Arona Diedhiou

African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis: An International Research Project and Field Campaign

Abstract African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) is an international project to improve our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual time scales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on West African nations. Recognizing the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts. This will be achieved and coordinated through the following five international working groups: i) West African monsoon and global climate, ii) water cycle, iii) surface–atmosphere feedbacks, iv) prediction of climate impacts, and v) high-impact weather prediction and predictability. AMMA promotes the international coordination of ongoing activities, basic research, and a...

Seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the Sahelian rainfall at hydrological scales

[1] Sahelian rainfall is characterized both by a strong interannual variability and by periods of long-lasting droughts, such as the years 1970-1997. The controlling factors of this variability have been the subject of a significant amount of research, but most of this research is carried out using low-resolution averages, typically, monthly to seasonal in time and over 5° x 5° grid boxes (or larger) in space. This paper is an attempt at characterizing the Sahelian rainfall regime at finer scales, with the objective of establishing links between the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability. To that end, high space-time resolution data sets are analyzed. One is composed of around three hundred daily rain gauges covering a 1,700,000 km 2 area for the period 1951-1990. The second is a set of full resolution Meteosat images covering the years 1989-1999, allowing for a systematic tracking of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The third data set was produced from an experimental network of recording rain gauges covering 16,000 km 2 in the region of Niamey, Niger, during the years 1990-2000. The analysis of the regional daily rainfall data set tends to revisit the common vision of the seasonal cycle of the Sahelian rainfall. It is shown that the average regime is in fact composed of two subregimes. One is an oceanic regime characterized by a progressive increase of the moist air flow from the ocean into the continent, associated with the seasonal migration of the ITCZ from its southern position in the boreal winter to its northern position in the boreal summer. The second regime is a continental regime in which rain is mostly produced by large convective systems embedded in the easterly circulation. This continental regime sets in abruptly during the second half of June, and 90% of the Sahelian rainfall is then produced by a small number (12% of the total number) of large and organized mesoscale convective systems. The mean event rainfall associated with these systems is larger than the mean event rainfall observed in the oceanic regime. The average proportion of the Sahelian rainfall occurring during the continental regime represents between 75% and 90% of the total annual rainfall. It is thus necessary to study this regime in order to understand the interannual rainfall variability of the region better. It is shown, for instance, that the main factor of interannual variability is the variability of the number of the large convective systems from year to year. It is also shown, using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, that the easterly waves, which are a major synoptic feature of the region, are not systematically associated with rain-efficient convective systems and that further studies are needed to understand the differences between wet and dry waves.

Multi-scale description of a Sahelian synoptic weather system representative of the West African monsoon

A reference case of a Sahelian weather system observed during the Hydrological Atmospheric Pilot Experiment, HAPEX-SAHEL, in August 1992, is described from a seasonal viewpoint as well as from synoptic and convective system viewpoints. It is shown that the case-study is representative of the climatology at all these scales and presents many interacting scales and physical processes. At intraseasonal scale, the monsoon onset is characterized by an abrupt shift of precipitation together with a latitudinal migration of the African easterly jet (AEJ) and convection. At the month and day scales, the convective activity occurs in an apparent zonal break of the tropical easterly jet. The month of August 1992 exhibits intense synoptic activity. The vorticity field is characterized by northerly (dry) and southerly (wet) components located at 850 hPa on each side of the AEJ. Their intraseasonal modulation on a period of 20 to 40 days leads to active and break phases of the synoptic activity. Around 21 August, the 700 hPa vorticity field features the propagation of a typical easterly wave with a westward propagation of a cyclonic circulation followed by an anticyclonic circulation. Convective activity occurs mainly ahead of the 700 hPa vorticity maximum with the formation of a squall line on Air mountains propagating south-westward at 15 m s−1. The convective system propagates about twice as fast as the vortex core, in contrast with the convection in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis which stays in phase with the vorticity. The squall line corresponds to the largest contributor to the systems passing in August 1992 over the HAPEX-SAHEL region; its environmental conditions and its effects on the atmosphere including the surface parameters are presented. Copyright

THE AMMA RADIOSONDE PROGRAM AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF ATMOSPHERIC MONITORING OVER AFRICA

In the face of long-term decline, the AMMA research program has reactivated the radiosonde network over West Africa. The lessons learned in AMMA have significance for the upper-air network throughout the continent.

Rainfall Estimation in the Sahel. Part II: Evaluation of Rain Gauge Networks in the CILSS Countries and Objective Intercomparison of Rainfall Products

Abstract This study investigates the accuracy of various precipitation products for the Sahel. A first set of products is made of three ground-based precipitation estimates elaborated regionally from the gauge data collected by Centre Regional Agrometeorologie–Hydrologie–Meteorologie (AGRHYMET). The second set is made of four global products elaborated by various international data centers. The comparison between these two sets covers the period of 1986–2000. The evaluation of the entire operational network of the Sahelian countries indicates that on average the monthly estimation error for the July–September period is around 12% at a spatial scale of 2.5° × 2.5°. The estimation error increases from south to north and remains below 10% for the area south of 15°N and west of 11°E (representing 42% of the region studied). In the southern Sahel (south of 15°N), the rain gauge density needs to be at least 10 gauges per 2.5° × 2.5° grid cell for a monthly error of less than 10%. In the northern Sahel, this den...

Climatology of observed rainfall in Southeast France at the Regional Climate Model scales

In order to provide convenient data to assess rainfall simulated by Regional Climate Models, a spatial database (hereafter called K-REF) has been designed. This database is used to examine climatological features of rainfall in Southeast France, a study region characterized by two mountain ranges of comparable altitude (the Cévennes and the Alps foothill) on both sides of the Rhône valley. Hourly records from 1993 to 2013 have been interpolated to a

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

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Comparative Study of the West African Continental, Coastal, and Marine Atmospheric Profiles during the Summer of 2006

0.1∘×0.1∘ latitude–longitude regular grid and accumulated over 3-h periods in K-REF. The assessment of K-REF relatively to the SAFRAN daily rainfall reanalysis indicates consistent patterns and magnitudes between the two datasets even though K-REF fields are smoother. A multi-scale analysis of the occurrence and non-zero intensity of rainfall is performed and shows that the maps of the 50th and 95th percentiles of 3- and 24-h rain intensity highlight different patterns. The maxima of the 50th and 95th percentiles are located over plain and mountainous areas respectively. Moreover, the location of these maxima is not the same for the 3- and 24-h intensities. To understand these differences between median and intense rainfall on the one hand and between the 3- and 24-h rainfall on the other hand, we analyze the statistical distributions and the space-time structure of occurrence and intensity of the 3-h rainfall in two classes of days, defined as median and intense. This analysis illustrates the influence of two factors on the triggering and the intensity of rain in the region: the solar cycle and the orography. The orographic forcing appears to be quite different for the two ranges of the domain and is much more pronounced over the Cévennes.