Arne Ø. Mooers

The global diversity of birds in space and time

Current global patterns of biodiversity result from processes that operate over both space and time and thus require an integrated macroecological and macroevolutionary perspective. Molecular time trees have advanced our understanding of the tempo and mode of diversification and have identified remarkable adaptive radiations across the tree of life. However, incomplete joint phylogenetic and geographic sampling has limited broad-scale inference. Thus, the relative prevalence of rapid radiations and the importance of their geographic settings in shaping global biodiversity patterns remain unclear. Here we present, analyse and map the first complete dated phylogeny of all 9,993 extant species of birds, a widely studied group showing many unique adaptations. We find that birds have undergone a strong increase in diversification rate from about 50 million years ago to the near present. This acceleration is due to a number of significant rate increases, both within songbirds and within other young and mostly temperate radiations including the waterfowl, gulls and woodpeckers. Importantly, species characterized with very high past diversification rates are interspersed throughout the avian tree and across geographic space. Geographically, the major differences in diversification rates are hemispheric rather than latitudinal, with bird assemblages in Asia, North America and southern South America containing a disproportionate number of species from recent rapid radiations. The contribution of rapidly radiating lineages to both temporal diversification dynamics and spatial distributions of species diversity illustrates the benefits of an inclusive geographical and taxonomical perspective. Overall, whereas constituent clades may exhibit slowdowns, the adaptive zone into which modern birds have diversified since the Cretaceous may still offer opportunities for diversification.

Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

Early bursts of body size and shape evolution are rare in comparative data.

George Gaylord Simpson famously postulated that much of lifes diversity originated as adaptive radiations—more or less simultaneous divergences of numerous lines from a single ancestral adaptive type. However, identifying adaptive radiations has proven difficult due to a lack of broad‐scale comparative datasets. Here, we use phylogenetic comparative data on body size and shape in a diversity of animal clades to test a key model of adaptive radiation, in which initially rapid morphological evolution is followed by relative stasis. We compared the fit of this model to both single selective peak and random walk models. We found little support for the early‐burst model of adaptive radiation, whereas both other models, particularly that of selective peaks, were commonly supported. In addition, we found that the net rate of morphological evolution varied inversely with clade age. The youngest clades appear to evolve most rapidly because long‐term change typically does not attain the amount of divergence predicted from rates measured over short time scales. Across our entire analysis, the dominant pattern was one of constraints shaping evolution continually through time rather than rapid evolution followed by stasis. We suggest that the classical model of adaptive radiation, where morphological evolution is initially rapid and slows through time, may be rare in comparative data.

Inferring Evolutionary Process from Phylogenetic Tree Shape

Inferences about macroevolutionary processes have traditionally depended solely on the fossil record, but such inferences can be strengthened by also considering the shapes of the phylogenetic trees that link extant taxa. The realization that phylogenies reflect macroevolutionary processes has led to a growing literature of theoretical and comparative studies of tree shape. Two aspects of tree shape are particularly important: tree balance and the distribution of branch lenghts. We examine and evaluate recent developments in and connections between these two aspects, and suggest directions for future research. Studies of tree shape promise useful and powerful tests of macroevolutionary hypotheses. With appropriate further research, tree shape may help us detect mass extinctions and adaptive radiations, measure continuos variation in speciation and extinction rates, and associate changes in these rates with ecological or biogeographical causes. The usefulness of tree shape extends well beyond the study of macroevolution. We discuss applications to other areas of biology, including coevolution, phylogenetic inference, population biology, and developmental biology.

Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines

Inadequate funding levels are a major impediment to effective global biodiversity conservation and are likely associated with recent failures to meet United Nations biodiversity targets. Some countries are more severely underfunded than others and therefore represent urgent financial priorities. However, attempts to identify these highly underfunded countries have been hampered for decades by poor and incomplete data on actual spending, coupled with uncertainty and lack of consensus over the relative size of spending gaps. Here, we assemble a global database of annual conservation spending. We then develop a statistical model that explains 86% of variation in conservation expenditures, and use this to identify countries where funding is robustly below expected levels. The 40 most severely underfunded countries contain 32% of all threatened mammalian diversity and include neighbors in some of the world’s most biodiversity-rich areas (Sundaland, Wallacea, and Near Oceania). However, very modest increases in international assistance would achieve a large improvement in the relative adequacy of global conservation finance. Our results could therefore be quickly applied to limit immediate biodiversity losses at relatively little cost.

