Asami Miketa

Experiments with a methodology to model the role of RD first results

This paper presents the results of using a stylized optimization model of the global electricity supply system to analyze the optimal research and development (RD the formulation is a straightforward expansion of conventional one-factor learning curves, in which only cumulative experience is included as a factor, which aggregates the effects of accumulated knowledge and cumulative experience, among others. The responsiveness of technological progress to the two factors is quantified using learning parameters, which are estimated using empirical data. Sensitivities of the model results to the parameters are also tested. The model results also address the effect of competition between technologies and of CO2 constraints. The results are mainly methodological; one of the most interesting is that, at least up to a point, competition between technologies—in terms of both market share and R&D support—need not lead to “lock-in” or “crowding-out”.

Achieving a Sustainable Global Energy System

Sustainable development and global climate change have figured prominently in scientific analysis and international policymaking since the early 1990s. This book formulates technology strategies that will lead to environmentally sustainable energy systems, based on an analysis of global climate change issues using the concept of sustainable development. The authors focus on environmentally compatible, long-term technology developments within the global energy system, while also considering aspects of economic and social sustainability.

Energy-economy-environment scenarios at IIASA-ECS

In this chapter we describe general characteristics of energy-economy- environment scenarios. We characterize three groups of scenarios (high-impact, mitigation, and sustainable-development). We then characterize SD scenarios in more detail by comparing ranges of key variables (driving forces and results) of SD scenarios with ranges of the same variables chosen from the IPCC-SRES database of scenarios.