Arthur Schatzkin

Overweight, Obesity, and Mortality in a Large Prospective Cohort of Persons 50 to 71 Years Old

BACKGROUND Obesity, defined by a body-mass index (BMI) (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 30.0 or more, is associated with an increased risk of death, but the relation between overweight (a BMI of 25.0 to 29.9) and the risk of death has been questioned. METHODS We prospectively examined BMI in relation to the risk of death from any cause in 527,265 U.S. men and women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort who were 50 to 71 years old at enrollment in 1995-1996. BMI was calculated from self-reported weight and height. Relative risks and 95 percent confidence intervals were adjusted for age, race or ethnic group, level of education, smoking status, physical activity, and alcohol intake. We also conducted alternative analyses to address potential biases related to preexisting chronic disease and smoking status. RESULTS During a maximum follow-up of 10 years through 2005, 61,317 participants (42,173 men and 19,144 women) died. Initial analyses showed an increased risk of death for the highest and lowest categories of BMI among both men and women, in all racial or ethnic groups, and at all ages. When the analysis was restricted to healthy people who had never smoked, the risk of death was associated with both overweight and obesity among men and women. In analyses of BMI during midlife (age of 50 years) among those who had never smoked, the associations became stronger, with the risk of death increasing by 20 to 40 percent among overweight persons and by two to at least three times among obese persons; the risk of death among underweight persons was attenuated. CONCLUSIONS Excess body weight during midlife, including overweight, is associated with an increased risk of death.

Amount of time spent in sedentary behaviors and cause-specific mortality in US adults

BACKGROUND Sedentary behaviors predominate modern life, yet we do not fully understand the adverse effects of these behaviors on mortality after considering the benefits of moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). OBJECTIVE We tested the hypotheses that higher amounts of overall sitting time and television viewing are positively associated with mortality and described the independent and combined effects of these sedentary behaviors and MVPA on mortality. DESIGN In the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, we examined 240,819 adults (aged 50-71 y) who did not report any cancer, cardiovascular disease, or respiratory disease at baseline. Mortality was ascertained over 8.5 y. RESULTS Sedentary behaviors were positively associated with mortality after adjustment for age, sex, education, smoking, diet, race, and MVPA. Participants who reported the most television viewing (≥7 h compared with <1 h/d) were at greater risk of all-cause (HR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.47, 1.76), cardiovascular (HR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.20), and cancer (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.40) mortality after adjustment for MVPA. Overall sitting was associated with all-cause mortality. Even among adults reporting high levels of MVPA (>7 h/wk), high amounts of television viewing (≥7 h/d) remained associated with increased risk of all-cause (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.79) and cardiovascular (HR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.33, 3.00) mortality compared with those reporting the least television viewing (<1 h/d). CONCLUSIONS Time spent in sedentary behaviors was positively associated with mortality, and participation in high levels of MVPA did not fully mitigate health risks associated with prolonged time watching television. Adults should be encouraged to reduce time spent in sedentary behaviors, when possible, and to participate in MVPA at recommended levels. The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015.

Association Between Smoking and Risk of Bladder Cancer Among Men and Women

CONTEXT Previous studies indicate that the population attributable risk (PAR) of bladder cancer for tobacco smoking is 50% to 65% in men and 20% to 30% in women and that current cigarette smoking triples bladder cancer risk relative to never smoking. During the last 30 years, incidence rates have remained stable in the United States in men (123.8 per 100,000 person-years to 142.2 per 100,000 person-years) and women (32.5 per 100,000 person-years to 33.2 per 100,000 person-years); however, changing smoking prevalence and cigarette composition warrant revisiting risk estimates for smoking and bladder cancer. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between tobacco smoking and bladder cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Men (n = 281,394) and women (n = 186,134) of the National Institutes of Health-AARP (NIH-AARP) Diet and Health Study cohort completed a lifestyle questionnaire and were followed up between October 25, 1995, and December 31, 2006. Previous prospective cohort studies of smoking and incident bladder cancer were identified by systematic review and relative risks were estimated from fixed-effects models with heterogeneity assessed by the I(2) statistic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs), PARs, and number needed to harm (NNH). RESULTS During 4,518,941 person-years of follow-up, incident bladder cancer occurred in 3896 men (144.0 per 100,000 person-years) and 627 women (34.5 per 100,000 person-years). Former smokers (119.8 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.03-2.44; NNH, 1250) and current smokers (177.3 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.66-4.50; NNH, 727) had higher risks of bladder cancer than never smokers (39.8 per 100,000 person-years). In contrast, the summary risk estimate for current smoking in 7 previous studies (initiated between 1963 and 1987) was 2.94 (95% CI, 2.45-3.54; I(2) = 0.0%). The PAR for ever smoking in our study was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.45-0.54) in men and 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45-0.59) in women. CONCLUSION Compared with a pooled estimate of US data from cohorts initiated between 1963 and 1987, relative risks for smoking in the more recent NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort were higher, with PARs for women comparable with those for men.

