Arunas P. Kuciauskas

NexSat: Previewing NPOESS/VIIRS Imagery Capabilities

Abstract Under the auspices of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite Systems (NPOESS) Integrated Program Office (IPO), the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed “NexSat” (www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat_pages/nexsat_home.html)—a public-access online demonstration over the continental United States (CONUS) of near-real-time environmental products highlighting future applications from the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Based on a collection of operational and research-grade satellite observing systems, Nex-Sat products include the detection, enhancement, and where applicable, physical retrieval of deep convection, low clouds, light sources at night, rainfall, snow cover, aircraft contrails, thin cirrus layers, dust storms, and cloud/ aerosol properties, all presented in the context of value-added imagery. The purpose of NexSat is threefold: 1) to communicate the advanced capabilities anticipated from VIIRS, 2) to present this information in near–real time for...

MODIS provides a satellite focus on operation iraqi freedom

Extreme weather conditions over southwest Asia posed significant challenges to military operations conducted during the 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) campaign. This paper describes an effort to provide improved environmental characterization by way of a suite of value‐added satellite imagery tools leveraging moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Available from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra and Aqua platforms, these research‐grade data were made available to operational users in 2 to 3 hours turn‐around time via a near real‐time processing effort (NRTPE) interagency collaboration between the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA, and the Department of Defense (DoD). Derived products were packaged into a centralized online graphical user interface, Satellite Focus, which provided a one‐stop resource for satellite information over the southwest Asia domain. A central goal of Satellite Focus was to expedite information gathering while augmenting the capabilities of users tasked to synthesize a wide variety of environmental information in support of time‐critical decisions impacting operational safety and mission success. Presented herein are several examples illustrating the unprecedented capabilities available to Coalition Force users during OIF enabled by near real‐time access to Terra/Aqua MODIS.

Next-Generation Satellite Meteorology Technology Unveiled

AFFILIATIONS: kuciauskas, solBriG, lee, hawkins, surratt, richarDson, anD Bankert—Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, California; miller—Cooperative Institute for Research of the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; kent—Science Applications International Corporation, Monterey, California CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Arunas Kuciauskas, Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA 93943 E-mail: kuciauskas@nrlmry.navy.mil

A meteorological fuzzy expert system incorporating subjective user input

Abstract. We present a fuzzy expert system, MEDEX, for forecasting gale-force winds in the Mediterranean basin. The most successful local wind forecasting in this region is achieved by an expert human forecaster with access to numerical weather prediction products. That forecasters knowledge is expressed as a set of ‘rules-of-thumb’. Fuzzy set methodologies have proved well suited for encoding the forecasters knowledge, and for accommodating the uncertainty inherent in the specification of rules, as well as in subjective and objective input. MEDEX uses fuzzy set theory in two ways: as a fuzzy rule base in the expert system, and for fuzzy pattern matching to select dominant wind circulation patterns as one input to the expert system. The system was developed, tuned, and verified over a two-year period, during which the weather conditions from 539 days were individually analyzed. Evaluations of MEDEX performance for both the onset and cessation of winter and summer winds are presented, and demonstrate that MEDEX has forecasting skill competitive with the US Navys regional forecasting center in Rota, Spain.

A fuzzy expert system to assist in the prediction of hazardous wind conditions within the Mediterranean basin

An expert system (MEDEX) for predicting the gale-force onset, continuation, and cessation of seven major wind types within the Mediterranean basin has been designed, developed, and tested. The six wind types consist of the bora (flowing through both the Adriatic and Aegean Seas), etesian, levante, mistral, sirocco and westerly (poniente and vendaval). Except for the sirocco, these winds result from synoptic situations that lead to topographical channelling. MEDEX is rule-based and incorporates fuzzy logic to handle both objective and subjective inputs, the latter being a unique application of fuzzy logic. MEDEX has approximately 330 fuzzy rules, covering the seven winds in both winter and summer seasons. While MEDEX has been designed as a nowcasting tool (0–12 h), it can be applied to any future time for which forecasting charts (consisting of surface pressure and 500 mb height fields) are available. Inputs consist of objective pressure gradients in addition to subjective interpretations of various synoptic features. These inputs, as well as the corresponding rules, were developed, tuned, and verified over a two-year period during which the weather conditions from 539 days were individually analysed. Ground truth verification was produced primarily from over-water Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) wind speed measurements but also included observations as available, model predictions, and official Navy wind warnings. Evaluations of MEDEX performance for both onset and cessation of winter and summer winds are presented. In addition, comparisons with forecast statistics for the Navys regional weather centre in Rota, Spain show that MEDEX has comparable forecasting skill. Copyright

