Arne Bomblies

Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

[1] We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semiarid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations that lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a highresolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic-stage and adult-stage components. Through a dependence of aquatic-stage mosquito development and adult emergence on pool persistence, we model small-scale hydrology as a dominant control of mosquito abundance. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. A 16% increase in rainfall between the two years was accompanied by a 132% increase in mosquito abundance between 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual timescales and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments of the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Efficacy of local neem extracts for sustainable malaria vector control in an African village

BackgroundLarval control of malaria vectors has been historically successful in reducing malaria transmission, but largely fell out of favour with the introduction of synthetic insecticides and bed nets. However, an integrated approach to malaria control, including larval control methods, continues to be the best chance for success, in view of insecticide resistance, the behavioural adaptation of the vectors to changing environments and the difficulties of reaching the poorest populations most at risk,. Laboratory studies investigating the effects of neem seed (Azadirachta indica) extracts on Anopheles larvae have shown high rates of larval mortality and reductions in adult longevity, as well as low potential for resistance development.MethodsThis paper describes a method whereby seeds of the neem tree can be used to reduce adult Anopheles gambiae s.l. abundance in a way that is low cost and can be implemented by residents of rural villages in western Niger. The study was conducted in Banizoumbou village, western Niger. Neem seeds were collected from around the village. Dried seeds were ground into a coarse powder, which was then sprinkled onto known Anopheles larvae breeding habitats twice weekly during the rainy season 2007. Adult mosquitoes were captured on a weekly basis in the village and captures compared to those from 2005 and 2006 over the same period. Adult mosquitoes were also captured in a nearby village, Zindarou, as a control data set and compared to those from Banizoumbou.ResultsIt was found that twice-weekly applications of the powder to known breeding habitats of Anopheles larvae in 2007 resulted in 49% fewer adult female Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes in Banizoumbou, compared with previous captures under similar environmental conditions and with similar habitat characteristics in 2005 and 2006. The productivity of the system in 2007 was found to be suppressed compared to the mean behaviour of 2005 and 2006 in Banizoumbou, whereas no change was found in Zindarou.ConclusionWith a high abundance of neem plants in many villages in this area, the results of this study suggest that larval control using neem seed powder offers a sustainable additional tool for malaria vector control in the Sahel region of Niger.

Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States

We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region-wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7 mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk.

Risk Factors Associated with Clinical Malaria Episodes in Bangladesh: A Longitudinal Study

Malaria is endemic to Bangladesh. In this longitudinal study, we used hydrologic, topographic, and socioeconomic risk factors to explain single and multiple malaria infections at individual and household levels. Malaria incidence was determined for 1,634 households in 54 villages in 2009 and 2010. During the entire study period 21.8% of households accounted for all (n = 497) malaria cases detected; 15.4% of households had 1 case and 6.4% had ≥ 2 cases. The greatest risk factors for malaria infection were low bed net ratio per household, house construction materials (wall), and high density of houses. Hydrologic and topographic factors were not significantly associated with malaria risk. This study identifies stable malaria hotspots and risk factors that should be considered for cost-effective targeting of malaria interventions that may contribute to potential elimination of malaria in Bangladesh.

Hydrologic modeling to screen potential environmental management methods for malaria vector control in Niger

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Oceans and Human Health Program

Impacts of Projected Climate Change over the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont

The Lake Champlain basin is a critical ecological and socioeconomic resource of the northeastern United States and southern Quebec, Canada. While general circulation models (GCMs) provide an overview of climate change in the region, they lack the spatial and temporal resolution necessary to fully anticipate the effects of rising global temperatures associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Observed trends in precipitation and temperature were assessed across the Lake Champlain basin to bridge the gap between global climate change and local impacts. Future shifts in precipitation and temperature were evaluated as well as derived indices, including maple syrup production, days above 32.28C (908F), and snowfall, relevant to managing the natural and human environments in the region. Four statistically downscaled, biascorrected GCM simulations were evaluated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to sample the uncertainty in future climate simulations. Precipitation is projected to increase by between 9.1 and 12.8mmyr 21 decade 21 during the twenty-first century while daily temperatures are projected to increase between 0.438 and 0.498C decade 21 . Annual snowfall at six major ski resorts in the region is projected to decrease between 46.9% and 52.4% by the late twenty-first century. In the month of July, the number of days above 32.28C in Burlington, Vermont, is projected to increase by over 10 days during the twenty-first century.