Sudden death: Lessons from subsets in population studies

Sudden coronary death is an important feature of clinical coronary disease, the incidence doubling with each decade of age after age 45 and with women lagging behind men in incidence by 20 years. Fifty percent of the sudden deaths in men and 64% in women occur in persons without prior coronary heart disease, and 18% of coronary attacks in men and 24% in women present as sudden death. More than half of coronary mortality is in the form of sudden death. Persons with overt established coronary heart disease are at 3-fold to 12-fold increased risk depending on age, the risk ratio diminishing with advancing age. When overt coronary disease is established, the major coronary risk factors have little discernible effect on the risk of sudden death. Risk appears related chiefly to the degree of myocardial damage as indicated by electrocardiographic abnormality and evidence of cardiac failure. In subjects free of overt coronary heart disease, the risk of sudden death varies widely in relation to risk factors, including systolic pressure, serum cholesterol, vital capacity, cigarette smoking, relative weight, heart rate and electrocardiographic abnormality. Multivariate combination of these risk factors allows an efficient prediction of sudden death in both sexes. The key to the prevention of sudden death in the general population is to prevent coronary attacks by avoidance or correction of the aforementioned risk factors. No risk factors thus far identified are clearly specific for sudden death.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Meat Intake and Mortality: A Prospective Study of Over Half a Million People

BACKGROUND High intakes of red or processed meat may increase the risk of mortality. Our objective was to determine the relations of red, white, and processed meat intakes to risk for total and cause-specific mortality. METHODS The study population included the National Institutes of Health-AARP (formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons) Diet and Health Study cohort of half a million people aged 50 to 71 years at baseline. Meat intake was estimated from a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) within quintiles of meat intake. The covariates included in the models were age, education, marital status, family history of cancer (yes/no) (cancer mortality only), race, body mass index, 31-level smoking history, physical activity, energy intake, alcohol intake, vitamin supplement use, fruit consumption, vegetable consumption, and menopausal hormone therapy among women. Main outcome measures included total mortality and deaths due to cancer, cardiovascular disease, injuries and sudden deaths, and all other causes. RESULTS There were 47 976 male deaths and 23 276 female deaths during 10 years of follow-up. Men and women in the highest vs lowest quintile of red (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.27-1.35], and HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.30-1.43], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.12-1.20], and HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.20-1.31], respectively) intakes had elevated risks for overall mortality. Regarding cause-specific mortality, men and women had elevated risks for cancer mortality for red (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.16-1.29], and HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.12-1.30], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.19], and HR, 1.11 [95% CI 1.04-1.19], respectively) intakes. Furthermore, cardiovascular disease risk was elevated for men and women in the highest quintile of red (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.20-1.35], and HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.37-1.65], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.15], and HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.26-1.51], respectively) intakes. When comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of white meat intake, there was an inverse association for total mortality and cancer mortality, as well as all other deaths for both men and women. CONCLUSION Red and processed meat intakes were associated with modest increases in total mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality.

Bone Mass and the Risk of Breast Cancer among Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND Recent studies have shown a direct relation between serum estrogen levels assessed at a single point in time and the risk of breast cancer, but no evidence links estrogen levels assessed repeatedly over an extended interval to the risk of breast cancer. Bone mass has been proposed as a marker of cumulative exposure to estrogen in women. We therefore studied the association between bone mass and the incidence of breast cancer. METHODS Between 1967 and 1970, 1373 women who were 47 to 80 years old and had no history of breast cancer underwent posteroanterior hand radiography in the Framingham Study. We used radiogrametry to measure the cortical width of each womans second metacarpal. Participants were followed until the end of 1993. All incident cases of breast cancer were confirmed by pathological reports. We used a Cox proportional-hazards model to examine the relation of metacarpal bone mass to the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. RESULTS Postmenopausal breast cancer developed in 91 subjects. Incidence rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.0 among the women in the lowest age-specific quartile of metacarpal bone mass to 2.6, 2.7, and 7.0 among the women in the second, third, and highest quartiles, respectively. After adjustments for age and other potential confounding factors, the rate ratios for the risk of breast cancer were 1.0, 1.3, 1.3, and 3.5 from the lowest quartile to the highest (P for trend, <0.001). CONCLUSIONS Women in the highest quartile of bone mass are at higher risk for postmenopausal breast cancer than those in the lowest quartile. The mechanisms underlying this relation are not understood, but cumulative exposure to estrogen may play a part.

