Arthur van Soest

Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach

A static neoclassical structural model is presented, explaining labor supply of both spouses in two adults households. Family preferences are described with a direct translog utility function, with the husbands leisure, the wifes leisure, and family income as its arguments. We assume that the choice set of each family is finite. Account is taken of the Dutch tax and benefits system. We allow for hours restrictions and random preferences, and account for unobserved wages of nonworkers. The models are estimated using smooth simulated maximum likelihood. Results based upon Dutch cross-section data from 1987 are illustrated by confidence intervals for elasticities, and by several policy simulations.

Estimating Risk Attitudes Using Lotteries: A Large Sample Approach

Attitudes towards risk play a major role in many economic decisions. In empirical studies it is quite often assumed that attitudes towards risk do not vary across individuals. This paper questions this assumption and analyses which factors influence an individuals risk attitude. Based on questions on lotteries in a large household survey we first semiparametrically estimate an index for risk aversion. We only make weak assumptions about the underlying decision process and our estimation method allows for generalisations of expected utility. We then estimate a structural model based on Cumulative Prospect Theory. Expected utility is strongly rejected and both the value function and the probability weighting function vary significantly with (among other things) age, income, and wealth of the individual.

Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

We analyze mobility in urban Mexico between three labor market states: working in the formal sector, working in the informal sector, and not working. A dynamic multinomial logit panel data model with random effects is used, explaining the labor market state of each individual during each time period. The data are drawn from Mexico’s Urban Employment Survey, a quarterly household survey for urban Mexico. While some of the descriptive statistics suggest that informal sector jobs are inferior to formal sector jobs, formal tests cannot reject the null hypothesis of equal transition rates between formal and informal sector jobs for homogeneous groups of workers. Looking at entry and exit into and out of nonemployment, we find that transitions from formal sector jobs to nonemployment were less likely than transitions from informal sector jobs to nonemployment in 1992 but not in 1999, suggesting that employment protection in the formal sector has been reduced.

Language fluency and earnings : Estimation with misclassified language indicators

We use panel data to analyze the determinants of speaking fluency and wages of immigrants. Our model takes account of two problems that may bias OLS estimates of the impact of speaking fluency on earnings. First, subjective variables on an ordinal discrete scale, such as self-reported language ability, can suffer from misclassification errors. The model decomposes misclassification errors into a time-persistent and a time-varying component. Second, the model accounts for correlated unobserved heterogeneity in language and earnings equation. The main finding is that these two generalizations of the standard model both lead to substantial changes in the estimated effect of speaking fluency on earnings.

A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth

Subjective expectations about future income changes are analyzed, using household panel data. The models used are extensions of existing binary choice panel data models to the case of ordered response. We consider static models with random and fixed individual effects. We also look at a dynamic random effects model which includes a measure for permanent and transitory income. We find that income change expectations strongly depend on realized income changes in the past: those whose income fell, are more pessimistic than others, while those whose income rose are more optimistic. Expected income changes are also significantly affected by employment status, family composition, permanent income, and past expectations. Expectations are then compared to the head of households ex post perception of the realized income change for the same period. The main finding is that rational expectations are rejected, and that in particular, households whose income has decreased in the past underestimate their future income growth.

Selection Bias in Web Surveys and the Use of Propensity Scores

Web surveys are a popular survey mode, but the subpopulation with Internet access may not represent the population of interest. The authors investigate whether adjusting using weights or matching on a small set of variables makes the distributions of target variables representative of the population. This application has a rich sampling design; the Internet sample is part of an existing probability sample, the Health and Retirement Study, that is representative of the U.S. population aged 50 and older. For the dichotomous variables investigated, the adjustment helps. On average, the sample means in the Internet access sample differ by 6.5 percent before and 3.7 percent after adjustment. Still, a large number of adjusted estimates remain significantly different from their target estimates based on the complete sample. This casts doubt on the common procedure to use only a few variables to correct for the selectivity of convenience samples.

Wage differentials and mobility in the urban labour market: a panel data analysis for Mexico

We analyze wage differentials mobility between the formal and informal sector in urban Mexico, using panel data on five quarters drawn from Mexicos Urban Employment Survey. We develop a dynamic random effects panel data model. It consists of two separate wage equations for the two sectors and a multinomial logit part explaining the labor market state,in which wages are included as explanatory variables. The model is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood. The estimates show that wage differentials increase with education level. The probability of formal sector mployment strongly increases with the wage differential. Simulated transition probabilities show that for male workers, the choice between formal and informal sector is driven by wage differentials and unobserved heterogeneity, while true state dependence is much less important. For women, nonparticipation is the most common labour market state, and true state dependence plays a much larger role.

Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures

We analyse several limited dependent variable models explaining the budget share that Dutch families spend on vacations. To take account of the substantial number of zero shares, two types of models are used. The first is the single-equation censored regression model. We estimate and test several parametric and semiparametric extensions of the Tobit model. Second, we consider two-equation models, in which the participation decision and the decision on the amount to spend are treated separately. The first decision is modelled as a binary choice model; the second as a conditional regression. We estimate and test parametric and semiparametric specifications. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Labour Supply, Income Taxes And Hours Restrictions In The Netherlands

In this paper, two models of individual labor supply are discussed. The first one is the by now classical Hausman-type model with convex piecewise linear budget constraints, in which both random preferences and optimization errors are incorporated by means of normally distributed random variables. Estimated coefficients are plausible but the model has the shortcoming that unemployment for males is not captured and that the simulated hours distribution misses the spikes in the sample distribution of working hours. Therefore, an alternative model is introduced which explicitly takes into account demand side restrictions on working hours. The difference with the standard model is the replacement of the optimization error by the assumption that each individual can choose from a finite set of wage hours packages and either picks the job offer yielding highest utility or decides not to work. It turns out that this model captures the sample distribution of working hours very well, for males as well as females. Wage and income elasticities according to the two models are similar and in line with other recent findings in The Netherlands. Dead weight loss calculations for the second model which explicitly take the hours restrictions into account, imply that the dead weight loss is much smaller than as calculated with the standard model.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Public and private sector wages of male workers in Germany

In this paper, we analyze several statistical assumptions used in empirical models on public -private sector wage structures. Based on data for Germany, which contain a large range of background variables usually not available in other studies, we investigate the sensitivity of the results to various specification and identification assumptions. The standard switching regression model is extended to allow for endogeneity of education level, experience, and hours worked. These estensions lead to considerably different parameter estimates. We compute and compare conditional and unconditional wage differentials between the public and the private sector for the various specifications. These differentials are sensitive to exclusion restictions on regressors, but robust across specifications which do and do not allow for endogeneity of education, experience, and hours worked.