Astrid E. J. Ogilvie

Interdisciplinary investigations of the end of the Norse Western Settlement in Greenland

The loss of the Norse Western Settlement in Greenland around the mid-fourteenth century has long been taken as a prime example of the impact of changing climate on human populations. This study employs an interdisciplinary approach combining historical documents, detailed archaeological investigations, and a high-resolution proxy climate record from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) to investigate possible causes for the end of this settlement. Historical climate records, mainly from Iceland, contain evidence for lowered temperatures and severe weather in the north Atlantic region around the mid-fourteenth century. Archaeological, palaeoecological and historical data specifically concerning the Western Settlement suggest that Norse living conditions left little buffer for unseasonable climate, and provide evidence for a sudden and catastrophic end around the mid-fourteenth century. Isotopic data from the GISP2 ice core provide annual- and seasonal-scale proxy-temperature signals which suggest multiyear intervals of lowered temperatures in the early and mid-fourteenth century. The research synthesized here suggests that, while periods of unfavourable climatic fluctuations are likely to have played a role in the end of the Western Settlement, it was their cultural vulnerabilities to environmental change that left the Norse far more subject to disaster than their Inuit neigh bours.

The past climate and sea-ice record from Iceland, Part 1: Data to A.D. 1780

A new reconstruction of the climate and sea-ice record for Iceland from medieval times to A.D. 1780 is presented, based on all available documentary sources. The importance of careful historical analysis to separate reliable from unreliable material is stressed, and these reconstructions are the first to have been produced using only reliable data. The major previous works on the subject (those of Thoroddsen, Koch, and BergþórssonIn Icelandic personal and place names the Icelandic characters þ and ð are retained throughout. (‘þP’ is pronounced like the th sound in ‘thimble’ and ‘ð’ like th in ‘clothe’). In cases where names have been anglicized in published sources, the Icelandic version is given here.), which all include unreliable material, are discussed. Prior to A.D. 1600 the data are not considered to be full enough to permit a quantitative interpretation. For the period A.D. 1601 to 1780 decadal temperature and sea-ice indices are given.Although there is very little evidence for the first few centuries of settlement in Iceland (from c. 870 to c. 1170) the data suggest a fairly mild climatic period. Cold periods occurred around 1200, and at the end of the thirteenth century. The fourteenth century was very variable with a cold period in the 1350s to c. 1380. Between 1430 and c. 1560 there are very few contemporary sources and it is difficult to draw any conclusions on the climate during this time. The latter part of the sixteenth century was undoubtedly cold. From 1601 there are sufficient data to permit a decade by decade analysis. This shows a mild period between 1640 and 1670, and severe decades in the 1630s, 1690s, 1740s, and 1750s. Year to year and decade to decade variability is appreciable. The correlation between temperature and sea ice is not perfect but is still quite strong (similar to today). Because data have been gathered from different regions of Iceland it has been possible to demonstrate the spatial variability of Icelands climate during the period 1601 to 1780. For example, during 1660 to 1700 there was a cooling in the north and west but warming in the south. The 1690s, the coldest decade of the Little Ice Age in Europe, was extremely cold in the west of Iceland, but less severe elsewhere.

Long-term temperature trends and variability on Spitsbergen: the extended Svalbard Airport temperature series, 1898-2012

One of the few long instrumental records available for the Arctic is the Svalbard Airport composite series that hitherto began in 1911, with observations made on Spitsbergen, the largest island in the Svalbard Archipelago. This record has now been extended to 1898 with the inclusion of observations made by hunting and scientific expeditions. Temperature has been observed almost continuously in Svalbard since 1898, although at different sites. It has therefore been possible to create one composite series for Svalbard Airport covering the period 1898–2012, and this valuable new record is presented here. The series reveals large temperature variability on Spitsbergen, with the early 20th century warming as one striking feature: an abrupt change from the cold 1910s to the local maxima of the 1930s and 1950s. With the inclusion of the new data it is possible to show that the 1910s were colder than the years at the start of the series. From the 1960s, temperatures have increased, so the present temperature level is significantly higher than at any earlier period in the instrumental history. For the entire period, and for all seasons, there are positive, statistically significant trends. Regarding the annual mean, the total trend is 2.6°C/century, whereas the largest trend is in spring, at 3.9°C/century. In Europe, it is the Svalbard Archipelago that has experienced the greatest temperature increase during the latest three decades. The composite series may be downloaded from the home page of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and should be used with reference to the present article.

