Ashok K. Bhalla

Incidence of vertebral fracture in europe: results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS).

Vertebral fracture is one of the major adverse clinical consequences of osteoporosis; however, there are few data concerning the incidence of vertebral fracture in population samples of men and women. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of vertebral fracture in European men and women. A total of 14,011 men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population‐based registers in 29 European centers and had an interviewer‐administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs performed. The response rate for participation in the study was approximately 50%. Repeat spinal radiographs were performed a mean of 3.8 years following the baseline film. All films were evaluated morphometrically. The definition of a morphometric fracture was a vertebra in which there was evidence of a 20% (+4 mm) or more reduction in anterior, middle, or posterior vertebral height between films—plus the additional requirement that a vertebra satisfy criteria for a prevalent deformity (using the McCloskey‐Kanis method) in the follow‐up film. There were 3174 men, mean age 63.1 years, and 3614 women, mean age 62.2 years, with paired duplicate spinal radiographs (48% of those originally recruited to the baseline survey). The age standardized incidence of morphometric fracture was 10.7/1000 person years (pyr) in women and 5.7/1000 pyr in men. The age‐standardized incidence of vertebral fracture as assessed qualitatively by the radiologist was broadly similar—12.1/1000 pyr and 6.8/1000 pyr, respectively. The incidence increased markedly with age in both men and women. There was some evidence of geographic variation in fracture occurrence; rates were higher in Sweden than elsewhere in Europe. This is the first large population‐based study to ascertain the incidence of vertebral fracture in men and women over 50 years of age across Europe. The data confirm the frequent occurrence of the disorder in men as well as in women and the rise in incidence with age.

Determinants of incident vertebral fracture in men and women: results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS)

Abstract The aim of this analysis was to determine the influence of lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors on the subsequent risk of incident vertebral fracture in men and women aged 50–79 years. Subjects were recruited from population registers from 28 centers across Europe. At baseline, they completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire and had lateral thoraco-lumbar spine radiographs performed. Repeat spinal radiographs were performed a mean of 3.8 years later. Incident vertebral fractures were defined morphometrically and also qualitatively by an experienced radiologist. Poisson regression was used to determine the influence of the baseline risk factor variables on the occurrence of incident vertebral fracture. A total of 3173 men (mean age 63.1 years) and 3402 women (mean age 62.2 years) contributed data to the analysis. In total there were 193 incident morphometric and 224 qualitative fractures. In women, an age at menarche 16 years or older was associated with an increased risk of vertebral fracture (RR=1.80; 95%CI 1.24, 2.63), whilst use of hormonal replacement was protective (RR=0.58; 95%CI 0.34, 0.99). None of the lifestyle factors studied including smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity or milk consumption showed any consistent associations with incident vertebral fracture. In men and women, increasing body weight and body mass index were associated with a reduced risk of vertebral fracture though, apart from body mass index in men, the confidence intervals embraced unity. For most variables the strengths of the associations observed were similar using the qualitative and morphometric approaches to fracture definition. In conclusion our data suggest that modification of other lifestyle risk factors is unlikely to have a major impact on the population occurrence of vertebral fractures. The important biological mechanisms underlying vertebral fracture risk need to be explored using new investigational strategies.

Incidence of limb fracture across Europe: Results from the European prospective osteoporosis study (EPOS)

Abstract: The aim of this population-based prospective study was to determine the incidence of limb fracture by site and gender in different regions of Europe. Men and women aged 50–79 years were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers. Subjects were invited to attend for an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs. Subjects were subsequently followed up using an annual postal questionnaire which included questions concerning the occurrence of new fractures. Self-reported fractures were confirmed where possible by radiograph, attending physician or subject interview. There were 6451 men and 6936 women followed for a median of 3.0 years. During this time there were 140 incident limb fractures in men and 391 in women. The age-adjusted incidence of any limb fracture was 7.3/1000 person-years [pyrs] in men and 19 per 1000 pyrs in women, equivalent to a 2.5 times excess in women. Among women, the incidence of hip, humerus and distal forearm fracture, though not ‘other’ limb fracture, increased with age, while in men only the incidence of hip and humerus fracture increased with age. Among women, there was evidence of significant variation in the occurrence of hip, distal forearm and humerus fractures across Europe, with incidence rates higher in Scandinavia than in other European regions, though for distal forearm fracture the incidence in east Europe was similar to that observed in Scandinavia. Among men, there was no evidence of significant geographic variation in the occurrence of these fractures. This is the first large population-based study to characterize the incidence of limb fracture in men and women over 50 years of age across Europe. There are substantial differences in the descriptive epidemiology of limb fracture by region and gender.