Remote Cloud Ceiling Assessment Using Data-Mining Methods

Abstract Data-mining methods are applied to numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and satellite data to develop automated algorithms for the diagnosis of cloud ceiling height in regions where no local observations are available at analysis time. A database of hourly records that include Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) output, satellite data, and ground truth observations [aviation routine weather reports (METAR)] has been created. Data were collected over a 2.5-yr period for specific locations in California. Data-mining techniques have been applied to the database to determine relationships in the collected physical parameters that best estimate cloud ceiling conditions, with an emphasis on low ceiling heights. Algorithm development resulted in a three-step approach: 1) determine if a cloud ceiling exists, 2) if a cloud ceiling is determined to exist, determine if the ceiling is high or low (below 1 000 m), and 3) if the cloud ceiling is determined to be low, compute ceil...

Automating the estimation of various meteorological parameters using satellite data and machine learning techniques

Satellite data from various sensors and platforms are being used to develop automated algorithms to assist in U.S. Navy operational weather assessment and forecasting. Supervised machine learning techniques are used to discover patterns in the data and develop associated classification and parameter estimation algorithms. These methods are applied to cloud classification in GOES imagery, tropical cyclone intensity estimation using SSM/I data, and cloud ceiling height estimation at remote locations using appropriate geostationary and polar orbiting satellite data in conjunction with numerical weather prediction output and climatology. All developed algorithms rely on training data sets that consist of records of attributes (computed from the appropriate data source) and the associated ground truth.

User Validation of VIIRS Satellite Imagery

Visible/Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Imagery from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite is the finest spatial resolution (375 m) multi-spectral imagery of any operational meteorological satellite to date. The Imagery environmental data record (EDR) has been designated as a Key Performance Parameter (KPP) for VIIRS, meaning that its performance is vital to the success of a series of Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites that will carry this instrument. Because VIIRS covers the high-latitude and Polar Regions especially well via overlapping swaths from adjacent orbits, the Alaska theatre in particular benefits from VIIRS more than lower-latitude regions. While there are no requirements that specifically address the quality of the EDR Imagery aside from the VIIRS SDR performance requirements, the value of VIIRS Imagery to operational users is an important consideration in the Cal/Val process. As such, engaging a wide diversity of users constitutes a vital part of the Imagery validation strategy. The best possible image quality is of utmost importance. This paper summarizes the Imagery Cal/Val Team’s quality assessment in this context. Since users are a vital component to the validation of VIIRS Imagery, specific examples of VIIRS imagery applied to operational needs are presented as an integral part of the post-checkout Imagery validation.

Supporting Weather Forecasters in Predicting and Monitoring Saharan Air Layer Dust Events as They Impact the Greater Caribbean

AbstractDuring the spring and summer months, the greater Caribbean region typically experiences pulses of moderate to heavy episodes of airborne African dust concentrations that originate over the Sahara Desert and propagate westward across the tropical North Atlantic basin. These dust episodes are often contained within the Saharan air layer (SAL), an elevated air mass (between 850–500 hPa) marked by very dry and warm conditions within the lowest levels. During its westward transport, the SAL’s distinct environmental characteristics can persist well into the Gulf of Mexico and southern United States. As a result, the Caribbean population is susceptible to airborne dust levels that often exceed healthy respiratory limits. One of the major responsibilities within the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico (NWS-PR), is preparing the public within their area of responsibility (AOR) for such events. The Naval Research Laboratory Marine Meteorology Division (NRL-MMD) is sponsored by the National Oce...

Near Real-Time MODIS Applications Supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom

*† ‡ § , An automated system for transitioning and hosting high spatial/spectral resolution near real-time research-grade data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); sensors aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua sunsynchronous platforms provided direct support of Department of Defense (DoD) assets during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Through an inter-agency collaboration between the DoD, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), swift progress from concept to implementation enabled time-critical and mission-specific value-added satellite imagery pertaining to dust storms, nocturnal low cloud detection, convective cloud diagnostics, snow/cloud discrimination and fire/hot-spot detection to reach DoD customers for use in strike briefs, aircraft routing, ship navigation, and target and weapons selection. This paper details the data procurement, processing, and implementation during OIF for the fully automated Satellite Focus system.