Arnold Lobbrecht

Ensemble Precipitation and Water-Level Forecasts for Anticipatory Water-System Control

Abstract A method is presented for testing weather forecast products for applications in anticipatory water-system control. The applicability of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the ECMWF is tested for flood control in a regional water system in the Netherlands. By performing long-term verification analyses, a full range of probability-threshold-based decision rules to apply anticipatory control actions is evaluated in terms of hits (correct alerts), missed events, and false alarms. The analysis includes forecast horizons from 3 to 9 days for extreme precipitation events and extreme water-level events. The water-level forecasts are prepared by feeding each member of the ECMWF EPS precipitation ensemble into a deterministic water-system control model. The current operational strategy is modeled to forecast when the routine operational control will not be sufficient to prevent high water levels, and therefore anticipatory control actions are needed. The results show that ECMWF EPS precipitation forec...

Framework for Anticipatory Water Management: Testing for Flood Control in the Rijnland Storage Basin

AbstractAnticipatory water management uses weather forecasts and water system simulation models to take operational water management actions before an event occurs. In this paper a framework consisting of the different steps and challenges of developing and evaluating an anticipatory water management strategy is discussed. The framework makes use of recent developments in ensemble weather forecasting and modeling of controlled water systems. In particular, flexible water-system control models enable simulation of a wide range of control strategies in multiyear hindcast analyses. With the increasing number of archives for weather forecasts and water-system-state variables, and the reduction in computational time resulting from increasing processor speed and parallel computing, hindcast verification analysis will become the basis for development and optimization of new operational water management strategies. The framework is successfully applied to a flood control case study in the Netherlands. Archived en...