Mortality Associated with Vertebral Deformity in Men and Women: Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS)

Abstract: Clinically apparent vertebral deformities are associated with reduced survival. The majority of subjects with radiographic vertebral deformity do not, however, come to medical attention. The aim of this study was to determine the association between radiographic vertebral deformity and subsequent mortality. The subjects who took part in the analysis were recruited for participation in a multicentre population-based survey of vertebral osteoporosis in Europe. Men and women aged 50 years and over were invited to attend for an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs. Radiographs were evaluated morphometrically and vertebral deformity defined according to established criteria. The participants have been followed by annual postal questionnaire – the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Information concerning the vital status of participants was available from 6480 subjects, aged 50–79 years, from 14 of the participating centres. One hundred and eighty-nine deaths (56 women and 133 men) occurred during a total of 14 380 person-years of follow-up (median 2.3 years). In women, after age adjustment, there was a modest excess mortality in those with, compared with those without, vertebral deformity: rate ratio (RR) = 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0,3.4). In men, the excess risk was smaller and non-significant RR = 1.3 (95% CI 0.9,2.0). After further adjusting for smoking, alcohol consumption, previous hip fracture, general health, body mass index and steroid use, the excess risk was reduced and non-significant in both sexes: women, RR = 1.6 (95% CI 0.9,3.0); men RR = 1.2 (95% CI 0.7,1.8). Radiographic vertebral deformity is associated with a modest excess mortality, particularly in women. Part of this excess can be explained by an association with other adverse health and lifestyle factors linked to mortality.

Prevalent Vertebral Deformity Predicts Incident Hip though not distal Forearm Fracture: Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study

Abstract: The presence of a vertebral deformity increases the risk of subsequent spinal deformities. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether the presence of vertebral deformity predicts incident hip and other limb fractures. Six thousand three hundred and forty-four men and 6788 women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers and followed prospectively for a median of 3 years. All subjects had radiographs performed at baseline and the presence of vertebral deformity was assessed using established morphometric methods. Incident limb fractures which occurred during the follow- up period were ascertained by annual postal questionnaire and confirmed by radiographs, review of medical records and personal interview. During a total of 40 348 person-years of follow-up, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture. Amongst the women, after adjustment for age, prevalent vertebral deformity was a strong predictor of incident hip fracture, (rate ratio (RR) = 4.5; 95% CI 2.1–9.4) and a weak predictor of ‘other’ limb fractures (RR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1–2.4), though not distal forearm fracture (RR = 1.0; 95% CI 0.6–1.6). The predictive risk increased with increasing number of prevalent deformities, particularly for subsequent hip fracture: for two or more deformities, RR = 7.2 (95% CI 3.0–17.3). Amongst men, vertebral deformity was not associated with an increased risk of incident limb fracture though there was a nonsignificant trend toward an increased risk of hip fracture with increasing number of deformities. In summary, prevalent radiographic vertebral deformities in women are a strong predictor of hip fracture, and to a lesser extent humerus and ‘other’ limb fractures; however, they do not predict distal forearm fractures.

Use of clinical risk factors to identify postmenopausal women with vertebral fractures

Introduction and hypothesisPrevious studies have been unable to identify risk factors for prevalent vertebral fractures (VF), which are suitable for use in selection strategies intended to target high-risk sub-groups for diagnostic assessment. However, these studies generally consisted of large epidemiology surveys based on questionnaires and were only able to evaluate a limited number of risk factors. Here, we investigated whether a stronger relationship exists with prevalent VF when conventional risk factors are combined with additional information obtained from detailed one-to-one assessment.MethodsWomen aged 65–75 registered at four geographically distinct GP practices were invited to participate (n=1,518), of whom 540 attended for assessment as follows: a questionnaire asking about risk factors for osteoporosis such as height loss compared to age 25 and history of non-vertebral fracture (NVF), the get-up-and-go test, Margolis back pain score, measurement of wall-tragus and rib-pelvis distances, and BMD as measured by the distal forearm BMD. A lateral thoraco-lumbar spine X-ray was obtained, which was subsequently scored for the presence of significant vertebral deformities.ResultsOf the 509 subjects who underwent spinal radiographs, 37 (7.3%) were found to have one or more VF. Following logistic regression analysis, the four most predictive clinical risk factors for prevalent VF were: height loss (P=0.006), past NVF (P=0.004), history of back pain (P=0.075) and age (P=0.05). BMD was also significantly associated with prevalent VF (P=0.002), but its inclusion did not affect associations with other variables. Factors elicited from detailed one-to-one assessment were not related to the risk of one or more prevalent VFs. The area under ROC curves derived from these regressions, which suggested that models for prevalent VF had modest predictive accuracy, were as follows: 0.68 (BMD), 0.74 (four clinical risk factors above) and 0.78 (clinical risk factors + BMD). Analyses were repeated in relation to the subgroup of 13 patients with two or more VFs, which revealed that in this instance, the Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance were associated with the presence of multiple VFs (P=0.022 and 0.026, respectively). Moreover, the predictive value as reflected by the ROC curve area was improved: 0.80 (BMD), 0.88 (the four most predictive clinical risk factors consisting of the height loss, past NVF, Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance) and 0.91 (clinical risk factors + BMD).ConclusionsEvaluation of additional risk factors from detailed one-to-one assessment does not improve the predictive value of risk factors for one or more prevalent vertebral deformities in postmenopausal women. However, the use of factors such as the Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance may be helpful in identifying postmenopausal women at high risk of multiple prevalent VFs.

Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction; results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study

IntroductionVertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5–20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age.MethodsData was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models.ResultsIn a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010).ConclusionWe conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.

Association of cytokine and matrix metalloproteinase profiles with disease activity and function in ankylosing spondylitis

IntroductionThe pathology of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) suggests that certain cytokines and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) might provide useful markers of disease activity. Serum levels of some cytokines and MMPs have been found to be elevated in active disease, but there is a general lack of information about biomarker profiles in AS and how these are related to disease activity and function. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether clinical measures of disease activity and function in AS are associated with particular profiles of circulating cytokines and MMPs.MethodsMeasurement of 30 cytokines, five MMPs and four tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases was carried out using Luminex® technology on a well-characterised population of AS patients (n = 157). The relationship between biomarker levels and measures of disease activity (Bath ankylosing spondylitis disease activity index (BASDAI)), function (Bath ankylosing spondylitis functional index) and global health (Bath ankylosing spondylitis global health) was investigated. Principal component analysis was used to reduce the large number of biomarkers to a smaller set of independent components, which were investigated for their association with clinical measures. Further analyses were carried out using hierarchical clustering, multiple regression or multivariate logistic regression.ResultsPrincipal component analysis identified eight clusters consisting of various combinations of cytokines and MMPs. The strongest association with the BASDAI was found with a component consisting of MMP-8, MMP-9, hepatocyte growth factor and CXCL8, and was independent of C-reactive protein levels. This component was also associated with current smoking. Hierarchical clustering revealed two distinct patient clusters that could be separated on the basis of MMP levels. The high MMP cluster was associated with increased C-reactive protein, the BASDAI and the Bath ankylosing spondylitis functional index.ConclusionsA profile consisting of high levels of MMP-8, MMP-9, hepatocyte growth factor and CXCL8 is associated with increased disease activity in AS. High MMP levels are also associated with smoking and worse function in AS.

Lateral back pain identifies prevalent vertebral fractures in post-menopausal women: cross-sectional analysis of a primary care-based cohort

OBJECTIVE Vertebral fractures (VFs) are frequently under-recognized, reflecting their lack of diagnostic clinical features. For example, although VFs are associated with back pain, this is also common in the general population. To establish whether back pain can be used to recognize patients with VF, we investigated the site of pain in people with and without VFs using a simple tool. METHODS A cohort of 504 post-menopausal women was recruited from primary care in South West UK. Back pain was assessed by self-completion of the Margolis pain diagram, and analysis was modified to assess whether pain was mid-line or lateral. VFs were diagnosed by the algorithm-based qualitative method on radiographs. A cross-sectional analysis was carried out to assess the association between back pain and VFs. RESULTS Three hundred and twenty-two women (64.1%) reported back pain over the last 12 months. Thirty seven (7.3%) had one or more VFs. In women with back pain, the presence of lateral waist area pain was associated with a 4.5-fold increased risk of VFs [odds ratio (OR) 4.48; 95% CI 2.02, 9.94; P < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS In post-menopausal women with back pain, the presence of lateral waist pain, as shown on the Margolis pain diagram, may identify women at higher risk of prevalent VF.

BSR and BHPR guideline for the treatment of axial spondyloarthritis (including ankylosing spondylitis) with biologics

Axial SpA (axSpA) is a chronic inflammatory condition predominantly involving the spine and sacroiliac joints (SIJ), with or without extra-spinal manifestations including peripheral arthritis, enthesitis, iritis, psoriasis and IBD. Individuals with axSpA experience significant pain, stiffness and lack of function, which translates into important health care costs and increased mortality. AxSpA can be classified into two subgroups: radiographic axSpA, commonly referred to as AS, and non-radiographic axSpA (nr-axSpA). The primary difference between these two subgroups is the presence or absence of defined structural changes in the SIJ as detected on plain radiography. A diagnosis of AS can be made according to the modified New York criteria when radiographs show at least grade 2 sacroiliitis bilaterally or grade 3 unilaterally, in the presence of appropriate clinical symptoms [1]. In contrast, SIJ radiographs may be completely normal in nr-axSpA. The radiographic changes of AS may take 8 10 years to manifest, with a progression rate from nr-axSpA to AS of 12% every 2 years [2], although some patients with nr-axSpA never develop AS. Disease progression is predicted most strongly