A Large Prospective Study of Meat Consumption and Colorectal Cancer Risk: An Investigation of Potential Mechanisms Underlying this Association

Although the relation between red and processed meat intake and colorectal cancer has been reported in several epidemiologic studies, very few investigated the potential mechanisms. This study examined multiple potential mechanisms in a large U.S. prospective cohort with a detailed questionnaire on meat type and meat cooking methods linked to databases for estimating intake of mutagens formed in meats cooked at high temperatures (heterocyclic amines, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), heme iron, nitrate, and nitrite. During 7 years of follow-up, 2,719 colorectal cancer cases were ascertained from a cohort of 300,948 men and women. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) comparing the fifth to the first quintile for both red (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.09-1.42; P(trend) < 0.001) and processed meat (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.32; P(trend) = 0.017) intakes indicated an elevated risk for colorectal cancer. The potential mechanisms for this relation include heme iron (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.99-1.29; P(trend) = 0.022), nitrate from processed meats (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02-1.32; P(trend) = 0.001), and heterocyclic amine intake [HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05-1.34; P(trend) < 0.001 for 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f]quinoxaline (MeIQx) and HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29; P(trend) <0.001 for 2-amino-3,4,8-trimethylimidazo[4,5-f]quinoxaline (DiMeIQx)]. In general, the elevated risks were higher for rectal cancer than for colon cancer, with the exception of MeIQx and DiMeIQx, which were only associated with colon cancer. In conclusion, we found a positive association for red and processed meat intake and colorectal cancer; heme iron, nitrate/nitrite, and heterocyclic amines from meat may explain these associations.

Dealing With Dietary Measurement Error in Nutritional Cohort Studies

Dietary measurement error creates serious challenges to reliably discovering new diet-disease associations in nutritional cohort studies. Such error causes substantial underestimation of relative risks and reduction of statistical power for detecting associations. On the basis of data from the Observing Protein and Energy Nutrition Study, we recommend the following approaches to deal with these problems. Regarding data analysis of cohort studies using food-frequency questionnaires, we recommend 1) using energy adjustment for relative risk estimation; 2) reporting estimates adjusted for measurement error along with the usual relative risk estimates, whenever possible (this requires data from a relevant, preferably internal, validation study in which participants report intakes using both the main instrument and a more detailed reference instrument such as a 24-hour recall or multiple-day food record); 3) performing statistical adjustment of relative risks, based on such validation data, if they exist, using univariate (only for energy-adjusted intakes such as densities or residuals) or multivariate regression calibration. We note that whereas unadjusted relative risk estimates are biased toward the null value, statistical significance tests of unadjusted relative risk estimates are approximately valid. Regarding study design, we recommend increasing the sample size to remedy loss of power; however, it is important to understand that this will often be an incomplete solution because the attenuated signal may be too small to distinguish from unmeasured confounding in the model relating disease to reported intake. Future work should be devoted to alleviating the problem of signal attenuation, possibly through the use of improved self-report instruments or by combining dietary biomarkers with self-report instruments.

Alcohol Consumption and Breast Cancer in the Epidemiologic Follow-up Study of the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

We investigated the relation between alcohol consumption and breast cancer in the Epidemiologic Follow-up Study of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a cohort study based on sample of the U.S. population. A total of 7188 women 25 to 74 years of age who were examined during the period 1971 through 1975 were included in the analysis. Information about alcohol consumption was obtained during the base-line interview. The median follow-up period for this cohort was 10 years. One hundred twenty-one cases of breast cancer that developed after the baseline examination were identified through hospital records or death certificates. The relative-risk estimate for any amount of drinking relative to no drinking was 1.5 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.2). The estimates for three levels of consumption, from the lowest to the highest, were 1.4 (confidence interval, 0.9 to 2.3), 1.5 (0.9 to 2.6), and 1.6 (1.0 to 2.7), in comparison to no drinking at all. These relative-risk estimates were not materially affected by adjustment for known risk factors for breast cancer or for several dietary factors. The results of this study, consistent with those of two other cohort studies and a number of case-control studies, suggest that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with an elevation in the risk of breast cancer of 50 to 100 percent.

Pooled Results From 5 Validation Studies of Dietary Self-Report Instruments Using Recovery Biomarkers for Energy and Protein Intake

We pooled data from 5 large validation studies of dietary self-report instruments that used recovery biomarkers as references to clarify the measurement properties of food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and 24-hour recalls. The studies were conducted in widely differing US adult populations from 1999 to 2009. We report on total energy, protein, and protein density intakes. Results were similar across sexes, but there was heterogeneity across studies. Using a FFQ, the average correlation coefficients for reported versus true intakes for energy, protein, and protein density were 0.21, 0.29, and 0.41, respectively. Using a single 24-hour recall, the coefficients were 0.26, 0.40, and 0.36, respectively, for the same nutrients and rose to 0.31, 0.49, and 0.46 when three 24-hour recalls were averaged. The average rate of under-reporting of energy intake was 28% with a FFQ and 15% with a single 24-hour recall, but the percentages were lower for protein. Personal characteristics related to under-reporting were body mass index, educational level, and age. Calibration equations for true intake that included personal characteristics provided improved prediction. This project establishes that FFQs have stronger correlations with truth for protein density than for absolute protein intake, that the use of multiple 24-hour recalls substantially increases the correlations when compared with a single 24-hour recall, and that body mass index strongly predicts under-reporting of energy and protein intakes.