Arthur A. Mirin

Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earths climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earths climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

Detection and Attribution of Streamflow Timing Changes to Climate Change in the Western United States

Abstract This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow “center” timing (the day in the “water-year” on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States—the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, ...

CAM-SE: A scalable spectral element dynamical core for the Community Atmosphere Model

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5 includes a spectral element dynamical core option from NCAR’s High-Order Method Modeling Environment. It is a continuous Galerkin spectral finite-element method designed for fully unstructured quadrilateral meshes. The current configurations in CAM are based on the cubed-sphere grid. The main motivation for including a spectral element dynamical core is to improve the scalability of CAM by allowing quasi-uniform grids for the sphere that do not require polar filters. In addition, the approach provides other state-of-the-art capabilities such as improved conservation properties. Spectral elements are used for the horizontal discretization, while most other aspects of the dynamical core are a hybrid of well-tested techniques from CAM’s finite volume and global spectral dynamical core options. Here we first give an overview of the spectral element dynamical core as used in CAM. We then give scalability and performance results from CAM running with three different dynamical core options within the Community Earth System Model, using a pre-industrial time-slice configuration. We focus on high-resolution simulations, using 1/4 degree, 1/8 degree, and T341 spectral truncation horizontal grids.

Three-dimensional simulation of a Richtmyer-Meshkov instability with a two-scale initial perturbation

Three-dimensional high-resolution simulations (up to 8 billion zones) have been performed for a Richtmyer–Meshkov instability produced by passing a shock through a contact discontinuity with a two-scale initial perturbation. The setup approximates shock-tube experiments with a membrane pushed through a wire mesh. The simulation produces mixing-layer widths similar to those observed experimentally. Comparison of runs at various resolutions suggests a mixing transition from unstable to turbulent flow as the numerical Reynolds number is increased. At the highest resolutions, the spectrum exhibits a region of power-law decay, in which the spectral flux is approximately constant, suggestive of an inertial range, but with weaker wave number dependence than Kolmogorov scaling, about k−6/5. Analysis of structure functions at the end of the simulation indicates the persistence of structures with velocities largest in the stream-wise direction. Comparison of three-dimensional and two-dimensional runs illustrates th...

Leading Computational Methods on Scalar and Vector HEC Platforms

The last decade has witnessed a rapid proliferation of superscalar cache-based microprocessors to build high-end computing (HEC) platforms, primarily because of their generality, scalability, and cost effectiveness. However, the growing gap between sustained and peak performance for full-scale scientific applications on conventional supercomputers has become a major concern in high performance computing, requiring significantly larger systems and application scalability than implied by peak performance in order to achieve desired performance. The latest generation of custom-built parallel vector systems have the potential to address this issue for numerical algorithms with sufficient regularity in their computational structure. In this work we explore applications drawn from four areas: atmospheric modeling (CAM), magnetic fusion (GTC), plasma physics (LBMHD3D), and material science (PARATEC). We compare performance of the vector-based Cray X1, Earth Simulator, and newly-released NEC SX-8 and Cray X1E, with performance of three leading commodity-based superscalar platforms utilizing the IBM Power3, Intel Itanium2, and AMD Opteron processors. Our work makes several significant contributions: the first reported vector performance results for CAM simulations utilizing a finite-volume dynamical core on a high-resolution atmospheric grid; a new data-decomposition scheme for GTC that (for the first time) enables a breakthrough of the Teraflop barrier; the introduction of a new three-dimensional Lattice Boltzmann magneto-hydrodynamic implementation used to study the onset evolution of plasma turbulence that achieves over 26Tflop/s on 4800 ES promodity-based superscalar platforms utilizing the IBM Power3, Intel Itanium2, and AMD Opteron processors, with modern parallel vector systems: the Cray X1, Earth Simulator (ES), and the NEC SX-8. Additionally, we examine performance of CAM on the recently-released Cray X1E. Our research team was the first international group to conduct a performance evaluation study at the Earth Simulator Center; remote ES access is not available. Our work builds on our previous efforts [16, 17] and makes several significant contributions: the first reported vector performance results for CAM simulations utilizing a finite-volume dynamical core on a high-resolution atmospheric grid; a new datadecomposition scheme for GTC that (for the first time) enables a breakthrough of the Teraflop barrier; the introduction of a new three-dimensional Lattice Boltzmann magneto-hydrodynamic implementation used to study the onset evolution of plasma turbulence that achieves over 26Tflop/s on 4800 ES processors; and the largest PARATEC cell size atomistic simulation to date. Overall, results show that the vector architectures attain unprecedented aggregate performance across our application suite, demonstrating the tremendous potential of modern parallel vector systems.

Collisional loss of electrostatically confined species in a magnetic mirror

The basic problem of particle end-loss in a magnetic mirror field with an electrostatic confining potential is considered. The analytic treatments of Pastukhov and Chernin and Rosenbluth have been generalized to apply to any electrostatically confined species in a multi-species plasma, and the Pastukhov analysis has been extended to apply to arbitrary magnetic-field profiles (instead of square-well). The analytic results are compared with results obtained from one-and two-dimensional Fokker-Planck codes. In particular the scaling with potential, mirror ratio, and effective charge is considered. The closest agreement (within 20%) is between the 2-D Fokker-Planck and generalized Pastukhov results.

Structure and Detectability of Trends in Hydrological Measures over the Western United States

Abstract This study examines the geographic structure of observed trends in key hydrologically relevant variables across the western United States at ⅛° spatial resolution during the period 1950–99. Geographical regions, latitude bands, and elevation classes where these trends are statistically significantly different from trends associated with natural climate variations are identified. Variables analyzed include late-winter and spring temperature, winter-total snowy days as a fraction of winter-total wet days, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) as a fraction of October–March (ONDJFM) precipitation total [precip(ONDJFM)], and seasonal [JFM] accumulated runoff as a fraction of water-year accumulated runoff. Observed changes were compared to natural internal climate variability simulated by an 850-yr control run of the finite volume version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3-FV), statistically downscaled to a ⅛° grid using the method of constructed analogs. Both observed and downscale...

Multicentury Changes to the Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO2 emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO2 reaches 1423 ppmv. In our simulation, the prescribed cumulative emission since pre-industrial period is about 5400 Gt-C by the end of 23rd century. At year 2300, nearly 45 % of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

Computational performance of ultra-high-resolution capability in the Community Earth System Model

With the fourth release of the Community Climate System Model, the ability to perform ultra-high-resolution climate simulations is now possible, enabling eddy-resolving ocean and sea-ice models to be coupled to a finite-volume atmosphere model for a range of atmospheric resolutions. This capability was made possible by enabling the model to use large scale parallelism, which required a significant refactoring of the software infrastructure. We describe the scalability of two ultra-high-resolution coupled configurations on leadership class computing platforms. We demonstrate the ability to utilize over 30,000 processor cores on a Cray XT5 system and over 60,000 cores on an IBM Blue Gene/P system to obtain climatologically relevant simulation rates for these configurations.