Astrid Rossegger

The consumption of Internet child pornography and violent and sex offending

BackgroundThere is an ongoing debate on whether consumers of child pornography pose a risk for hands-on sex offenses. Up until now, there have been very few studies which have analyzed the association between the consumption of child pornography and the subsequent perpetration of hands-on sex offenses. The aim of this study was to examine the recidivism rates for hands-on and hands-off sex offenses in a sample of child pornography users using a 6 year follow-up design.MethodsThe current study population consisted of 231 men, who were subsequently charged with consumption of illegal pornographic material after being detected by a special operation against Internet child pornography, conducted by the Swiss police in 2002. Criminal history, as well as recidivism, was assessed using the criminal records from 2008.Results4.8% (n = 11) of the study sample had a prior conviction for a sexual and/or violent offense, 1% (n = 2) for a hands-on sex offense, involving child sexual abuse, 3.3% (n = 8) for a hands-off sex offense and one for a nonsexual violent offense. When applying a broad definition of recidivism, which included ongoing investigations, charges and convictions, 3% (n = 7) of the study sample recidivated with a violent and/or sex offense, 3.9% (n = 9) with a hands-off sex offense and 0.8% (n = 2) with a hands-on sex offense.ConclusionConsuming child pornography alone is not a risk factor for committing hands-on sex offenses – at least not for those subjects who had never committed a hands-on sex offense. The majority of the investigated consumers had no previous convictions for hands-on sex offenses. For those offenders, the prognosis for hands-on sex offenses, as well as for recidivism with child pornography, is favorable.

Exposure to the tsunami disaster, PTSD symptoms and increased substance use – an Internet based survey of male and female residents of Switzerland

BackgroundAfter the tsunami disaster in the Indian Ocean basin an Internet based self-screening test was made available in order to facilitate contact with mental health services. Although primarily designed for surviving Swiss tourists as well as relatives and acquaintances of the victims, the screening instrument was open to anyone who felt psychologically affected by this disaster. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influences between self-declared increased substance use in the aftermath of the tsunami disaster, trauma exposure and current PTSD symptoms.MethodsOne section of the screening covered addiction related behavior. We analyzed the relationship between increased substance use, the level of PTSD symptoms and trauma exposure using multivariable logistic regression with substance use as the dependent variable. Included in the study were only subjects who reported being residents of Switzerland and the analyses were stratified by gender in order to control for possible socio-cultural or gender differences in the use of psychotropic substances.ResultsIn women PTSD symptoms and degree of exposure enlarged the odds of increased alcohol, pharmaceuticals and cannabis use significantly. In men the relationship was more specific: PTSD symptoms and degree of exposure only enlarged the odds of increased pharmaceutical consumption significantly. Increases in alcohol, cannabis and tobacco use were only significantly associated with the degree of PTSD symptoms.ConclusionThe tsunami was associated with increased substance use. This study not only replicates earlier findings but also suggests for a gender specificity of post-traumatic substance use increase.

Women convicted for violent offenses: Adverse childhood experiences, low level of education and poor mental health

BackgroundIn past years, the female offender population has grown, leading to an increased interest in the characteristics of female offenders. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of female violent offending in a Swiss offender population and to compare possible socio-demographic and offense-related gender differences.MethodsDescriptive and bivariate logistic regression analyses were performed for a representative sample of N = 203 violent offenders convicted in Zurich, Switzerland.Results7.9% (N = 16) of the sample were female. Significant gender differences were found: Female offenders were more likely to be married, less educated, to have suffered from adverse childhood experiences and to be in poor mental health. Female violent offending was less heterogeneous than male violent offending, in fact there were only three types of violent offenses females were convicted for in our sample: One third were convicted of murder, one third for arson and only one woman was convicted of a sex offense.ConclusionsThe results of our study point toward a gender-specific theory of female offending, as well as toward the importance of developing models for explaining female criminal behavior, which need to be implemented in treatment plans and intervention strategies regarding female offenders.