Bioarchaeological and climatological evidence for the fate of Norse farmers in medieval Greenland

Greenland, far north land of the Atlantic, has often been beyond the limit of European farming settlement. One of its Norse settlements, colonized just before AD 1000, is — astonishingly — not even at the southern tip, but a way up the west coast, the ‘Western Settlement’. Environmental studies show why its occupation came to an end within five centuries, leaving Greenland once more a place of Arctic-adapted hunters.

Weather compilations as a source of data for the reconstruction of european climate during the medieval period

Research into the climate of the Middle Ages has relied heavily upon data provided by compilations of references to weather and related phenomena extracted from a variety of historical texts and source documents. These compilations, produced from 1858 onwards, have generally neglected the essential need for source validation. While a considerable amount of reliable and useful information about medieval climate is to be found in documentary sources, it occurs together with material which is spurious, inaccurate, or whose reliability cannot be properly authenticated. Because they were, for the most part, scientists, unfamiliar with historical methodology and techniques of source analysis, the authors of the compilations were either unaware of the problematic character of their sources, or ignorant of the techniques developed by historians for dealing with them. The material included in the compilations must be regarded as suspect until its authenticity has been checked by validating individual sources. Unless this is done, a misleading picture of the climate of the Middle Ages may emerge from uncritical use of the compilations. In particular, the climate may appear to have been more extreme than authentic sources alone would suggest.

A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea ice

Satellite data suggest an Arctic sea ice-climate system in rapid transformation, yet its long-term natural modes of variability are poorly known. Here we integrate and synthesize a set of multicentury historical records of Atlantic Arctic sea ice, supplemented with high-resolution paleoproxy records, each reflecting primarily winter/spring sea ice conditions. We establish a signal of pervasive and persistent multidecadal (~60–90 year) fluctuations that is most pronounced in the Greenland Sea and weakens further away. Covariability between sea ice and Atlantic multidecadal variability as represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is evident during the instrumental record, including an abrupt change at the onset of the early twentieth century warming. Similar covariability through previous centuries is evident from comparison of the longest historical sea ice records and paleoproxy reconstructions of sea ice and the AMO. This observational evidence supports recent modeling studies that have suggested that Arctic sea ice is intrinsically linked to Atlantic multidecadal variability. This may have implications for understanding the recent negative trend in Arctic winter sea ice extent, although because the losses have been greater in summer, other processes and feedbacks are also important.

Monthly mean pressure reconstruction for the Late Maunder Minimum Period (AD 1675–1715)

The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM; 1675-1715) delineates a period with marked climate variability within the Little Ice Age in Europe. Gridded monthly mean surface pressure fields were reconstructed for this period for the eastern North Atlantic-European region (25°W-30°E and 35-70°N). These were based on continuous information drawn from proxy and instrumental data taken from several European data sites. The data include indexed temperature and rainfall values, sea ice conditions from northern Iceland and the Western Baltic. In addition, limited instrumental data, such as air temperature from central England (CET) and Paris, reduced mean sea level pressure (SLP) at Paris, and monthly mean wind direction in the Oresund (Denmark) are used. The reconstructions are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA), with the standardized station data as predictors and the SLP pressure fields as predictand. The CCA-based model was performed using data from the twentieth century. The period 1901-1960 was used to calibrate the statistical model, and the remaining 30 years (1961-1990) for the validation of the reconstructed monthly pressure fields. Assuming stationarity of the statistical relationships, the calibrated CCA model was then used to predict the monthly LMM SLP fields. The verification results illustrated that the regression equations developed for the majority of grid points contain good predictive skill. Nevertheless, there are seasonal and geographical limitations for which valid spatial SLP patterns can be reconstructed. Backward elimination techniques indicated that Paris station air pressure and temperature, CET, and the wind direction in the Oresund are the most important predictors, together sharing more than 65% of the total variance. The reconstructions are compared with additional data and subjectively reconstructed monthly pressure charts for the years 1675-1704. It is shown that there are differences between the two approaches. However, for extreme years the reconstructions are in good agreement.