TESTING HYPOTHESES ABOUT ECOLOGICAL SPECIALIZATION USING PHYLOGENETIC TREES

Abstract It is often assumed that ecological specialization represents an evolutionary “dead‐end” that limits further evolution. Maximum‐likelihood (ML) analyses on phylogenies for 15 groups of phytophagous insects revealed that high transition rates both to and from specialization occurred, but that the mean ratio of rates was significantly biased toward a higher rate to specialization. Here we explore the consequences of the fact that transition rates inferred by ML are affected not only by the distribution, but also by the frequency, of character states. Higher rates to the more common state were inferred in the analyses of Nosil (2002), in similar studies published since 2002, and in a small set of simulations. Thus, the ratio of the rate toward versus away from specialization was strongly, positively correlated with the proportion of specialist species at the tips of the phylogeny and whether transitions away from specialization occur remains unclear. Here we reexamine these data using methods that do not rely on directly comparing transition rates. Maximum‐likelihood analyses show that models with no transitions in one direction (e.g., irreversible evolution as predicted by the “specialist as dead end” framework) are usually strongly rejected, independent of the proportion of specialists at the tips. Ancestral state reconstruction revealed two instances where generalists were unambiguously derived from specialists. Transition rates would need to biased 100‐fold and 5000‐fold toward specialization to reconstruct a history where these shifts from specialization toward generalization do not occur. The general conclusions of Nosil (2002) appear to hold; transitions in either direction likely occur such that specialization does not always limit further evolution. Most generally, inferences regarding character evolution can be strengthened by comparing models of character change and examining ancestor states, rather than only comparing parameter values.

A guide to phylogenetic metrics for conservation, community ecology and macroecology

The use of phylogenies in ecology is increasingly common and has broadened our understanding of biological diversity. Ecological sub‐disciplines, particularly conservation, community ecology and macroecology, all recognize the value of evolutionary relationships but the resulting development of phylogenetic approaches has led to a proliferation of phylogenetic diversity metrics. The use of many metrics across the sub‐disciplines hampers potential meta‐analyses, syntheses, and generalizations of existing results. Further, there is no guide for selecting the appropriate metric for a given question, and different metrics are frequently used to address similar questions. To improve the choice, application, and interpretation of phylo‐diversity metrics, we organize existing metrics by expanding on a unifying framework for phylogenetic information.

Phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks change the loss of evolutionary history during extinctions.

If we are to plan conservation strategies that minimize the loss of evolutionary history through human–caused extinctions, we must understand how this loss is related to phylogenetic patterns in current extinction risks and past speciation rates. Nee & May (1997, Science 278, 692–694) showed that for a randomly evolving clade (i) a single round of random extinction removed relatively little evolutionary history, and (ii) extinction management (choosing which taxa to sacrifice) offered only marginal improvement. However, both speciation rates and extinction risks vary across lineages within real clades. We simulated evolutionary trees with phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks (closely related lineages having similar rates and risks) and then subjected them to several biologically informed models of extinction. Increasing speciation rate variation increases the extinction–management pay–off. When extinction risks vary among lineages but are uncorrelated with speciation rates, extinction removes more history (compared with random trees), but the difference is small. When extinction risks vary and are correlated with speciation rates, history loss can dramatically increase (negative correlation) or decrease (positive correlation) with speciation rate variation. The loss of evolutionary history via human–caused extinctions may therefore be more severe, yet more manageable, than first suggested.

Evolutionary Distinctiveness, Threat Status, and Ecological Oddity in Primates

The EDGE (evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered) conservation program (http://www.edgeofexistence.org) uses a composite measure of threat and phylogenetic isolation to rank species for conservation attention. Using primates as a test case, we examined how species that rank highly with this metric represent the collective from which they are drawn. We considered the ecological and morphological traits, including body mass, diet, terrestriality, and home range size, of all 233 species of primates. Overall, EDGE score and the level of deviance from the mean of 20 different ecological, reproductive, and morphological variables were correlated (mean correlation r =0.14, combined p =1.7 x 10(-14)). Although primates with a high EDGE score had characteristics that made them seem odd, they did not seem to express more ancestral characteristics than expected. Sets of primate species with high EDGE scores will, therefore, collectively capture a broader than expected range of the biology of the clade. If similar patterns hold in other groups, the EDGE metric may be useful for prioritizing biodiversity for conservation.

Evolutionarily distinctive species often capture more phylogenetic diversity than expected

Evolutionary distinctiveness measures of how evolutionarily isolated a species is relative to other members of its clade. Recently, distinctiveness metrics that explicitly incorporate time have been proposed for conservation prioritization. However, we found that such measures differ qualitatively in how well they capture the total amount of evolution (termed phylogenetic diversity, or PD) represented by a set of species. We used simulation and simple graph theory to explore this relationship with reference to phylogenetic tree shape. Overall, the distinctiveness measures capture more PD on more unbalanced trees and on trees with many splits near the present. The rank order of performance was robust across tree shapes, with apportioning measures performing best and node-based measures performing worst. A sample of 50 ultrametric trees from the literature showed the same patterns. Taken together, this suggests that distinctiveness metrics may be a useful addition to other measures of value for conservation prioritization of species. The simplest measure, the age of a species, performed surprisingly well, suggesting that new measures that focus on tree shape near the tips may provide a transparent alternative to more complicated full-tree approaches.