Astrid J.A. van Teeffelen

Connectivity, probabilities and persistence: comparing reserve selection strategies

Reserve selection methods are often based on information on species’ occurrence. This can be presence–absence data, or probabilities of occurrence estimated with species distribution models. However, the effect of the choice of distribution model on the outcome of a reserve selection method has been ignored. Here we test a range of species distribution models with three different reserve selection methods. The distribution models had different combinations of variables related to habitat quality and connectivity (which incorporates the effect of spatial habitat configuration on species occurrence). The reserve selection methods included (i) a minimum set approach without spatial considerations; (ii) a clustering reserve selection method; and (iii) a dynamic approach where probabilities of occurrence are re-evaluated according to the spatial pattern of selected sites. The sets of selected reserves were assessed by re-computing species probability of occurrence in reserves using the best probability model and assuming loss of non-selected habitat. The results show that particular choices of distribution model and selection method may lead to reserves that overestimate the achieved target; in other words, species may seem to be represented but the reserve network may actually not be able to support them in the long-term. Instead, the use of models that incorporated connectivity as a variable resulted in the selection of aggregated reserves with higher potential for species long-term persistence. As reserve design aims at the long-term protection of species, it is important to be aware of the uncertainties related to model and method choice and their implications.

Effects of landscape configuration on mapping ecosystem service capacity: a review of evidence and a case study in Scotland

ContextHumans structure landscapes for the production of food, fibre and fuel, commonly resulting in declines of non-provisioning ecosystem services (ESs). Heterogeneous landscapes are capable of providing multiple ESs, and landscape configuration—spatial arrangement of land cover in the landscape—is expected to affect ES capacity. However, the majority of ES mapping studies have not accounted for landscape configuration.ObjectivesOur objective is to assess and quantify the relevance of configuration for mapping ES capacity. A review of empirical evidence for configuration effects on the capacity of ten ESs reveals that for four ESs configuration is relevant but typically ignored in ES quantification. For four ESs we quantify the relevance of configuration for mapping ESs using Scotland as a case study.MethodsEach ES was quantified through modelling, respectively ignoring or accounting for configuration. The difference in ES capacity between the two ES models was determined at multiple spatial scales.ResultsConfiguration affected the capacity of all four ESs mapped, particularly at the cell and watershed scale. At the scale of Scotland most local effects averaged out. Flood control and sediment retention responded strongest to configuration. ESs were affected by different aspects of configuration, thus requiring specific methods for mapping each ES.ConclusionsAccounting for configuration is important for the assessment of certain ESs at the cell and watershed scale. Incorporating configuration in landscape management provides opportunities for spatial optimization of ES capacity, but the diverging response of ESs to configuration suggests that accounting for configuration involves trade-offs between ESs.

How climate proof is the European Union’s biodiversity policy?

Abstract In the European Union’s (EU) targets for the year 2020, climate change is recognised as a key challenge for biodiversity conservation. Meeting this challenge requires insight at three levels: the climate change impacts on biodiversity in the EU; the adaptation options put forward to alleviate these impacts; and how current EU policy can accommodate the adaptation options. These three topics have all been discussed in the peer-reviewed literature, but typically in isolation and with potential bias in attention for specific aspects such as species distribution shifts and network connectivity. Here, we bring these three levels together to identify matches and gaps between them, to guide policy development. In particular, we assess key concerns on the degree to which EU biodiversity policy facilitates climate change adaptation. Our findings indicate that, firstly, available adaptation options do not cover all impacts of climate change. Options are biased towards shifts and contractions in species distributions, while, e.g., disruption of species interactions is not addressed yet. Second, proposed adaptation options are often generic and lack spatial specificity, revealing an urgent need for guidance on identifying appropriate, albeit adaptive responses to the range of climate change impacts. Third, while EU biodiversity policy requires and supports adaptation in several ways, its narrow interpretation hinders its potential to conserve biodiversity under climate change. Remaining policy gaps include: (1) conservation targets need to better match conservation needs; (2) targets need to be set in a spatially coherent manner across national scales; (3) current monitoring appears insufficient to address these gaps.

Use of demand for and spatial flow of ecosystem services to identify priority areas

Policies and research increasingly focus on the protection of ecosystem services (ESs) through priority-area conservation. Priority areas for ESs should be identified based on ES capacity and ES demand and account for the connections between areas of ES capacity and demand (flow) resulting in areas of unique demand-supply connections (flow zones). We tested ways to account for ES demand and flow zones to identify priority areas in the European Union. We mapped the capacity and demand of a global (carbon sequestration), a regional (flood regulation), and 3 local ESs (air quality, pollination, and urban leisure). We used Zonation software to identify priority areas for ESs based on 6 tests: with and without accounting for ES demand and 4 tests that accounted for the effect of ES flow zone. There was only 37.1% overlap between the 25% of priority areas that encompassed the most ESs with and without accounting for ES demand. The level of ESs maintained in the priority areas increased from 23.2% to 57.9% after accounting for ES demand, especially for ESs with a small flow zone. Accounting for flow zone had a small effect on the location of priority areas and level of ESs maintained but resulted in fewer flow zones without ES maintained relative to ignoring flow zones. Accounting for demand and flow zones enhanced representation and distribution of ESs with local to regional flow zones without large trade-offs relative to the global ES. We found that ignoring ES demand led to the identification of priority areas in remote regions where benefits from ES capacity to society were small. Incorporating ESs in conservation planning should therefore always account for ES demand to identify an effective priority network for ESs.