Accuracy of the Static-99 in Predicting Recidivism in Switzerland

The Static-99 is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument. Various international validation studies have found satisfactory to good predictive validity for the Static-99, with the area under the curve (AUC) between 59% and 95%. This study is the first evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 among sex offenders in Switzerland. The Static-99 scores of 69 violent/sex offenders in Switzerland were assessed using data from their psychiatric assessments. Recidivism was operationalized as reconviction assessed from penal records. The Static-99 risk levels were predictive for recidivism (AUC = .758) among our population. The results are discussed on the basis of the literature.

Predicting violent infractions in a Swiss state penitentiary: A replication study of the PCL-R in a population of sex and violent offenders

BackgroundResearch conducted with forensic psychiatric patients found moderate correlations between violence in institutions and psychopathy. It is unclear though, whether the PCL-R is an accurate instrument for predicting aggressive behavior in prisons. Results seem to indicate that the instrument is better suited for predicting verbal rather than physical aggression of prison inmates.MethodsPCL-R scores were assessed for a sample of 113 imprisoned sex and violent offenders in Switzerland. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate physical and verbal aggression as a function of the PCL-R sum score. Additionally, stratified analyses were conducted for Factor 1 and 2. Infractions were analyzed as to their motives and consequences.ResultsThe mean score of the PCL-R was 12 points. Neither the relationship between physical aggression and the sum score of the PCL-R, nor the relationship between physical aggression and either of the two factors of the PCL-R were significant. Both the sum score and Factor 1 predicted the occurrence of verbal aggression (AUC = 0.70 and 0.69), while Factor 2 did not.ConclusionPossible explanations are discussed for the weak relationship between PCL-R scores and physically aggressive behavior during imprisonment. Some authors have discussed whether the low base rate of violent infractions can be considered an explanation for the non-significant relation between PCL-R-score and violence. The base rate in this study, however, with 27%, was not low. It is proposed that the distinction between reactive and instrumental motives of institutional violence must be considered when examining the usefulness of the PCL-R in predicting in-prison physical aggressive behavior.

Risk Assessment Instruments in Repeat Offending The Usefulness of FOTRES

Research in the area of predicting recidivism has produced several well-validated standardized risk assessment instruments. The question arises, which instruments best serve which purposes? The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare several actuarial and dynamic risk assessment instruments as to their predictive accuracy and their usefulness in forensic practice. The sample consisted of 109 violent and sex offenders who had been released from prison in Switzerland between 1994 and 1999, and for whom the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R); Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20; Level of Service Inventory–Revised; Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG); and the Swiss assessment instrument FOTRES were scored. Using bivariate logistic regression analyses, all instruments were able to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists. The receiver operating characteristic analyses yielded area under the curve values between 0.70 (VRAG) and 0.84 (PCL-R). Furthermore, it was shown that solely examining AUC values does not suffice to determine usefulness. A comprehensive evaluation of an instrument’s usefulness for forensic practice should also look at qualitative criteria such as area of application, specificity of risk assessed, and inclusion of dynamic items among others.

Replicating the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide: A Total Forensic Cohort Study

Introduction The performance of violence risk assessment instruments can be primarily investigated by analysing two psychometric properties: discrimination and calibration. Although many studies have examined the discrimination capacity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and other actuarial risk assessment tools, few have evaluated how well calibrated these instruments are. The aim of the present investigation was to replicate the development study of the VRAG in Europe including measurements of discrimination and calibration. Method Using a prospective study design, we assessed a total cohort of violent offenders in the Zurich Canton of Switzerland using the VRAG prior to discharge from prisons, secure facilities, and outpatient clinics. Assessors adhered strictly to the assessment protocol set out in the instrument’s manual. After controlling for attrition, 206 offenders were followed in the community for a fixed period of 7 years. We used charges and convictions for subsequent violent offenses as the outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted to measure discrimination, and Sanders’ decomposition of the Brier score as well as Bayesian credible intervals were calculated to measure calibration. Results The discrimination of the VRAG’s risk bins was modest (area under the curve = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.63–0.81, p<0.05). However, the calibration of the tool was poor, with Sanders’ calibration score suggesting an average assessment error of 21% in the probabilistic estimates associated with each bin. The Bayesian credible intervals revealed that in five out of nine risk bins the intervals did not contain the expected risk rates. Discussion Measurement of the calibration validity of risk assessment instruments needs to be improved, as has been done with respect to discrimination. Additional replication studies that focus on the calibration of actuarial risk assessment instruments are needed. Meanwhile, we recommend caution when using the VRAG probabilistic risk estimates in practice.

Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) to Predict In-Prison Aggressive Behavior in a Swiss Offender Population:

The present study is a first-time evaluation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guides (VRAG) predictive quality for institutional violence in a German-speaking country. The VRAG was assessed for 106 violent and sexual offenders based on their files. Violent infractions during imprisonment were evaluated using the files of the state penitentiary. Results show in accordance with previous studies only a moderate effect between VRAG scores and institutional misconduct. However, these findings were only significant for participants with a sex crime as index offense. In the study, the VRAG was unable to predict verbal and physical violence by violent offenders. The implications of these findings for institutional risk management and the future development of intramural detection of participants at risk in the German-speaking part of Europe are discussed.

A longitudinal study of mental health symptoms in young prisoners: exploring the influence of personal factors and the correctional climate

BackgroundDespite the high prevalence rate of mental health problems among young prisoners, little is known about the longitudinal course and covariates of their mental health symptoms during incarceration, especially the influence of the correctional climate. The current study aimed: (1) to examine changes in young prisoners’ mental health symptoms during incarceration, (2) to identify personal factors associated with their mental health symptoms and perceptions of the correctional climate, and (3) to test the incremental effect of perceptions of the correctional climate on mental health symptoms.MethodsData were obtained from a sample of 75 youths (aged 17 to 22 years) detained in a Portuguese young offender prison. Data were gathered 1, 3, and 6 months after their admission in this facility. Socio-demographic, clinical and criminological variables were collected. Mental health symptoms and perceptions of the correctional climate were assessed through self-report assessment tools. Linear and logistic (multi-level) regressions and tests for differences between means were performed to analyze the data.ResultsOverall, mental health symptoms marginally declined by the sixth month in prison. Prisoners with a history of mental health treatment were more likely to have increased symptoms. Higher levels of mental health symptoms were associated with a history of mental health treatment, remand status, and a lower educational level. Better perceptions of the correctional climate were associated with Black race and participation in prison activities. A negative perception of the correctional climate was the strongest covariate of young prisoners’ mental health symptoms and had incremental validity over that of personal variables.ConclusionsThe results highlight that both characteristics of the prisoners and of the prison environment influence young prisoners’ mental health. Prison management can try to reduce young prisoners’ mental health problems by developing scientific procedures for their mental health assessment and creating a more beneficial correctional climate.

Der Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) : ein Instrument zur Kriminalprognose bei Gewaltstraftätern

OBJECTIVE Most instruments used for assessing the recidivism risk of an offender with a violent or sex offense have been developed and validated in North America. METHODS The aim of this study is to discuss the state of validation for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG)--an instrument for assessing the recidivism risk of violent offenders. A systematic literature research forms the basis for the processing of the literature. In a second section, a scientific translation of the instrument to German, including the scoring rules, is presented. RESULTS Normally, while examining the validity of the VRAG, there is a focus on the discriminatory power (displayed using the so-called Area Under the Curve [AUC]). These examinations showed a satisfactory to good discriminatory power (AUC: 0.70-- 0.86). A standardization of this instrument for populations in Europe respectively the German-speaking area has not yet taken place. Only few studies have verified whether North American standard values are also valid for Europe. The few studies on this subject question the generalizability of these standard values to other countries. CONCLUSIONS The VRAG can be considered a valid measure for the assessment of recidivism risk in Germany and in Switzerland, although so far, standardization has been dispensed with. The application of the VRAG can provide indications for the evaluation of recidivism risk and be integrated into an individual case-oriented assessment.