Oceanographic Change and Terrestrial Human Impacts in a Post A.D. 1400 Sediment Record from the Southwest Iceland Shelf

Environmental proxies of soil erosion on Iceland, and oceanographic conditions on the adjacent shelf, were measured on a 50 cm box core taken from the southwest Iceland shelf in 1993 during cruise 93030 of the Canadian ship, CSS Hudson. These data, covering the last several centuries, are compared with the documentary record of sea-ice changes around Iceland since A.D. 1600. The site is under the influence of the Irminger Current, which carries warm, saline, Atlantic water northward along the shelf. Because of the relative warmth of this current, sea ice rarely occurs off southwest Iceland, even during the most severe sea-ice intervals of the historical record. In severe sea-ice years, however, the ice drifts clockwise around Iceland from the northeast and east and, in rare cases, reaches the southern coasts (Ogilvie, 1992). The chronology of the core was established by converting the basal radiocarbon date to calendar years and assuming a linear sedimentation rate from the base of the core to the year of collection, 1993. Organic carbon, stable C and O istotope ratios, planktonic foraminiferal assemblages, and sediment magnetic parameters were measured on samples from the core, plotted against calendar years and compared to the Icelandic sea-ice index. The environmental proxies suggest that increased soil erosion, reduced salinity, and, possibly, decreased marine productivity prevailed during the severe sea-ice interval lasting from the last quarter of the eighteenth century to around 1920. Such a situation could develop with climatic cooling, increased storminess, and loss of vegetation cover to stabilise the soil. Although the core site generally lies outside the sea-ice limits, the evidence clearly shows the influence of sea ice and fresh water, and is sensitive to the overall climatic deterioration manifested by the sea-ice record.

Seals and Sea Ice in Medieval Greenland

Abstract Multidisciplinary approaches are used to examine possible changes in North Atlantic sea-ice cover, in the context of seal hunting, during the period of the Norse occupation of Greenland (ca. 985–1500). Information from Iceland is also used in order to amplify and illuminate the situation in Greenland. Data are drawn mainly from zooarchaeological analyses, but written records of climate and sea-ice variations, as well as paleoclimatic data sets are also discussed. Although it should be noted that any use of seal bones from excavated archaeofauna (animal bone collections from archaeological sites) must recognize the filtering effects of past human economic organization, technology, and seal-hunting strategies, it is suggested that differing biological requirements of the six seal species most commonly found in Arctic/North Atlantic regions may provide a potential proxy for past climate, in particular sea-ice conditions. It is concluded that an increase in the taking of harp seals, as opposed to common seals, in the Norse Greenland “Eastern Settlement” in the late-fourteenth century, may reflect an increase in summer drift-ice.

11. Local knowledge and travellers' tales: a selection of climatic observations in Iceland

Iceland is well-known for its rich literary tradition which includes a wealth of historical records containing accounts of climate and weather (Thoroddsen, 1916–17; Porarinsson, 1956b; Bergporsson, 1969a; Ogilvie, 1984, Ogilvie, 1991, 1992a; Ogilvie and Jonsson, 2001). In this paper, some of these sources will be described and evaluated and the information gathered from them will be used to cast light on variations in the climate of Iceland over the last 1000 years or so. The historical records discussed here consist primarily of information from native Icelanders, in other words, the products of local knowledge. Some accounts by foreign visitors to Iceland will also be considered. Of the many available sources, only a few can be highlighted here. These will include accounts taken from a number of different sources, from a variety of genres: the earliest historical works from Iceland; the Icelandic sagas; annals; geographical works; official reports, weather diaries and the accounts of travellers. The evidence from these sources for climatic variations in Iceland over the last 1000 or so years will be also be charted.