Public Support for Wetland Restoration: What is the Link With Ecosystem Service Values?

Fostering public support for wetland restoration is essential for long-term sustainable management and use of wetland areas. This paper explores the socio-cultural dimension of wetland restoration, by looking at the importance of wetland ecosystem services for different user groups. We try to better comprehend such values by evaluating the awareness people have of ecosystem services and the direct benefits people obtain from the ecosystems in their surroundings. In addition, we study how the values people assign to ecosystem services are related to wetland restoration attitudes. We identified four perspectives towards wetland restoration, which could partially be explained by corresponding values for ecosystem services: an eco-centric, a cultural, an economic and a negative perspective. To gather public support for wetland restoration it is important to take into account the different motivations people have to support such initiatives.

European policy responses to climate change: progress on mainstreaming emissions reduction and adaptation

This paper presents new algorithms for the dynamic generation of scenario trees for multistage stochatic optimization. The different methods described are based on random vectors, which are drawn from conditional distributions given the past and on sample trajectories. The structure of the tree is not determined beforehand, but dynamically adapted to meet a distance criterion, which measures the quality of the approximation. The criterion is built on transportation theory, which is extended to stochastic processes.

Blind spots in ecosystem services research and implementation

Ecosystem service research has gained attraction, and the topic is also high on the policy agenda. Projects such as TEEB have generalized results of individual case studies to provide guidelines for policy makers and stakeholders. Seppelt et al. (2011) raised critical questions about four facets that characterize the holistic ideal of ecosystem services research: (i) biophysical realism of ecosystem data and models; (ii) consideration of trade-offs between ecosystem services; (iii) recognition of off-site effects; and (iv) comprehensive but shrewd involvement of stakeholders within assessment studies. An extended and updated analysis of ecosystem service case studies showed that the majority of these facets were still not addressed by the majority of case studies. Whilst most indicators did not improve within the span analyzed (1996–2013), we found a tendency for an increasing geographical spread of the case studies. Moreover, we incorporated an additional facet, namely the relevance and usability of case study results for the operationalization of the ecosystem service concept. Only a minority of studies addressed this facet sufficiently with no significant trend for improvement over time.

Shifts in ecosystem services in deprived urban areas: understanding people's responses and consequences for well-being

Urban commons are under pressure. City development has led to the encroachment and ecological degradation of urban open space. Although there is growing insight that urban ecosystems need to be protected, there is hardly any attention for the consequences (of both pressures and protection efforts) for vulnerable human population groups. We aim to understand how urban development affects the well-being of the urban poor, through shifts in ecosystem services (ES) and people’s responses to these shifts. We performed household interviews and group mapping sessions in seven urban lake communities in Bangalore, India. Changes at Bangalore’s lakes can be summarized by three trends: privatization followed by conversion, pollution followed by degradation, and restoration followed by gentrification. Over time, this resulted in a shift in the types of ES supplied and demanded, the nature of use, and de facto governance: from provisioning, communal and public; to cultural, individual, and private. Lake dwellers responded by finding (other) sources of income, accepting lower quality or less accessible ES, and/or completely stopping the use of certain ES. The consequences of ecosystem change for people’s well-being differ depending on a household’s ability to adapt and on individual circumstances, land tenure and financial capital in particular. To guarantee a future for Bangalore’s lakes, restoration seems the only viable option. Although beautiful lake parks may be a solution for the well-off and not-too-poor, leaving the very poor without options to adapt to the new circumstances puts them at risk of becoming even more marginalized. We show that ecosystem degradation and restoration alike can impact the well-being of the urban poor. People’s experiences allowed us to couple ecosystem change to well-being through ES and adaptation strategies. Hence, we revealed multiple cause-effect relations. Understanding these relations contributes to sustainable urban development for people from all layers of society.

RETRACTED ARTICLE : The effectiveness of green infrastructure as a climate adaptation strategy for intensively-used landscapes: an example of the great crested newt

This article has been retracted at the request of the authors. After publication the authors detected an error in the dispersal module that estimates colonisation probabilities for dispersing individuals, partially inflating long distance dispersal probabilities. As the dispersal model is at the core of the work presented, this error may have consequences for the results presented and conclusions drawn. While assessing the exact magnitude of the impact of the error is undergoing, the authors believe that the results presented here are too preliminary, for which they requested to retract this publication.