Arwin G Zeissler

Ireland and Iceland in Crisis A: Increasing Risk in Ireland

Ireland went from being the poorest member of the European Economic Community in 1973 to enjoying the second highest per-capita income among European countries by 2007. Healthy growth in the 1990s eventually gave way to a concentrated boom in property-related lending in the 2000s. The growth in the aggregate loan balances of Ireland’s six major banks greatly exceeded the growth in gross domestic product (GDP); as a result, bank loan balances grew from 1.1 times GDP in 2000 to over 2.0 times GDP by 2007. Given the small size of the domestic retail depositor base, the Irish banks increasingly used the wholesale market to fund loan growth, despite its risks. The property-related lending boom proved unsustainable during the global financial crisis, and, on September 29, 2008, the government of Ireland took the unprecedented step of guaranteeing the deposits and substantially all other liabilities of the major Irish banks.

Ireland and Iceland in Crisis B: Decreasing Loan Loss Provisions in Ireland

All public companies in the European Union, including Ireland’s major banks, were required to adopt IAS 39 for their annual accounting periods beginning on or after January 1, 2005. Under the “incurred loss” model of IAS 39, banks could set aside reserves for loan losses only when objective evidence existed that a loan was impaired, not in anticipation of future losses. As a result, Irish banks saw their aggregate reserve for bad loans drop from 1.2% of loan balances at the end of 2000 to only 0.4% by 2006-2007, just before the collapse of the banking industry caused loan losses to soar. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, financial regulators and accounting bodies recognized the weakness of the pro-cyclical incurred loss model. As a result, they have proposed alternative “expected loss” models that allow reserves for expected losses to be built up over the life of a loan in a counter-cyclical fashion.