Athula Naranpanawa

The economic effects of the Asian Tsunami on the 'tear drop in the Indian Ocean': a general equilibrium analysis.

Sri Lanka is the second worst affected country by the Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) in absolute terms after Indonesia and the most affected country in relative terms of per capita deaths, missing and displaced people. In addition to the damages to public infrastructure and owner-occupied houses, some sectors of the economy such as fishing and tourism have been severely affected. This article demonstrates how a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model can provide some information on the effects of the IOT and on the likely effects of a reconstruction aid package on tsunami affected economies such as Sri Lanka, India and Indonesia. The article indicates that it is important to consider the combined effects of the IOT and the reconstruction package. While the IOT has produced negative economic effects on the economy, the reconstruction package would stimulate the economy.

Garment Industry in Sri Lanka and the Removal of GSP Plus by EU

The ready‐made garment industry plays an important role in Sri Lanka both in terms of export earnings and poverty alleviation through employment generation. Following the removal of GSP Plus by EU in 2010 on the basis of alleged human right violations by the Sri Lankan government during the last stage of the civil war in 2009 and after, it currently faces serious challenges in exporting to the EU, its major market. Given the important role of the ready‐made garment industry in poverty alleviation through employment generation, the impact of removal of GSP plus on the poor is examined in this paper. The empirical results of this study demonstrate that poverty and income inequality are expected to be exacerbated in Sri Lanka as a result of the removal of GSP Plus by the EU using non‐economic reasons such as human rights violation. The results are also relevant for the renewed emphasis on trade preferences as a potential instrument for the Millennium Development Goals and the debate on how trade preferences are to be designed to maximise their effectiveness in stimulating a manufacturing supply response.

Examining Dutch disease across Australian regions

The recent mining boom represents one of the largest external shocks to the Australian economy in its post‐war history. Although most agree that it had a positive effect on the Australian economy as well as on people’s living standards, there is disagreement over the extent to which this boom has caused deindustrialisation and the so‐called Dutch disease in Australia. Our empirical findings support the presence of Dutch disease nationally for Australia using data for the period 1984–2013. Regionally, the results show that Dutch disease was concentrated mainly in the eastern and southern states of Australia—Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.

Can trade liberalisation bring benefits to the war affected regions and create economic stability in post-war Sri Lanka?

Purpose There is a large body of literature on the link between trade liberalisation, growth and poverty. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between trade and regional disparities. The purpose of this paper is to identify and quantify the regional impacts of trade liberalisation, particularly in the war-affected regions and to understand to what extent trade reforms can contribute to the post-war recovery process and long-term economic and political stability in Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach The authors developed a single country multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sri Lankan economy to meet the need for a detailed country study as emphasised in the recent literature. Findings Both short-run and long-run results suggest that all regions including war-affected regions in the country gain from trade liberalisation, although gains are uneven across regions. Furthermore, the results suggest that war-affected regions gain more relative to some other regions in the long run. Originality/value According to the best of the authors’ knowledge within country regional impact of trade liberalisation using a multi-regional CGE model has never been attempted for Sri Lanka. The results of this study, even though based on Sri Lankan data, will be relevant to other developing countries engulfed in internal conflicts with regional economic disparities.