Agent-based modeling of malaria vectors: the importance of spatial simulation

BackgroundThe modeling of malaria vector mosquito populations yields great insight into drivers of malaria transmission at the village scale. Simulation of individual mosquitoes as “agents” in a distributed, dynamic model domain may be greatly beneficial for simulation of spatial relationships of vectors and hosts.MethodsIn this study, an agent-based model is used to simulate the life cycle and movement of individual malaria vector mosquitoes in a Niger Sahel village, with individual simulated mosquitoes interacting with their physical environment as well as humans. Various processes that are known to be epidemiologically important, such as the dependence of parity on flight distance between developmental habitat and blood meal hosts and therefore spatial relationships of pools and houses, are readily simulated using this modeling paradigm. Impacts of perturbations can be evaluated on the basis of vectorial capacity, because the interactions between individuals that make up the population- scale metric vectorial capacity can be easily tracked for simulated mosquitoes and human blood meal hosts, without the need to estimate vectorial capacity parameters.ResultsAs expected, model results show pronounced impacts of pool source reduction from larvicide application and draining, but with varying degrees of impact depending on the spatial relationship between pools and human habitation. Results highlight the importance of spatially-explicit simulation that can model individuals such as in an agent-based model.ConclusionsThe impacts of perturbations on village scale malaria transmission depend on spatial locations of individual mosquitoes, as well as the tracking of relevant life cycle events and characteristics of individual mosquitoes. This study demonstrates advantages of using an agent-based approach for village-scale mosquito simulation to address questions in which spatial relationships are known to be important.

Linking environmental variability to village-scale malaria transmission using a simple immunity model

BackgroundIndividuals continuously exposed to malaria gradually acquire immunity that protects from severe disease and high levels of parasitization. Acquired immunity has been incorporated into numerous models of malaria transmission of varying levels of complexity (e.g. Bull World Health Organ 50:347, 1974; Am J Trop Med Hyg 75:19, 2006; Math Biosci 90:385–396, 1988). Most such models require prescribing inputs of mosquito biting rates or other entomological or epidemiological information. Here, we present a model with a novel structure that uses environmental controls of mosquito population dynamics to simulate the mosquito biting rates, malaria prevalence as well as variability in protective immunity of the population.MethodsA simple model of acquired immunity to malaria is presented and tested within the framework of the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The combined model uses environmental data including rainfall, temperature, and topography to simulate malaria prevalence and level of acquired immunity in the human population. The model is used to demonstrate the effect of acquired immunity on malaria prevalence in two Niger villages that are hydrologically and entomologically very different. Simulations are conducted for the year 2006 and compared to malaria prevalence observations collected from the two villages.ResultsBlood smear samples from children show no clear difference in malaria prevalence between the two villages despite pronounced differences in observed mosquito abundance. The similarity in prevalence is attributed to the moderating effect of acquired immunity, which depends on prior exposure to the parasite through infectious bites - and thus the hydrologically determined mosquito abundance. Modelling the level of acquired immunity can affect village vulnerability to climatic anomalies.ConclusionsThe model presented has a novel structure constituting a mechanistic link between spatial and temporal environmental variability and village-scale malaria transmission. Incorporating acquired immunity into the model has allowed simulation of prevalence in the two villages, and isolation of the effects of acquired immunity in dampening the difference in prevalence between the two villages. Without these effects, the difference in prevalence between the two villages would have been significantly larger in response to the large differences in mosquito populations and the associated biting rates.

Coupled impacts of climate and land use change across a river–lake continuum: insights from an integrated assessment model of Lake Champlain’s Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and highervariability temperature regimes to theNortheasternUnited States. The interactive effects of GCCwith anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrientfluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated bywarmerwater temperatures due toGCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCCon the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloomduration and severity through 2040 in transnational Lake Champlain’sMissisquoi Bay. Temperature and precipitation inputs were statistically downscaled from four global circulation models (GCMs) for three Representative Concentration Pathways. An agent-basedmodel was used to generate four LULCC scenarios. Combined climate and LULCC scenarios drove a distributed hydrologicalmodel to estimate river discharge and nutrient input to the lake. Lake nutrient dynamics were simulatedwith a 3Dhydrodynamic-biogeochemicalmodel.We find acceleratedGCC could drastically limit landmanagement options tomaintainwater quality, but the nature and severity of this impact varies dramatically byGCMandGCC scenario.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.