Arnaud Mehl

The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies

This paper tests whether the slope of the yield curve in emerging economies predicts inflation and growth. It also investigates whether the USA and euro area curves help to predict. It finds that the yield curve in emerging economies contains information for future inflation and growth, with differences across countries being seemingly linked to market liquidity. The US and euro area yield curves are also found to contain information for future inflation and growth in emerging economies. In particular, for those economies with exchange rates pegged to the US dollar, the US yield curve is often a better predictor than the domestic curves and causes their movements. This suggests that monetary policy changes in the USA are drivers of international financial linkages through base interest pass-through and the low end of the yield curve.

Uncovered Interest Parity at Long Horizons: Evidence on Emerging Economies

This paper estimates uncovered interest parity (UIP) at long horizons using bilateral US dollar rates vis-a-vis mature economy and emerging market currencies. The paper finds support in favor of UIP for dollar rates vis-a-vis major mature economy currencies, but far less against emerging market currencies. There are also signs that political risk and the exchange risk premium help explain the empirical failure of UIP for these latter currencies. This suggests that whether UIP holds depends more on the currency than on the horizon.

The Financial Sector and Economic Development: Evidence from Southeast Europe

The turn of the century witnessed a significant renewal of interest in Southeast Europe.2 The international community, notably the European Union (EU), took steps to bring lasting peace and stability to the region under the auspices of the Stability Pact and the Stabilisation and Association Process. These steps have coincided with considerable progress in the countries of Southeast Europe. All of them are now democracies and are forging ahead with political, economic and administrative reforms. International investors have started to identify the oppor-tunities brought about by these changes. Nevertheless, the region has still a very long road ahead before it reaches EU standards of living and economic development. To address this challenge, it is essential to design relevant economic policies and to ensure the appropriate involvement of the private sector. In both respects, the potential contribution of the financial system to economic growth is of particular relevance.

On the Global Financial Market Integration ‘Swoosh’ and the Trilemma

We propose a simple measure of de facto financial market integration based on a factor model of monthly equity returns, which can be computed back to the first era of financial globalization for 17 countries. Global financial market integration follows a “swoosh�? shape – i.e. high pre-1913, still higher post-1990, low in the interwar period – rather than the other shapes hypothesized in earlier literature. We find no evidence of financial globalization reversing since the Great Recession as claimed in other recent studies. De jure capital account openness and global growth uncertainty are the two main determinants of long-run global financial market integration. We use our measure to revisit the debate on the trilemma between financial openness, the exchange rate regime, and monetary policy autonomy, and on whether the trilemma has recently morphed into a dilemma due to global financial cycles. We find evidence consistent with the trilemma and inconsistent with the dilemma hypothesis, both throughout history and for the recent decades; non-US central banks still exert more control over domestic interest rates when exchange rates are flexible in economies open to global finance.

Network Effects, Homogeneous Goods and International Currency Choice: New Evidence on Oil Markets from an Older Era

Conventional wisdom has it that network effects are strong in markets for homogeneous goods, leading to the dominance of one settlement currency in such markets. The alleged dominance of the dollar in global oil markets is said to epitomize this phenomenon. We question this presumption with evidence for earlier periods showing that several national currencies have simultaneously played substantial roles in global oil markets. European oil import payments before and after World War II were split between the dollar and non-dollar currencies, mainly sterling. Differences in use of the dollar across countries were associated with trade linkages with the United States and the size of the importing country. That several national currencies could simultaneously play a role in international oil settlements suggests that a shift from the current dollar-based system toward a multi-polar system in the period ahead is not impossible. JEL Classification: F30, N20

Mutual Assistance between Federal Reserve Banks: 1913–1960 as Prolegomena to the TARGET2 Debate

This article reconstructs the history of mutual assistance among Federal Reserve Banks. We present data on accommodation operations through which Reserve Banks mutualized gold reserves in emergency situations between 1913 and 1960. Reserve sharing was important in response to liquidity crises and bank runs. Such cooperation was essential for the cohesion of the U.S. monetary union. But fortunes could change, with emergency recipients of gold becoming providers. Because imbalances did not endlessly grow, instead narrowing when region-specific shocks subsided, mutual assistance created only limited tensions. These findings speak to the current debate over TARGET2 balances in Europe.

Thick vs. Thin-Skinned : Technology, News, and Financial Market Reaction

We study the impact of technology on the reaction of financial markets to information, focusing on the foreign exchange market. We contrast the “thin-skinned” view that technological improvements cause markets to react more to new information with the “thick-skinned” view that they react less. We pinpoint exogenous technological changes using the timing of the connection of countries via the submarine fiber-optic cables used for electronic trading. Cable connections dampen the response of exchange rates to macroeconomic news, consistent with the “thick-skinned” hypothesis. This is in line with the view that technology eases access to information and reduces trend-following behavior. According to our estimates, cable connections reduce the reaction of exchange rates to U.S. monetary policy news by 50 to 80 percent.