Arslan Razmi

The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: are Developing Countries Different?

Recent research has found a positive relationship between real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation and economic growth. Different rationales for this association have been offered, but they all imply that the mechanisms involved should be stronger in developing countries. Rodrik (2008) explicitly analyzed and found evidence that the RER–growth relationship is more prevalent in developing countries. We show that his finding is sensitive to the criterion used to divide the sample between developed and developing countries. Using alternative classification criteria and empirical strategies to evaluate the existence of asymmetries between groups of countries, we find that the effect of currency undervaluation on growth is indeed larger and more robust for developing economies. However, the relationship between RER undervaluation and per capita GDP is non-monotonic, and is limited largely to the least developed and richest countries. This discontinuity constitutes a puzzle that calls for closer analysis.

Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?

Abstract This paper tests for a ‘fallacy of composition’ by analysing the demand for exports of the 18 developing countries that are most specialised in manufactures in the markets of the 10 largest industrial countries. Estimated export equations (both time-series and panel data) suggest that most developing countries compete with other developing country exporters rather than with industrialised country producers. A smaller number of countries that export more high-technology products compete with industrialised country producers and also have higher expenditure elasticities for their exports. Thus, the fallacy of composition applies mainly to the larger group of countries exporting mostly low-technology products.

The Contractionary Short-Run Effects of Nominal Devaluation in Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances

Abstract This article extends the model developed by Krugman and Taylor (1978) to take into account interesting features of the evolving structure of global trade. The growing presence of transnational production chains and differential pricing behaviour of exports destined for industrial and developing countries are accommodated. Individual country and panel data pass‐through estimates derived from several econometric approaches are provided to justify the latter extension. The likelihood of contractionary short‐run effects of devaluations is shown to be positively related to: 1) the proportion of a country’s exports destined for other developing countries; and 2) the presence of transnational corporations (TNCs) in either the export or home goods‐producing sector. Unlike the Krugman‐Taylor case, devaluation will generally have a contractionary impact even if: 1) trade is initially balanced; 2) consumption behaviour does not differ between wage and profit earners; and 3) the government sector has a high marginal propensity to consume in the short run. The resulting policy implications underline the need to take into account these increasingly important nuances of international trade while designing exchange rate policies for developing countries.

Exploring the Sustainability of the Chinese Growth Model in Light of Some Key Structural Characteristics

Chinas rapid economic growth and success in poverty reduction over the last three decades have inspired world-wide admiration. This paper analyzes structural developments in the Chinese economy and distributional consequences thereof with the help of simple identities and behavioral specifications. Possible sources of these distributional developments are then analyzed using a tradetheoretic approach. Macro and micro aspects of Chinas investment- and export-led growth strategy are discussed along with the problems that the focused pursuit of such a strategy has raised. We conclude that Chinas growth model, although spectacularly successful in many ways, may have now outlived its utility both on economic and socio-political grounds. The present global economic crisis serves to bolster this conclusion.

Imposing a balance-of-payments constraint on the Kaldorian model of cumulative causation

We combine two strands of post Keynesian growth theory by imposing a balance-of-payments constraint on a Kaldorian cumulative causation model. The effects of external and internal shocks and the degree to which cumulative causation comes into play depends on the exchange rate and capital account regimes. Exports act as the only exogenous drivers of growth only under a regime of fixed exchange rates and when cumulative causation is blocked. Under flexible exchange rates, by contrast, it is internal demand that serves as the only exogenous driver of growth. Moreover, regardless of the type of shock, the presence of cumulative causation does not boost growth, although it may render growth more sustainable.

Latin America after the global crisis: the role of export-led and tradable-led growth regimes

Is the ongoing economic slowdown in industrialized countries likely to impact Latin American growth negatively in the medium- to long-run? This paper considers various transmission channels that work through trade in goods and services, and finds econometric evidence suggesting that shrinking global imbalances may create problems for Latin America. Specifically, using panel data analysis, we find that the trade balance as a proportion of GDP is positively associated with Latin American economic growth over the period 1953–2009. We then develop a simple dynamic model to help explain our main finding through investment and saving behaviour.

Demand regimes and income distribution reconsidered in an open economy portfolio balance framework

ABSTRACT A large body of neo-Kaleckian literature has debated the distributional determinants of demand and growth. One general conclusion has been that open economy considerations weaken the potential for a wage-led growth regime. However, this literature has largely ignored asset portfolio considerations and the stock and flow interactions that result from the feedback from savings to wealth and from wealth to the current account. This study develops a theoretical framework that specifies a fuller system of (instantaneous) flow equilibria embedded in a medium-run framework with stable steady-state stocks of real and financial assets. The balance-of-payments constraint that results ensures that simply raising the wage does not yield a higher stock of real capital. A lower markup may increase the steady-state stock of capital but only through the relative price channel. These results are much stronger than those derived in the existing literature, and more important, emerge regardless of whether the demand regime is wage-led or profit-led in the absence of international trade.

The exchange rate, diversification, and distribution in a modified Ricardian model with a continuum of goods

Several recent empirical and theoretical studies have revived interest in the relationship between the level of the exchange rate and economic development. This paper develops a dynamic model based on the Ricardian framework with a continuum of goods to consider the issue from a somewhat different perspective. While directly suppressing the real wage could also lead to diversification, what makes nominal devaluation a particularly useful tool is that it makes it possible to expand domestic profits while limiting internal distributional conflict and the ensuing negative effects on development.

Accumulation, Structural Change and External Balances in a World with Internationally Traded Environmental Assets

Environmental literature has largely neglected macroeconomic considerations, especially open economy ones. This paper develops a small country framework that seeks to address these issues. Medium- and long-run aspects are explored using standard trade and portfolio balance models, modified to incorporate trade in claims on non-renewable resources (environmental assets). In the medium-run, changes in environmental regulations, saving behavior, and other variables affect the current account, investment, and composition of output. In the long-run, both the sectoral intensity of environment use and the structure of the economy are affected, as are the capital stock and the global distribution of claims on resources. JEL Categories:

Does the demand regime matter over the medium run? Revisiting distributional issues in a portfolio framework under different exchange rate regimes

Is growth in capitalist economies wage-led or profit-led? Empirical studies have found conflicting results for different countries and periods. Possible reasons may include the endogeneity of distributional shares, differences in the monetary policy/exchange rate regimes across countries, and divergence between macro behavior in the short- and medium-runs. I theoretically explore these possibilities using a portfolio balance framework to keep track of asset stocks and wealth effects over time. With fixed exchange rates, the Central Bank’s need to intervene in the asset market via official reserve transactions results in assigning a crucial role to the current account in constraining accumulation and output. The binding nature of this constraint vanishes with flexible exchange rates. Regardless of the exchange rate regime, the most important message that emerges is that, once we impose plausible constraints on dynamic behavior, the demand regime ceases to determine the effect of redistribution on the steady state levels of utilization, profit rates, capital, and wealth.