

The Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity along the Gulf Coast. Part I: Lightning Climatology

Abstract Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes from the National Lightning Detection Network are analyzed to determine if the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle influences lighting activity along the Gulf Coast region. First, an updated climatology of lightning was developed for the region. Flash density maps are constructed from an 8-yr dataset (1995–2002) and compared with past lightning climatologies. Second, lightning variability is compared with the phases of ENSO. Winter lightning distributions are compared with one published study of ENSO and lightning days in the Southeast. Flash density patterns are, overall, consistent with past U.S. lightning climatology. However, the peak flash density for the annual mean was less than observed in previous climatologies, which could be due to the disproportionately large percentage of cool ENSO periods compared to previous lightning climatologies. The highest annual lightning counts were observed in 1997, which consisted of mostly warm ENSO seasons; th...

Moisture Variability and Multiscale Interactions during Spring in West Africa

AbstractThe West African monsoon (WAM) is a vital source of rainfall for the African Sahel. In addition to the agricultural benefit of its rains, it benefits public health because bacterial meningitis outbreaks end with the monsoon onset. Outbreaks occur between December and May, a period of low humidity. Knowledge of the onset of high humidity could aid in predicting where the outbreaks will cease. Therefore, this study investigates the variability of atmospheric moisture during the spring over West Africa, characterizing the sources of moisture, as well as circulation patterns and relative influences of tropical and midlatitude systems. A conceptual model of the evolution of the premonsoon period is presented.The meridional and temporal variability of surface moisture during the spring is modulated by multiscale interactions, as illustrated for the period from mid-April to early May 2009. As westward-propagating, synoptic disturbances move across West Africa, a corresponding peak occurs in the surface r...

Numerical Simulation of Episodes of Organized Convection in Tropical Northern Africa

AbstractA large-domain convection-permitting numerical model is used to simulate episodes of deep convection, which are generated during the day over the Ethiopian Highlands and then propagate westward over the eastern and central Sahel region (5°–20°N) of northern Africa. The simulation comprises 12.5 days within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) field campaign in 2006. During this period, long-lived precipitation episodes that survived beyond a single diurnal cycle occurred in the lee of the Ethiopian Highlands only every 2–3 days in both the simulation and observations. This contrasts with some other latitudinal corridors in the lee of major topography, such as the central United States, where long-lived heavy precipitation episodes frequently occur on successive nights.The intermittency of long-lived events for the current case occurs despite regular daily triggering of convection along the upstream orography, and is linked to strong lower-tropospheric stabilization and reduction o...